苏36
08-14 13:38
A. SNDK — The story is bigger than NAND.

I’d still pick SNDK. What caught my attention isn’t just the 13.7% rally, but the potential change in its business model. Long-term agreements could make earnings and cash flow much more predictable, while HBF gives SNDK another angle on the growing AI inference market.

MU has broader exposure across HBM, DRAM and NAND, and WDC offers an interesting data-center HDD story. But SNDK currently has the most interesting combination of AI storage demand, long-term contracts, high-margin targets and shareholder returns.

The only thing I wouldn’t do is chase the stock after a huge one-day move. At this valuation, expectations are already high. For me, the real test is whether SNDK can hold the gains and prove that those ambitious 2030 targets are actually achievable.

If it can, this may be more than just another NAND cycle. It could be a genuine storage re-rating story.

@Tiger_comments [邪恶]

Micron Reclaims $1 Trillion Market Cap — Memory Rebound or Reversal?
Memory ran hard. $MU +4.92%, SK Hynix +9.01%, $SNDK +5.76%, $SOXL +6.89%. The bull case has three legs: risk appetite after CPI, Micron management saying AI memory tightness can run past 2027 — which had UBS calling a structural reset in through-cycle profitability — and the sell side following it up. The bear case is supply and guidance: CXMT is adding capacity, and SanDisk and Western Digital both fell two sessions after beating, on outlook. Same chips, opposite conclusions — the argument isn't demand any more, it's who gets to set the price.
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