The AI Stock ‘Peak Spending’ Panic Just Lost Its ‘Ehrlich Bet’

InvestorPlace08-18 20:08

Meet Luke Lango Listen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI). On an October morning, Julian Simon opened his mail and found a check for $576.07, signed by Paul Ehrlich, the ...

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Cedric77
08-18 22:17
Cedric77
Abstracted from FB iWealth : 🚨指引能否再上調？Nebius Q2 財報前瞻：高估值打滿預期，電力交付與“輕資產”模式成決勝關鍵！💻🤖 新興 AI 雲巨頭 Nebius Group（NBIS.US）將於 2026 年 8 月 12 日公佈 2026 財年第二季度（2Q26）財報。作爲 AI 算力基礎設施的核心標的，市場核心焦點在於：極其強勁的算力需求能否轉化爲更高額的 2026 財年營收指引、更快的電力變現速度，以及對 2027 年更清晰的長期業績確定性！一、財報三大核心看點與博弈焦點硬核拆解 📊 1️⃣ 🎯 2026 指引能否再次上調？博弈門檻已被大幅擡高業績指引 vs 市場預期：Nebius 目前對 2026 年的官方營收指引爲 30 億–34 億美元，而 Visible Alpha 機構一致預期已達 33.6 億美元（逼近指引上限），高盛更是預測高達 35.9 億美元。門檻大幅擡高：鑑於上一季度產能已被訂滿、合同期限拉長且客戶預付比例增加，僅維持原指引可能已無法滿足市場預期。唯有進一步上調指引或提供更強的 2027 年 ARR（年化可重複收入）確定性，方能刺激股價破局。高估值透支遠期增長：高盛預計 NBIS 2026E EV/Sales 約爲 18.1 倍，但隨着 2027 年營收預計暴增至 137.1 億美元，遠期估值將快速壓降至 6.1 倍，顯示市場已極度打滿未來的高增長預期。 2️⃣ ⚡ 簽約電力到實際變現：產能落地與客戶結構雙重檢驗電力轉化效率：公司此前已鎖定超 3.5 GW 的簽約電力，並計劃年底突破 4 GW。投資者將嚴審新數據中心通電進度、GPU 投產節奏及簽約電力向現金流轉化的速率。輕資產模式（Asset-Light）潛力：新推出的輕資產模式允許合作方在其數據中心部署 Nebius 全棧 AI 雲平臺。若該模

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signed by Paul Ehrlich, the Stanford biologist whose book “The Population Bomb” warned that humanity was running out of resources. Simon, an economist, was sick of hearing about it. So he made Ehrlich an offer. Pick any raw materials you want, pick any date more than a year out, and we settle this with money.\nEhrlich chose chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Two hundred dollars of each cost $1,000 total, priced in 1980. If that basket was valued more over a decade later, Simon would pay the difference. If it cost less, Ehrlich would be on the hook.\nThe world added more than 800 million people over those 10 years. Every one of those five metals cheapened in value (after adjusting for inflation). Ehrlich wrote the check.\nI keep thinking about that check, because Wall Street channeled its inner Ehrlich on bet concerning artificial intelligence stocks.\nIn a nutshell, critics rebranded the “scarcity” story as a “peak spending” story. The claim was that hyperscaler capital budgets had topped out, so everyone who bought into the buildout was about to watch as it dried up. That narrative blew up a lot of AI stocks. It took 30%, 40%, and 50% out of some of the strongest businesses in the AI infrastructure complex.\nThen earnings season arrived with a bang.\nThe peak spending thesis is complete hogwash, and the past two weeks prove it emphatically. \nSo let me walk you through what these companies reported, what the July inflation print does to the rate picture, and why the buy window that just opened does not extend to the rest of the market. You can watch me discuss this in full in the latest episode of Being Exponential With Luke Lango below:\n\n\nThe Neoclouds Settled the Argument\nHyperscalers tell you how much they plan to spend. Chip vendors tell you what is shipping. The Neoclouds tell you something better: whether customers actually rent that infrastructure, what price they pay for it, and how long they commit to it. Utilization, pricing, and forward commitments. That is the read on real demand, and we just heard from the two biggest players in the group.\nCoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) grew revenue about 112% year-over-year to $2.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion at a 59% margin. Management guided to an annualized run rate of $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion by year-end. The company finished the second quarter with a $104 billion backlog, up 246%.\nNebius Group N.V. (NBIS) grew faster, which is one reason I recommend it as my favorite name in the space. Revenue jumped 454% to $582 million. Annualized run-rate revenue climbed 56% sequentially to $3 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million at a 41% margin. Committed backlog sits above $40 billion, and management said it could sell out all of its planned 2027 capacity today.