Smoothed recession probabilities are in the basement

Market_Chart
2025-04-09

October 2023: US 10-yr bond yields 5% , "Strong economy, no recession."

Oct 2023: Positive Fiscal Impulse

April 2025: US 10-yr bond yield 4.37%, "bond market is crashing, recession imminent."

Apr 2025: Negative Fiscal Impulse

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

You cannot make this up. via Bloomberg.

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Smoothed #recession probabilities are in the basement, as low as they can go. There is only a recession in sentiment currently, not the real hard data, despite Larry "fake the funk" Fink's suggestion. A recession will demand current endogeny is sustained (tariffs).

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At this pace, President Donald J. Trump will produce the WORST $S&P 500(.SPX)$ return in 1st 75 days of a presidency... in history (currently -16%).

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TLT Outruns IEF: How Much Duration Is the Market Buying?
IEF gained 1.08% and TLT 1.87% as the 10-year Treasury yield fell over 17 basis points to 4.972%, its lowest since Sept. 23. Equity weakness, AI credit concerns, and safe-haven demand supported bonds, though oil near $100 keeps inflation risks alive. Bulls favor TLT if growth cools; bears warn long duration is vulnerable to inflation and rate repricing. What macro signal would justify extending duration from IEF to TLT?
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