Weekly: SPX Slips, Fed's Decisions, US Q2 GDP, Mega-Cap Tech Earnings & AI Spending in Focus

Last Week's Recap

1.Market Digest: Stocks Slip, Oil Spikes, Yields Surge, Earnings Upgraded

• Modestly negative — $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ finished fractionally lower; $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ dropped more than 2%. Stocks alternated gains and losses throughout the week, extending the pattern since early June.

• Energy shocks — Middle East escalation and shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea lifted oil. U.S. crude $WTI Crude Oil - main 2609(CLmain)$ traded around $90 on Friday, up from ~$82 the prior week and $69 in early July.

• Yields spike — 10-year Treasury peaked at ~4.70% Thursday (highest in 18+ months) before closing at 4.68%. The 2-year hit 4.33% and 30-year reached 5.17% on Friday ahead of the Fed meeting.

• Earnings upgrade — S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth forecast jumped to 37.9% (from 24.8% the prior week), per FactSet, after a mega-cap tech company beat expectations.

• Elevated global yields — UK 10-year yields rose above 5.00%; German yields hit highest since 2011; Japanese yields approached 1990s levels.

• Mortgage rates rise — Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.58%, highest in nearly a year, after briefly dipping below 6.00% in February.

• New tariffs — Trump administration imposed 10.0%-12.5% tariffs on major trading partners including the EU, following expiration of a prior 10.0% global tariff struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026.

• Busy week ahead — Fed policy meeting concludes Wednesday; Q2 GDP and June PCE inflation data due Thursday.

2.US Market – SPX dips 0.61% as big-tech selloff and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ collapse offset chip and energy rebound

The S&P 500 Index declined 0.61% and closed at 7,411.98, as a brutal rout in mega-cap tech and Tesla overwhelmed strength in memory chips, banks, and energy.

Industry leaders: Data Center REITs (+9.56%), Industrial Conglomerates (+7.61%), Drug Retail (+7.24%), Paper Packaging (+6.74%), and Copper (+6.59%).

10 Popular Stocks:

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ -17.81% — Collapsed on delivery-margin concerns, robotaxi timeline skepticism, and broader EV sector rotation.

• $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ -7.79% — Tumbled on AI search monetization fears and ad-spending slowdown concerns.

• $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ -6.12% — Slid on AWS growth deceleration worries and e-commerce margin pressure.

• $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ -4.18% — Extended its post-earnings decline on consumer-spending caution.

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ -3.08% — Pulled back on Azure growth normalization and profit-taking after recent strength.

• $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ +6.5% — Surged alongside firm Brent crude and OPEC+ supply discipline.

• $Micron Technology(MU)$ +8.48% — Bounced back on HBM supply-demand tightness and AI server memory pricing resilience.

• $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ +5.28% — Advanced on AI accelerator market-share optimism and data-center momentum.

• $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ +3.55% — Gained on rising rate expectations and resilient investment-banking fee income.

• $Broadcom(AVGO)$ +2.99% — Edged up on custom-AI-chip demand and VMware integration progress.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

3.Singapore Market – STI gains 1.43% as gold, shipbuilding, and energy SDRs lift the index

The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ gained 1.43% and closed at 5,588.34, as strength in gold proxies, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, and Thai/Chinese energy SDRs offset weakness in Tencent and Indonesian financials.

Sectors: Gold (+16.02%) led on safe-haven demand and precious-metals momentum. Health Care Equipment (+14.39%) surged on med-tech innovation. Broadline Retail (+12.91%) advanced on consumer reopening, while Food Distributors (+11.41%) tracked resilient grocery demand.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ +10.19% — The Chinese shipbuilder extended its rally on strong order-book momentum and Southeast Asia defense-spending tailwinds.

• $SMIC HK SDR 5to1(HSMD.SI)$ +6.31% — The Chinese foundry's SDR advanced on domestic AI chip demand and tech-decoupling proxy positioning.

• $PetroCN HK SDR 1to2(HPCD.SI)$ +6.39% — The oil major's SDR gained on firm Brent crude and OPEC+ supply discipline.

• $Bank of CN HK SDR 1to1(HBND.SI)$ +4.79% — The Chinese state-owned bank's SDR rose on defensive positioning and attractive dividend yield.

• $Ping An Ins HK SDR2to1(HPAD.SI)$ +4.02% — The insurer's 2-to-1 SDR advanced on high-dividend-yield attraction; the stock pays a TTM dividend yield of 2.95%.

• $PTTEP TH SDR 1to1(TPED.SI)$ +3.59% — The Thai oil & gas producer's SDR climbed on resilient petroleum output and a 6.54% TTM dividend yield.

• $DBS(D05.SI)$ +2.75% — Singapore's largest bank continued its post-earnings ascent on record Q1 profit and 17.0% ROE.

• $UOB(U11.SI)$ +2% — The third-largest local bank edged up on ASEAN commercial banking momentum.

• $BBCA ID SDR 1to2(IBKD.SI)$ -4.26% — The Indonesian private bank's SDR pulled back on thin-liquidity volatility and regional financial-sector rotation.

• $Tencent HK SDR 10to1(HTCD.SI)$ -5.39% — The internet giant's SDR slumped on gaming and fintech valuation compression, tracking Hong Kong weakness.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

4.Australian Market – XJO mixed as South32 surge offsets CSL and Wesfarmers weakness

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ traded mixed over the week, as a sharp rally in South32 and energy names offset declines in healthcare, retail, and the exchange operator.

Industry leaders: Electronic Components (+29.59%), Communications Equipment (+9.03%), Coal & Consumable Fuels (+8.30%), Soft Drinks (+6.67%), and Leisure Facilities (+6.46%).