\nTriple-digit revenue growth with 40%-plus margins. You could not dream up better numbers.\nHere is the line that matters most. Both companies said newly deployed capacity sells out the moment it comes online. Physical supply is the binding constraint on growth right now. Demand sits there waiting for racks to get plugged in.\nThat was a rough week to be short Nebius.\nOptics Delivered the Knockout\nThen we heard from Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE), one of my favorite optics names and one of my favorite AI infrastructure names, clean and plain.\nFourth-quarter revenue grew 109% year-over-year. And the first-quarter guide calls for roughly 130% growth.\nSit with that, because it is the most important data point of the past two weeks. A company doing triple-digit revenue growth is guiding for faster triple-digit revenue growth. In a peak spending world, a high-octane supplier like Lumentum decelerates quarter over quarter. Instead, the growth rate accelerates. The pie is getting bigger, and the rate at which it gets bigger is going up too.\nThe structural story is simple. Every new GPU generation produces more data, runs at faster lane speeds, and demands more bandwidth at lower latency, so AI creates a permanent increase in optical content per system – 800G today, 1.6T and 200G per lane through 2027, then co-packaged optics around 2027 to 2028.\nLumentum is clearly winning dollar share. That does not translate one-for-one to Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI), Coherent Corp. (COHR), or Fabrinet (FN), though it tells you the whole market is doing extremely well. Fabrinet has the weakest chart in the group, which may make it the most attractively positioned name in it.\nHon Hai, Astera Labs, Arista Networks, Lattice Semiconductor, TTM Technologies, SiTime, and GlobalFoundries all reported the same way. When a narrative runs headfirst into a wall of data that rejects it this emphatically, the narrative loses.\nSentiment and Fundamentals Have to Reattach\nIn July, sentiment and fundamentals detached. Chicken Little took over the tape while the underlying businesses kept compounding.\nDetachments like that resolve one of two ways. Either fundamentals weaken to meet the narrative, or the narrative strengthens to meet the fundamentals. Two weeks of earnings just told us fundamentals are strengthening, so sentiment has to come up. Both the SMH and the SOXX put in V-shaped recoveries off their 100-day moving averages with oversold RSI readings and bullish MACD crossovers. Technical confirmation now sits alongside earnings confirmation.\nThe macro cooperated too. July CPI came in soft enough to weaken the case for another Fed hike without signaling that the economy is falling apart. Core inflation slowed to 2.5%, its lowest reading in roughly five years, and core CPI is running at 1.6% annualized over the past three months. That real-time trend sits below target while the economy shed about 20,000 jobs in July. Nobody hikes into that. Take the hike off the table, and lower long-term yields feed straight into long-duration assets like AI stocks.\nThe read for consumer stocks is uglier. Wage growth of 3.2% against 3.4% headline inflation leaves real wages negative again, and that weakness shows up in prints like Dutch Bros and Sweetgreen. The bifurcation that has defined this market since ChatGPT launched persists.\nSo the buy window is open. And the buy window is open for AI.\nWhich AI, Though?\nThat question is where good investors go wrong.\nBetween Louis Navellier, Eric Fry, and me, InvestorPlace published more than 200 recommendations in the past year, the vast majority connected to AI in some way. You could be right about every theme in this article and still end up with a refrigerator full of ingredients and no meal. Owning the right AI companies is half the job. How much you own of each one, and what you own alongside it, decides your outcome.