Praveenh
04-23

Amazon is the strongest fundamental story of everything we’ve discussed. Trailing revenue of $717B, net income of $77.7B, 50% gross margins  — this is a genuinely diversified, profitable machine. AWS is growing at 24% year-over-year on a $142B annualized run rate, winning major enterprise deals across OpenAI, Visa, the US Air Force, BlackRock and others.  The advertising business is now at an $85B annualized run rate  — most people still underestimate how big that is. Earnings report on April 29 — not yet out. The one real risk to watch: Amazon’s Leo satellite program adds ~$1B in year-over-year costs in Q1 alone , and tariffs create uncertainty for its retail margins. Recommendation: Buy or hold with conviction. Of everything in this list, Amazon has the most durable, multi-engine business model. AWS + advertising alone justify the valuation. If you don’t own it, the April 29 earnings are your entry signal — a beat on AWS growth above 28% with strong operating income would confirm the thesis. This is the one name where you don’t need to be clever about timing.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Amazon Falls 2.3% — Bezos Overhang or Scrutiny Over AI Spending?
Amazon −2.32% Tuesday, down on a day the S&P 500 and Dow both set records, still absorbing Monday evening's filing from Bezos to sell 15 million shares. Meanwhile the company is using Prime Video as its AI showcase — proof, it argues, that the spending has somewhere to go. The same week, its earnings call drew the sharpest questions yet on capex and returns. A $3 trillion market cap moved the debate from how big Amazon is to whether the money is well spent. One signal is a founder selling; the other is a narrative that hasn't cleared yet. Which one is actually informative?
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Comments

  • Adz5150
    05-01
    Adz5150
    Hard to disagree on the quality of the story. I just think the next debate is less about revenue strength and more about whether returns on that infrastructure spend stay high enough to support valuation.
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