Let's be real — watching NVDA -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Let's be real — watching NVDA go from $236 to under $200 in under two months hurts. I've been holding calls through this and it's been a rough few weeks. But here's what I keep coming back to when I look at the actual numbers.

Bloomberg ran an analysis this week pointing out that after shedding roughly $1 trillion in market cap since its May 14 all-time high, Nvidia is now trading at its cheapest valuation since before the AI boom. Let that sink in. The stock that led the entire AI trade is now cheaper on a forward earnings basis than Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. One analyst specifically called it "compelling value" — and the math backs that up when you look at the 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates.

So what's causing the disconnect? The business is genuinely accelerating. Q1 FY27 revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year. Q2 guidance is $91 billion. Management just approved an $80 billion share buyback. And SemiAnalysis — a semiconductor research firm I follow closely — wrote this week that Nvidia could actually beat Wall Street's H2 estimates by another 20%. Goldman Sachs estimates that NVDA and Micron together are going to drive 40% of the entire S&P 500's Q2 earnings growth. That's not a company in trouble.

The selling is coming from rotation and sentiment, not fundamentals. Hedge funds have been offloading tech at record pace — the Goldman note this week confirmed that. Michael Burry disclosed a short position against NVDA too, which always creates headlines even if his track record on tech shorts is mixed at best. And the broader semi sector is going through a reality check after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ran 74% in 2026 — NVDA just happened to be the one that everyone piled into, so it's the one getting sold hardest.

Technically, the stock needs to clear $200.23 for any short-term recovery to be confirmed. The $192–$193 zone is critical support, where the 200-day moving average sits. If that holds, the bounce setup is real. If it breaks, you wait for $189.85 before looking at entries again.

Nvidia Drops 2.3% a Week Before Earnings — 50% Upside or Bubble?

Nvidia −2.34% Tuesday, a week out from August 26 earnings. BofA sees roughly 55% upside after pricing in AI risk, and notes institutions are still underweight — unusual, in a week when memory and second-tier compute are called crowded trades. The bear case is financing: Nvidia is backing about $105bn of lease guarantees for OpenAI's Ohio data center, which Gundlach likened to "bonds collateralized by bananas"; Huang denies it is circular. On competition, Cerebras claims the fastest accelerator and Groq raised $350m. Add before earnings, wait for the minutes, or rotate to Broadcom?