\nSo Louis, Eric, and I went through our entire universe of AI research and hand-picked the best ideas in it. Plus, Louis is announcing something Wednesday that he has never done in 47 years in this business.\nI cannot go further today. What I can do is make sure you hear it first.\nAdd your name to the AI Revolution signup list right here. Once you’re on the list, you’ll get the announcement the moment it goes live Wednesday, no need to do anything further except listen to what we have in store for you.\nAnd for the full breakdown of these earnings, the charts, and the macro picture, watch this week’s episode of Being Exponential.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n89485 10.7492C4.20243 10.4901 4.42907 10.474 4.59095 10.4578C5.40038 10.5387 5.62702 11.5424 5.43276 12.449Z\" fill=\"#00A000\">\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSubmit\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n Luke Lango\nEditor, Hypergrowth Investing\n\n\nMeet Luke Lango\nBy uncovering early investments in hypergrowth industries, Luke Lango puts you on the ground-floor of world-changing megatrends.\n\n\n\n\n\t\t\t\tLearn more about Luke\t\t\t\n\n\n\n\n\nArticle printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2026/08/the-ai-stock-peak-spending-panic-just-lost-its-ehrlich-bet/.\n©2026 InvestorPlace Media, LLC","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":598164008677432,"gmtCreate":1787062622215,"gmtModify":1787066786973,"author":{"id":"3575196385895354","authorId":"3575196385895354","name":"Cedric77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5ee082b05004f20d3486afedee30814","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}],"idStr":"3575196385895354","authorIdStr":"3575196385895354"},"htmlText":"Abstracted from FB iWealth : 🚨指引能否再上調？Nebius Q2 財報前瞻：高估值打滿預期，電力交付與“輕資產”模式成決勝關鍵！💻🤖 新興 AI 雲巨頭 Nebius Group（NBIS.US） 將於 2026 年 8 月 12 日公佈 2026 財年第二季度（2Q26）財報。作爲 AI 算力基礎設施的核心標的，市場核心焦點在於：極其強勁的算力需求能否轉化爲更高額的 2026 財年營收指引、更快的電力變現速度，以及對 2027 年更清晰的長期業績確定性！ 一、 財報三大核心看點與博弈焦點硬核拆解 📊 1️⃣ 🎯 2026 指引能否再次上調？博弈門檻已被大幅擡高 業績指引 vs 市場預期：Nebius 目前對 2026 年的官方營收指引爲 30 億–34 億美元，而 Visible Alpha 機構一致預期已達 33.6 億美元（逼近指引上限），高盛更是預測高達 35.9 億美元。 門檻大幅擡高：鑑於上一季度產能已被訂滿、合同期限拉長且客戶預付比例增加，僅維持原指引可能已無法滿足市場預期。唯有進一步上調指引或提供更強的 2027 年 ARR（年化可重複收入）確定性，方能刺激股價破局。 高估值透支遠期增長：高盛預計 NBIS 2026E EV/Sales 約爲 18.1 倍，但隨着 2027 年營收預計暴增至 137.1 億美元，遠期估值將快速壓降至 6.1 倍，顯示市場已極度打滿未來的高增長預期。 2️⃣ ⚡ 簽約電力到實際變現：產能落地與客戶結構雙重檢驗 電力轉化效率：公司此前已鎖定超 3.5 GW 的簽約電力，並計劃年底突破 4 GW。投資者將嚴審新數據中心通電進度、GPU 投產節奏及簽約電力向現金流轉化的速率。 輕資產模式（Asset-Light）潛力：新推出的輕資產模式允許合作方在其數據中心部署 Nebius 全棧 AI 雲平臺。若該模","listText":"Abstracted from FB iWealth : 🚨指引能否再上調？Nebius Q2 財報前瞻：高估值打滿預期，電力交付與“輕資產”模式成決勝關鍵！💻🤖 新興 AI 雲巨頭 Nebius Group（NBIS.US） 將於 2026 年 8 月 12 日公佈 2026 財年第二季度（2Q26）財報。作爲 AI 算力基礎設施的核心標的，市場核心焦點在於：極其強勁的算力需求能否轉化爲更高額的 2026 財年營收指引、更快的電力變現速度，以及對 2027 年更清晰的長期業績確定性！ 一、 財報三大核心看點與博弈焦點硬核拆解 📊 1️⃣ 🎯 2026 指引能否再次上調？博弈門檻已被大幅擡高 業績指引 vs 市場預期：Nebius 目前對 2026 年的官方營收指引爲 30 億–34 億美元，而 Visible Alpha 機構一致預期已達 33.6 億美元（逼近指引上限），高盛更是預測高達 35.9 億美元。 門檻大幅擡高：鑑於上一季度產能已被訂滿、合同期限拉長且客戶預付比例增加，僅維持原指引可能已無法滿足市場預期。唯有進一步上調指引或提供更強的 2027 年 ARR（年化可重複收入）確定性，方能刺激股價破局。 高估值透支遠期增長：高盛預計 NBIS 2026E EV/Sales 約爲 18.1 倍，但隨着 2027 年營收預計暴增至 137.1 億美元，遠期估值將快速壓降至 6.1 倍，顯示市場已極度打滿未來的高增長預期。 2️⃣ ⚡ 簽約電力到實際變現：產能落地與客戶結構雙重檢驗 電力轉化效率：公司此前已鎖定超 3.5 GW 的簽約電力，並計劃年底突破 4 GW。投資者將嚴審新數據中心通電進度、GPU 投產節奏及簽約電力向現金流轉化的速率。 輕資產模式（Asset-Light）潛力：新推出的輕資產模式允許合作方在其數據中心部署 Nebius 全棧 AI 雲平臺。若該模","text":"Abstracted from FB iWealth : 🚨指引能否再上調？Nebius Q2 財報前瞻：高估值打滿預期，電力交付與“輕資產”模式成決勝關鍵！💻🤖 新興 AI 雲巨頭 Nebius Group（NBIS.US） 將於 2026 年 8 月 12 日公佈 2026 財年第二季度（2Q26）財報。作爲 AI 算力基礎設施的核心標的，市場核心焦點在於：極其強勁的算力需求能否轉化爲更高額的 2026 財年營收指引、更快的電力變現速度，以及對 2027 年更清晰的長期業績確定性！ 一、 財報三大核心看點與博弈焦點硬核拆解 📊 1️⃣ 🎯 2026 指引能否再次上調？博弈門檻已被大幅擡高 業績指引 vs 市場預期：Nebius 目前對 2026 年的官方營收指引爲 30 億–34 億美元，而 Visible Alpha 機構一致預期已達 33.6 億美元（逼近指引上限），高盛更是預測高達 35.9 億美元。 門檻大幅擡高：鑑於上一季度產能已被訂滿、合同期限拉長且客戶預付比例增加，僅維持原指引可能已無法滿足市場預期。