I would split the move roughly like this:
Oil/geopolitical tension: 60%
Brent oil moved close to US$108.
Higher oil prices can push inflation higher.
That makes investors expect higher interest rates for longer, which pushes Treasury yields up.
Fed/rate expectations: 40%
Stronger inflation data increased expectations of a rate hike.
Markets were pricing around 89–92% probability of a hike this week.
This directly supports higher Treasury yields.
My view
The oil shock was the main trigger, while Fed expectations amplified it.
The important point is that a 5% 10-year Treasury yield is a big deal for expensive growth stocks. Higher yields make future profits worth less today, so high-valuation technology and AI stocks can face pressure.
For investors:
Short term → I would be cautious about chasing expensive AI/software stocks.
Long term → I would watch for good companies to fall because of higher rates, rather than panic-selling.
Bottom line: Oil 60% + Fed 40%.
Nvidia Lifts Buyback Authorization to $235B — Who's Buying the New High?
Nvidia closed +1.34% at $233.95 Friday after an intraday record $237.88, market cap near $6T. No fresh news: the board added $150B to the buyback, authorization now $235B through Jan 2028. Chips rose: AMD +2.95% to $633.91, past $1T for the first time, +196% YTD; Broadcom +3.35% to $355.14. Intel alone fell -0.56% to $119.33. Bulls say $235B of buying cushions the price; bears say buybacks lift EPS, not next year's data-center orders — which $6T already assumes. When does a buyback stop being support?
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