10 Popular Stocks:

• $SOUTH32 LTD(S32.AU)$ +15.13% — The diversified miner surged on manganese and aluminum price strength, with Australian and African operations benefiting from supply-constraint narratives.

• $WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD(WDS.AU)$ +6.27% — Advanced on firm Brent crude and LNG spot pricing resilience.

• $SANTOS LIMITED(STO.AU)$ +3.78% — Gained on production momentum and PNG project progress.

• $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ +2.28% — Rose modestly on copper and iron ore price stabilization.

• $PLS Group Ltd(PLS.AU)$ -4.39% — Tracked the lithium complex lower on oversupply concerns.

• $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ -4.11% — Pulled back on consumer staples rotation and margin pressure.

• $BRAMBLES LTD(BXB.AU)$ 3.76% — Declined on freight demand and pallet-pool utilization concerns.

• $WESFARMERS LTD(WES.AU)$ -5.98% — Slumped on profit-taking after recent strength, with Bunnings and Kmart facing margin scrutiny.

• $ASX LTD(ASX.AU)$ -5.51% — The exchange operator fell on trading-volume concerns and regulatory overhang.

• $CSL LIMITED(CSL.AU)$ -7.38% — The biotech heavyweight was the week's worst large-cap performer, tumbling on profit-taking and plasma-collection margin concerns.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

5.Hong Kong Market – HSI gains 1.63% as banks and miners lift the index; tech lags

$HSI(HSI)$ : The Hang Seng Index gained 1.63% and closed at 24,963.23, as strength in Chinese banks, energy majors, and mining giants offset weakness in tech and consumer discretionary names.

The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ eked out a 0.14% gain and closed at 4,609.7, with the narrow advance masking significant divergence beneath the surface.

Industry leaders: Reinsurance (+18.10%), Silver (+18.03%), Agricultural & Farm Machinery (+18.00%), Paper Packaging (+17.18%), and IT Consulting & Other Services (+17.09%).

9 Popular Stocks:

• $ZIJIN MINING(02899)$ +11.84% — The gold and copper mining giant surged as gold prices stabilized and silver rallied, with the company's diversified metal exposure attracting safe-haven and industrial demand flows.

• $PETROCHINA(00857)$ +6.47% — The upstream energy major advanced on firm Brent crude and OPEC+ supply discipline, with resilient China refinery runs underpinning near-term cash generation.

• $CCB(00939)$ +5.91% — The state-owned lender led the banking sector higher on defensive dividend-yield positioning and improving net interest margin expectations.

• $BANK OF CHINA(03988)$ +4.92% — The banking giant tracked CCB higher, benefiting from rotation into high-dividend-yield financials as a shelter from tech volatility.

• $PING AN(02318)$ +4.21% — The mainland insurer advanced on investment-yield stabilization and its attractive dividend policy relative to global peers.

• $ICBC(01398)$ +4.05% — The state-owned lender rose on income-investor demand and its deeply discounted valuation.

• $CNOOC(00883)$ +3.7% — The offshore oil specialist tracked PetroChina higher on crude price resilience and production growth momentum.

• $FAST RETAIL-DRS(06288)$ -7.87% — The UNIQLO operator's depositary receipt slumped on profit-taking after recent strength and concerns over China consumer-spending momentum.

• $TENCENT(00700)$ -5.85% — The internet giant was the week's worst large-cap performer, tumbling on gaming and fintech valuation compression as investors rotated out of platform-economy names.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

The Week Ahead: July 27- 31

Macro Factors

🔑 3 Macro Themes to Watch

A. FOMC: Hold, But Hawkish Rhetoric Rising

• Base case: Hold at 3.50%–3.75% (5th consecutive pause).

• Market shift: Probability of a July hike jumped from 12% → 38% (CME FedWatch) as oil surged past $100.

• Key nuance: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is deliberately minimizing forward guidance — don't expect clear hints.

• Dot plot split (June): 9 of 18 FOMC members expected at least one hike before year-end; only 1 expected a cut.

B. PCE Inflation: The Fed's Report Card (July 30)

• Why it matters: PCE is the Fed's official inflation target (2%). It runs slightly cooler than CPI and captures consumer substitution behavior.

• Latest readings (May 2026):

  • Headline PCE: 4.1% YoY (highest since Apr 2023)

  • Core PCE: 3.4% YoY (well above 2% target)

• What to watch:

  • Core PCE MoM ≥ +0.3% → Inflation accelerating → Bad for equities, yields rise, dollar strengthens.

  • Core PCE MoM ≤ +0.15% → Downside surprise → Reignites rate-cut hopes, supports risk assets.

• Timing twist: PCE releases the day after the FOMC decision, so it shapes September expectations, not July's outcome.

C. Geopolitics: Oil as the Wild Card

• The U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz tensions have driven oil above $100/barrel.

• This directly feeds into headline inflation and complicates the Fed's 2% target.

• Energy earnings Friday ($XOM, $CVX ) will reflect this — but the macro risk is whether oil stays elevated into Q3.

Earnings Focus：MSFT META QCOM APPL AMZN

A. Mega-Cap Tech and AI Spending

• The Big Four: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ report on Wednesday, July 29, followed by $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ on Thursday, July 30.

• AI Return on Investment: Investors are closely tracking whether massive capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure are translating to justified revenue growth, especially after $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ 's recent large spending disclosures unnerved markets.

B. Key Non-Tech Reports

• Tuesday, July 28: $Visa(V)$ $Coca-Cola(KO)$ $Boeing(BA)$ kick off industrial and consumer bellwether results.

• Friday, July 31: Energy giants $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ and $Chevron(CVX)$ report amid surging oil prices topping $100 a barrel.