唯有進一步上調指引或提供更強的 2027 年 ARR（年化可重複收入）確定性，方能刺激股價破局。 高估值透支遠期增長：高盛預計 NBIS 2026E EV/Sales 約爲 18.1 倍，但隨着 2027 年營收預計暴增至 137.1 億美元，遠期估值將快速壓降至 6.1 倍，顯示市場已極度打滿未來的高增長預期。 2️⃣ ⚡ 簽約電力到實際變現：產能落地與客戶結構雙重檢驗 電力轉化效率：公司此前已鎖定超 3.5 GW 的簽約電力，並計劃年底突破 4 GW。投資者將嚴審新數據中心通電進度、GPU 投產節奏及簽約電力向現金流轉化的速率。 輕資產模式（Asset-Light）潛力：新推出的輕資產模式允許合作方在其數據中心部署 Nebius 全棧 AI 雲平臺。若該模","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/598164008677432","repostId":2660462969,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2660462969","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1787054880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2660462969?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-08-18 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The AI Stock ‘Peak Spending’ Panic Just Lost Its ‘Ehrlich Bet’","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2660462969","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Luke Lango breaks down the earnings that dismantled the peak spending narrative, what the July CPI print means for rates, and why the AI stock buying window reopened.","content":"<div>\n<p>Meet Luke Lango\t\t\n\n\n\n\nListen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).\nOn an October morning, Julian Simon opened his mail and found a check for $576.07, signed by Paul Ehrlich, the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2026/08/the-ai-stock-peak-spending-panic-just-lost-its-ehrlich-bet/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The AI Stock ‘Peak Spending’ Panic Just Lost Its ‘Ehrlich Bet’</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe AI Stock ‘Peak Spending’ Panic Just Lost Its ‘Ehrlich Bet’\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-18 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2026/08/the-ai-stock-peak-spending-panic-just-lost-its-ehrlich-bet/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Meet Luke Lango\t\t\n\n\n\n\nListen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).\nOn an October morning, Julian Simon opened his mail and found a check for $576.07, signed by Paul Ehrlich, the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2026/08/the-ai-stock-peak-spending-panic-just-lost-its-ehrlich-bet/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CORD":"T-REX 2X INVERSE CRWV DAILY TARGET ETF","CWVX":"2倍做多CRWV ETF-Tradr","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0106261612.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALLER COMPANIES IMPACT \"A\" ACC","BK4145":"电子制造服务","SOXL":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily","LU0823431563.USD":"BNP PARIBAS RUSSIA EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","SMH":"半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs","IE00B66KJ199.SGD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY  \" A\" (SGD) ACC","LITX":"Tradr 2X Long LITE Daily ETF","LUMA":"KraneShares Photonic and Optical ETF","BK4097":"系统软件","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","IE0031619046.USD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION 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Lango\t\t\n\n\n\n\nListen to the audio version of this article (generated by AI).\nOn an October morning, Julian Simon opened his mail and found a check for $576.07, signed by Paul Ehrlich, the Stanford biologist whose book “The Population Bomb” warned that humanity was running out of resources. Simon, an economist, was sick of hearing about it. So he made Ehrlich an offer. Pick any raw materials you want, pick any date more than a year out, and we settle this with money.\nEhrlich chose chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Two hundred dollars of each cost $1,000 total, priced in 1980. If that basket was valued more over a decade later, Simon would pay the difference. If it cost less, Ehrlich would be on the hook.\nThe world added more than 800 million people over those 10 years. Every one of those five metals cheapened in value (after adjusting for inflation). Ehrlich wrote the check.