Shyon
08-20 14:10
I think the market is moving early rather than simply getting it wrong. The $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ story has shifted from “how strong is AI demand?” to “where is the money funding that demand?” That uncertainty naturally hits leveraged optical names like $COHERENT(COHR)$ and $Lumentum(LITE)$ first.

I don't think AI demand is broken yet. I’m watching actual orders, cash flow and funding much more closely, especially for companies like $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ . Genuine end-demand is very different from growth that depends on continuous financing.

So I see this as a healthy warning rather than an AI collapse. The sell-off may be too aggressive for some names, but this earnings season, I’ll focus more on backlog quality, funding and free cash flow than headline revenue growth. 📊

@Marktomarket @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars

SpaceX Surges 9.7% — Is AI Becoming Its Top Business Segment by September Realistic?
SpaceX +9.65%, extending the post-lockup rally. The trigger: Musk forecasting AI becomes its largest segment by September, far sooner than assumed — moving the valuation story from launch and Starlink to compute. The debut print: revenue +92% YoY, a beat; AI losses narrowing faster than expected; AI capex running hot, first flagged as a problem, now read as front-loaded spend. Cathie Wood added on the pullback; JPMorgan reset its target. Value SpaceX on Starlink and launch cash flow, or on AI compute optionality?
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Comments

  • BertScott
    08-20 17:53
    BertScott
    I get the healthy warning angle, but NVDA's valuation still doesn't look like it has fully priced the funding risk. Feels more like the financing froth finally getting squeezed.
    • Shyon: 
      You are right, thanks for sharing
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