The market did not take long to choose a short- to medium-term direction. Last week, gold and crypto assets both surged, making it clear that the market had entered a new phase of rebound. The previous trading logic can therefore be carried forward naturally, and risk assets are expected to remain resilient through the period before the fourth quarter. The only factor requiring particular caution is the speed of the advance.
The logic chain of crypto assets—gold—risk assets changed slightly during last week’s trading. Following the news that the U.S. Treasury would purchase bonds, gold reacted most quickly. However, in terms of both absolute gains and the pace of appreciation, Bitcoin and Ethereum—whose volatility is inherently higher—soon staged a catch-up move and outperformed the earlier leader. Major global equity indices, including U.S. stocks, remained relatively calm. Unless new major developments emerge, most risk assets appear to have theoretical potential for catch-up gains going forward.
$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金2612(MGC2612)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $1盎司黄金2612(1OZ2612)$ $CME比特币主连 2608(BTCmain)$ $比特币概念(BK4595)$
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had already registered new highs, so recent attention will continue to focus primarily on the Nasdaq. The bearish engulfing candle on last week’s weekly chart was not encouraging. Most of the decline occurred in the first half of the week, while the market failed to rebound significantly in the second half despite favorable developments. Short-term pressure therefore remains. Similar patterns have also appeared several times since May, with similarly negative implications. For the Nasdaq, a move back above 30,343 would be needed to signal the return of the bulls. Earnings reports from key companies this week could provide important guidance. Unless the index breaks below 27,000, the worst-case scenario for the market would still be range-bound trading at elevated levels.
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From a trading perspective, after the previous attempt to establish long positions at lower levels failed to execute, another option is now available—but it requires certain preconditions. We would like to see a potentially bullish reversal pattern emerge at least on the daily chart, and preferably on the weekly chart. This could be either an outside bullish engulfing candle or an upside breakout following a series of inside-bar patterns—for example, a breakout above the daily high of 29,689. It should be noted that attempting to chase an upside move will inevitably increase transaction costs, but the advantage is that it allows traders to follow the prevailing trend. Given the need for flexibility and the variables that may arise during the week, it is not possible to provide specific trade instructions at the weekly-report level; however, this framework may serve as a reference.
Among the instruments we hold or are preparing to trade, U.S. crude oil is the one to watch for a potential breakout this week. On the daily chart, the latest trend-line resistance has already entered the range targeted by the bulls. If prices can remain firmly above 85 and break through resistance, they should at least have an opportunity to retest the highs near 93.5, with the possibility of a larger advance. However, given the time horizon, a rally with the same magnitude as the one seen in the first quarter is not expected at this stage. Existing positions therefore require additional patience and waiting. This week, we will raise the stop-loss level for the crude-oil trade to ensure that the position is placed in a risk-free state. The stop-loss for the euro trade will also be raised; please refer to the detailed strategy for the specific level.$WTI原油主连 2610(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2610(QMmain)$ $欧元主连 2609(EURmain)$
Finally, this week provides an opportunity to briefly review the trading results since the strategy recommendations were introduced in the column in February. With the euro and crude-oil positions still showing unrealized profits, the overall gain has been approximately 20%. The overall win rate is around 65%, with a relatively low trading frequency of about three trades per month. The maximum number of consecutive stop-outs was two, and the maximum drawdown was approximately 8%. The number of long and short trades was broadly balanced. I also hope that, going forward, we can continue working together through this format to pursue steady profits while holding positions for swing trades.
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This Week’s Strategy
Euro futures: The previously established long position was filled at 1.1420. As the recent move has begun, the stop-loss is now being raised further to 1.1570. The targets remain unchanged at 1.1770 and 1.2420, with half the position allocated to each target.$欧元主连 2609(EURmain)$ $欧元2609(EUR2609)$
Crude oil: Continue holding the long position, with an average entry price of 75. As the market has become more stable, the stop-loss will be raised to the entry level. In practice, a level below 74 may be more consistent with the trade logic. The targets remain unchanged at 95 and 115, with half the position allocated to each target. $WTI原油主连 2610(CLmain)$ $小原油2609(QM2609)$
Gold: After last week’s sharp advance, there is clearly no longer a need to attempt to establish long positions at lower levels. However, sell orders at higher levels will remain in place. Priority should be given to short opportunities: place limit sell orders at 4,830 and 5,170, with half the position at each level. The stop-loss is 5,275, and the target is 4,000. $黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$
P.S. If the trade reaches the first target, the stop-loss will automatically be adjusted to the entry level. Any subsequent adjustments after execution will be provided in future articles.
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