Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) reports third-quarter earnings Monday, days after a report that Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is negotiating access to at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites to build a nationwide mobile network.
The news sent Verizon and other major telecom stocks lower Friday, raising fresh concerns about competition from Musk’s Starlink.
Wall Street expects adjusted earnings of $1.27 per share on revenue of approximately $34.84 billion.
What Prediction Markets Are Saying
On Kalshi, traders are betting on which specific words CEO Dan Schulman and his team will say during Monday’s earnings call.
"Loyalty" leads at 92%. Verizon launched a loyalty program in June, offering customers 3% back and eliminating certain fees to discourage them from switching carriers.
Its consumer phone churn rate fell to 0.84% last quarter from 0.90% in the previous quarter.
"Headwind" sits at 86%, compared with 64% for "Tailwind." The odds reflect expected word usage, not Verizon’s financial outlook.
"Synergy" is at 85%. Verizon completed its $20 billion acquisition of Frontier Communications in January, substantially expanding its fiber network and its ability to sell mobile and home internet together.
The company expects at least $500 million in annual cost savings by the third year through combining the two businesses.
"AI Connect" is at 84%. That’s the name of Verizon’s business offering high-capacity fiber connections and other infrastructure to companies developing and running AI systems.
Google signed a deal worth more than $1 billion to connect its data centers using Verizon’s fiber network.
"Satellite" is at 81%, while "Spectrum" sits at 78%.
Schulman argued in September that Starlink “just can’t compete without a terrestrial network in urban and suburban [areas],” which account for nearly all Verizon’s revenue.
Since then, SpaceX has agreed to acquire low-band spectrum and is reportedly negotiating access to 80,000 cell sites, moving toward precisely the infrastructure Schulman said it lacked.
The spectrum deal sent Verizon shares down 8.75% on Oct. 9, their worst single-day decline since 2002.
"Rural" is at 50%.
Schulman previously identified rural areas as Starlink’s natural market, arguing that satellites complement conventional networks rather than replace them.
Verizon also formally launched a satellite connectivity joint venture with AT&T and T-Mobile on Oct. 1, following an initial announcement in May.
"5G" is at 44%, while "C-Band," a key component of Verizon’s wireless spectrum holdings, sits at just 28%.
Reading the Board
Traders expect Schulman to emphasize customer loyalty, the benefits of Verizon’s acquisitions and its growing AI infrastructure business.
But satellite competition is also near the top of the list. Neither "SpaceX" nor "Starlink" appears as a listed word in the Kalshi market, although recent developments could put Musk’s mobile ambitions on the agenda.
A successful Starlink mobile network could eventually put pressure on prices and profit margins at America’s three established wireless carriers.
The earnings call begins at 8:30 a.m. ET Monday.
Telecom analyst Roger Entner previously told Benzinga that SpaceX would likely build its mobile network from rural America toward major cities, rather than immediately challenging established carriers in their strongest markets.
Image: Shutterstock
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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