BABA: AI Line Begin to Fly

MY $Alibaba(BABA)$ VALUATION MODEL

PRICE TARGET: $192 --> $203

POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +61% ✅

"The stock remains undervalued modeling $100B cloud revenue in 5 years and a decent operating leverage"

ASSUMPTIONS:

LTM Revenue: $149.282B

(𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚𝘋/𝘊𝘕𝘠 = 𝟩.00)

5Y Revenue CAGR: 10%

2031 Profit Margin: 17%

2031 PE Ratio: 18

Shares outstanding: 2.416B

Shares reduction: 1%/year

VALUATION:

Q2 2031

$Alibaba(BABA)$ SHARE PRICE =149.282 * (1.10)^5 * 0.17 * 18 /[2.416 * (0.99)^5] = $320

You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Alibaba I want to use 12%

ACTUAL PRICE: $128

FAIR VALUE: $182

PRICE TARGET (1Y): $203

POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 61%

EXPECTED RETURNS: 20.1%/year

DIVIDEND YIELD: 0.8%

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

𝘐'𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 and all the 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Do you own $Alibaba(BABA)$ shares?

$Alibaba(BABA)$ EARNINGS ARE OUT!

Revenue grew 9% y/y

Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 45% y/y, 12 consecutive quarters of triple digit growth for AI revenue 🤯

At the same time, China commerce and the other business lines continue to fail to impress

HKEX Stocks Opportunities

Any thoughts and experiences on investing in the HK stock market? Share them with all Tigers here!

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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$203</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +61% ✅</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"The stock remains undervalued modeling $100B cloud revenue in 5 years and a decent operating leverage\"</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">ASSUMPTIONS:</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">LTM Revenue: $149.282B</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">(𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚𝘋/𝘊𝘕𝘠 = 𝟩.00)</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">5Y Revenue CAGR: 10%</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">2031 Profit Margin: 17%</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">2031 PE Ratio: 18</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Shares outstanding: 2.416B</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Shares reduction: 1%/year</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">VALUATION:</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Q2 2031</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Alibaba\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> SHARE PRICE =149.282 * (1.10)^5 * 0.17 * 18 /[2.416 * (0.99)^5] = $320</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Alibaba I want to use 12%</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">ACTUAL PRICE: $128</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">FAIR VALUE: $182</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">PRICE TARGET (1Y): $203</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 61%</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">EXPECTED RETURNS: 20.1%/year</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">DIVIDEND YIELD: 0.8%</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">𝘐'𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 and all the 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Do you own <a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Alibaba\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> shares?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/52133cb7904cdfc925968fe284798d30\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"><span></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Alibaba\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> EARNINGS ARE OUT!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Revenue grew 9% y/y</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 45% y/y, 12 consecutive quarters of triple digit growth for AI revenue 🤯</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">At the same time, China commerce and the other business lines continue to fail to impress</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img data-align=\"center\" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c027a55679834384a99a20441be8120\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1723\"><span></span></p></body></html>","text":"MY $Alibaba(BABA)$ VALUATION MODEL PRICE TARGET: $192 --> $203 POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +61% ✅ \"The stock remains undervalued modeling $100B cloud revenue in 5 years and a decent operating leverage\" ASSUMPTIONS: LTM Revenue: $149.282B (𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚𝘋/𝘊𝘕𝘠 = 𝟩.00) 5Y Revenue CAGR: 10% 2031 Profit Margin: 17% 2031 PE Ratio: 18 Shares outstanding: 2.416B Shares reduction: 1%/year VALUATION: Q2 2031 $Alibaba(BABA)$ SHARE PRICE =149.282 * (1.10)^5 * 0.17 * 18 /[2.416 * (0.99)^5] = $320 You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Alibaba I want to use 12% ACTUAL PRICE: $128 FAIR VALUE: $182 PRICE TARGET (1Y): $203 POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 61% EXPECTED RETURNS: 20.1%/year DIVIDEND YIELD: 0.8% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐'𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘰𝘳 and all the 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Do you own $Alibaba(BABA)$ shares? $Alibaba(BABA)$ EARNINGS ARE OUT! 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