\nI keep thinking about that check, because Wall Street channeled its inner Ehrlich on bet concerning artificial intelligence stocks.\nIn a nutshell, critics rebranded the “scarcity” story as a “peak spending” story. The claim was that hyperscaler capital budgets had topped out, so everyone who bought into the buildout was about to watch as it dried up. That narrative blew up a lot of AI stocks. It took 30%, 40%, and 50% out of some of the strongest businesses in the AI infrastructure complex.\nThen earnings season arrived with a bang.\nThe peak spending thesis is complete hogwash, and the past two weeks prove it emphatically. \nSo let me walk you through what these companies reported, what the July inflation print does to the rate picture, and why the buy window that just opened does not extend to the rest of the market. You can watch me discuss this in full in the latest episode of Being Exponential With Luke Lango below:\n\n\nThe Neoclouds Settled the Argument\nHyperscalers tell you how much they plan to spend. Chip vendors tell you what is shipping. The Neoclouds tell you something better: whether customers actually rent that infrastructure, what price they pay for it, and how long they commit to it. Utilization, pricing, and forward commitments. That is the read on real demand, and we just heard from the two biggest players in the group.\nCoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) grew revenue about 112% year-over-year to $2.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion at a 59% margin. Management guided to an annualized run rate of $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion by year-end. The company finished the second quarter with a $104 billion backlog, up 246%.\nNebius Group N.V. (NBIS) grew faster, which is one reason I recommend it as my favorite name in the space. Revenue jumped 454% to $582 million. Annualized run-rate revenue climbed 56% sequentially to $3 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached $236 million at a 41% margin. Committed backlog sits above $40 billion, and management said it could sell out all of its planned 2027 capacity today.\nTriple-digit revenue growth with 40%-plus margins. You could not dream up better numbers.\nHere is the line that matters most. Both companies said newly deployed capacity sells out the moment it comes online. Physical supply is the binding constraint on growth right now. Demand sits there waiting for racks to get plugged in.\nThat was a rough week to be short Nebius.\nOptics Delivered the Knockout\nThen we heard from Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE), one of my favorite optics names and one of my favorite AI infrastructure names, clean and plain.\nFourth-quarter revenue grew 109% year-over-year. And the first-quarter guide calls for roughly 130% growth.\nSit with that, because it is the most important data point of the past two weeks. A company doing triple-digit revenue growth is guiding for faster triple-digit revenue growth. In a peak spending world, a high-octane supplier like Lumentum decelerates quarter over quarter. Instead, the growth rate accelerates. The pie is getting bigger, and the rate at which it gets bigger is going up too.\nThe structural story is simple. Every new GPU generation produces more data, runs at faster lane speeds, and demands more bandwidth at lower latency, so AI creates a permanent increase in optical content per system – 800G today, 1.6T and 200G per lane through 2027, then co-packaged optics around 2027 to 2028.\nLumentum is clearly winning dollar share. That does not translate one-for-one to Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI), Coherent Corp. (COHR), or Fabrinet (FN), though it tells you the whole market is doing extremely well. Fabrinet has the weakest chart in the group, which may make it the most attractively positioned name in it.