5 Things I Expect to Rise in July CPI

Michael Esther
08-10

Five areas could come in hotter when July CPI is released Wednesday:

  • Oil: Crude $WTI Crude Oil - main 2609(CLmain)$ jumped 22% in July as fresh Middle East fighting pushed energy prices higher.

  • Shelter: Rent and owners’ equivalent rent continue to rise month after month.

  • Electricity: Summer cooling demand and growing data-center power consumption are putting upward pressure on utility bills.

  • Auto Insurance: Premiums are still being repriced as repair and replacement costs remain elevated.

  • Food Away From Home: Higher restaurant labor costs continue to push menu prices higher.

The Street expects 0.1% headline CPI, 0.3% core CPI, and 3.2% year-over-year inflation.

The biggest wildcard remains shelter. If it comes in hotter than expected, the inflation picture could change quickly.

For $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , I'm watching $780 first, followed by $782+ this week.

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