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07-02
Bearish in the near term. Sometimes the market confuses a great company with a great investment opportunity. I have no doubt SK Hynix is one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI demand and its HBM leadership is impressive. The problem is that everyone already knows this. Expectations are extremely high and the stock has already enjoyed a huge run. ADR listings often create excitement before turning into sell-the-news events as early investors lock in gains. The semiconductor industry has repeatedly taught investors that shortages eventually become oversupply and pricing power eventually attracts competition. AI may delay the cycle but probably cannot eliminate it entirely. I would love to own the company, but I would prefer to buy fear rather than excitement. @Frisbee
Memory Prices Up Over 500% — Does That Still Count as Good News?
Memory rallied Thursday on a line from Intel's CEO: memory prices are up more than 500%. Micron +5.50% to $977.50, SanDisk +6.21% to $1,614.39, SK Hynix +4.64% to $182.99. Intel led them all, +7.67% to $108.80, on a second day of the SK Hynix foundry reports, which several outlets say is still not a deal. Wednesday the foundry rose 4% and memory sat still; Thursday memory caught up. Worth noting who said it. The 500% is a buyer describing what it now pays, not a seller reporting what it now earns. Same sentence, read as a cost complaint and as a bull case. Which is it?
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