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BofA sees roughly 55% upside after pricing in AI risk, and notes institutions are still underweight — unusual, in a week when memory and second-tier compute are called crowded trades. The bear case is financing: Nvidia is backing about $105bn of lease guarantees for OpenAI's Ohio data center, which Gundlach likened to \"bonds collateralized by bananas\"; Huang denies it is circular. On competition, Cerebras claims the fastest accelerator and Groq raised $350m. Add before earnings, wait for the minutes, or rotate to Broadcom?\n\n","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b41155e98aed5ef07f32e2a10551be8a"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Let's be real — watching NVDA go from $236 to under $200 in under two months hurts. I've been holding calls through this and it's been a rough few weeks. But here's what I keep coming back to when I look at the actual numbers.</p>\n<p>Bloomberg ran an analysis this week pointing out that after shedding roughly $1 trillion in market cap since its May 14 all-time high, Nvidia is now trading at its cheapest valuation since before the AI boom. Let that sink in. The stock that led the entire AI trade is now cheaper on a forward earnings basis than Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. One analyst specifically called it \"compelling value\" — and the math backs that up when you look at the 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates.</p>\n<p>So what's causing the disconnect? The business is genuinely accelerating. Q1 FY27 revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year. Q2 guidance is $91 billion. Management just approved an $80 billion share buyback. And SemiAnalysis — a semiconductor research firm I follow closely — wrote this week that Nvidia could actually beat Wall Street's H2 estimates by another 20%. Goldman Sachs estimates that NVDA and Micron together are going to drive 40% of the entire S&amp;P 500's Q2 earnings growth. That's not a company in trouble.</p>\n<p>The selling is coming from rotation and sentiment, not fundamentals. Hedge funds have been offloading tech at record pace — the Goldman note this week confirmed that. Michael Burry disclosed a short position against NVDA too, which always creates headlines even if his track record on tech shorts is mixed at best. And the broader semi sector is going through a reality check after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ran 74% in 2026 — NVDA just happened to be the one that everyone piled into, so it's the one getting sold hardest.</p>\n<p>Technically, the stock needs to clear $200.23 for any short-term recovery to be confirmed. The $192–$193 zone is critical support, where the 200-day moving average sits. If that holds, the bounce setup is real. If it breaks, you wait for $189.85 before looking at entries again.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Let's be real — watching NVDA go from $236 to under $200 in under two months hurts. I've been holding calls through this and it's been a rough few weeks. But here's what I keep coming back to when I look at the actual numbers.</p>\n<p>Bloomberg ran an analysis this week pointing out that after shedding roughly $1 trillion in market cap since its May 14 all-time high, Nvidia is now trading at its cheapest valuation since before the AI boom. Let that sink in. The stock that led the entire AI trade is now cheaper on a forward earnings basis than Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. One analyst specifically called it \"compelling value\" — and the math backs that up when you look at the 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates.</p>\n<p>So what's causing the disconnect? The business is genuinely accelerating. Q1 FY27 revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year. Q2 guidance is $91 billion. Management just approved an $80 billion share buyback. And SemiAnalysis — a semiconductor research firm I follow closely — wrote this week that Nvidia could actually beat Wall Street's H2 estimates by another 20%. Goldman Sachs estimates that NVDA and Micron together are going to drive 40% of the entire S&amp;P 500's Q2 earnings growth. That's not a company in trouble.</p>\n<p>The selling is coming from rotation and sentiment, not fundamentals. Hedge funds have been offloading tech at record pace — the Goldman note this week confirmed that. Michael Burry disclosed a short position against NVDA too, which always creates headlines even if his track record on tech shorts is mixed at best. And the broader semi sector is going through a reality check after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ran 74% in 2026 — NVDA just happened to be the one that everyone piled into, so it's the one getting sold hardest.</p>\n<p>Technically, the stock needs to clear $200.23 for any short-term recovery to be confirmed. The $192–$193 zone is critical support, where the 200-day moving average sits. If that holds, the bounce setup is real. If it breaks, you wait for $189.85 before looking at entries again.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"Let's be real — watching NVDA go from $236 to under $200 in under two months hurts. I've been holding calls through this and it's been a rough few weeks. But here's what I keep coming back to when I look at the actual numbers. Bloomberg ran an analysis this week pointing out that after shedding roughly $1 trillion in market cap since its May 14 all-time high, Nvidia is now trading at its cheapest valuation since before the AI boom. Let that sink in. The stock that led the entire AI trade is now cheaper on a forward earnings basis than Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. One analyst specifically called it \"compelling value\" — and the math backs that up when you look at the 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates. So what's causing the disconnect? The business is genuinely accelerating. Q1 FY27 revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year. Q2 guidance is $91 billion. Management just approved an $80 billion share buyback. And SemiAnalysis — a semiconductor research firm I follow closely — wrote this week that Nvidia could actually beat Wall Street's H2 estimates by another 20%. Goldman Sachs estimates that NVDA and Micron together are going to drive 40% of the entire S&P 500's Q2 earnings growth. That's not a company in trouble. The selling is coming from rotation and sentiment, not fundamentals. Hedge funds have been offloading tech at record pace — the Goldman note this week confirmed that. Michael Burry disclosed a short position against NVDA too, which always creates headlines even if his track record on tech shorts is mixed at best. And the broader semi sector is going through a reality check after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ran 74% in 2026 — NVDA just happened to be the one that everyone piled into, so it's the one getting sold hardest. Technically, the stock needs to clear $200.23 for any short-term recovery to be confirmed. The $192–$193 zone is critical support, where the 200-day moving average sits. If that holds, the bounce setup is real. 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