koolgal
08-20 07:55
🌟🌟🌟I vote $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ will close Flat in the -5% to 5% zone.  Alibaba has missed Wall Street's Consensus EPS expectations for 4 consecutive previous quarters.  Today's numbers confirm that heavy capital expenditure into AI cloud infrastructure continues to compress immediate profit margins, giving bears plenty of ammunition to cap any explosive surges.

A "Very Red" crash is almost entirely off the table because the underlying top line volumes are exceptionally health.  Driven by an uncharacteristically strong double digit revenue expansion and massive domestic excitement surrounding its operating system integrations with $Apple(AAPL)$ , the long term turnaround is undeniably visible.

Alibaba's active buy back program stands at a huge USD 65 billion.  This acts as its defence shield.  If earnings wobble, management can buy back to support the stock.

Compared to its US peers, Alibaba is undervalued & a great Buy.

@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG

Alibaba Cloud External Revenue Hits 22-Quarter High, But GAAP Profit Drops ~75%?
Alibaba's FY27 Q1: revenue of 268.95bn yuan, +9% and a hair above the 268.52bn consensus. Profit needs two lenses — adjusted net profit −38% to 20.72bn, GAAP net profit −75%; quoting only the adjusted figure understates the erosion. Capex +75% to 67.68bn, nearly all AI infrastructure, and the return is visible: cloud external revenue +45%, a 22-quarter high, AI product revenue in triple digits for 12 straight quarters, AI cloud annualizing near 49.5bn. The U.S. listing rose 1.26% on the print. Re-rate on cloud, wait for capex to peak, or watch margins next quarter?
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Comments

  • AndrewWalker
    08-20 18:13
    AndrewWalker
    The Apple integration angle matters more than people think. From a longer view, that is ecosystem stickiness getting rebuilt while the market keeps staring at margin compression lol
  • fuzzyx
    08-20 18:13
    fuzzyx
    That buyback shield sounds weaker than bulls think. Four straight EPS misses plus softer free cash flow makes flat feel generous here
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