\nHon Hai, Astera Labs, Arista Networks, Lattice Semiconductor, TTM Technologies, SiTime, and GlobalFoundries all reported the same way. When a narrative runs headfirst into a wall of data that rejects it this emphatically, the narrative loses.\nSentiment and Fundamentals Have to Reattach\nIn July, sentiment and fundamentals detached. Chicken Little took over the tape while the underlying businesses kept compounding.\nDetachments like that resolve one of two ways. Either fundamentals weaken to meet the narrative, or the narrative strengthens to meet the fundamentals. Two weeks of earnings just told us fundamentals are strengthening, so sentiment has to come up. Both the SMH and the SOXX put in V-shaped recoveries off their 100-day moving averages with oversold RSI readings and bullish MACD crossovers. Technical confirmation now sits alongside earnings confirmation.\nThe macro cooperated too. July CPI came in soft enough to weaken the case for another Fed hike without signaling that the economy is falling apart. Core inflation slowed to 2.5%, its lowest reading in roughly five years, and core CPI is running at 1.6% annualized over the past three months. That real-time trend sits below target while the economy shed about 20,000 jobs in July. Nobody hikes into that. Take the hike off the table, and lower long-term yields feed straight into long-duration assets like AI stocks.\nThe read for consumer stocks is uglier. Wage growth of 3.2% against 3.4% headline inflation leaves real wages negative again, and that weakness shows up in prints like Dutch Bros and Sweetgreen. The bifurcation that has defined this market since ChatGPT launched persists.\nSo the buy window is open. And the buy window is open for AI.\nWhich AI, Though?\nThat question is where good investors go wrong.\nBetween Louis Navellier, Eric Fry, and me, InvestorPlace published more than 200 recommendations in the past year, the vast majority connected to AI in some way. You could be right about every theme in this article and still end up with a refrigerator full of ingredients and no meal. Owning the right AI companies is half the job. How much you own of each one, and what you own alongside it, decides your outcome.\nSo Louis, Eric, and I went through our entire universe of AI research and hand-picked the best ideas in it. Plus, Louis is announcing something Wednesday that he has never done in 47 years in this business.\nI cannot go further today. What I can do is make sure you hear it first.\nAdd your name to the AI Revolution signup list right here. Once you’re on the list, you’ll get the announcement the moment it goes live Wednesday, no need to do anything further except listen to what we have in store for you.\nAnd for the full breakdown of these earnings, the charts, and the macro picture, watch this week’s episode of Being Exponential.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n89485 10.7492C4.20243 10.4901 4.42907 10.474 4.59095 10.4578C5.40038 10.5387 5.62702 11.5424 5.43276 12.449Z\" fill=\"#00A000\">\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSubmit\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n Luke Lango\nEditor, Hypergrowth Investing\n\n\nMeet Luke Lango\nBy uncovering early investments in hypergrowth industries, Luke Lango puts you on the ground-floor of world-changing megatrends.\n\n\n\n\n\t\t\t\tLearn more about Luke\t\t\t\n\n\n\n\n\nArticle printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2026/08/the-ai-stock-peak-spending-panic-just-lost-its-ehrlich-bet/.\n©2026 InvestorPlace Media, LLC","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SMH":1.84,"CRWG":0.6,"NBIS":1.93,"FN":1.81,"EGGY":0.6,"FOTO":0.6,"CORD":0.6,"LITX":0.6,"LUMA":0.6,"LITG":0.6,"NBIG":0.6,"NBIZ":0.6,"SOXX":1.84,"LAZR":0.6,"CRWU":0.6,"CWII":0.6,"CRWV":1.93,"SOXL":0.6,"CWVX":0.6,"NEBX":0.6,"NBIL":0.6,"SOXS":0.6,"LITE":1.91,"SMHU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.47.1","shortVersion":"4.47.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2660462969","isCrawlerRequest":true}