Will September’s FOMC set the market’s direction——How to trade gold and Bitcoin trends?💰💰

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only.

Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in.

The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>

9月嘅FOMC为未来市场一锤定音？点样把握黄金同比特币嘅趋势机会？

I will now categorize and summarize the key information and trading-related insights from the course, so that those who did not have time to attend can quickly understand my current market view. I will begin with a brief personal introduction.

Since entering the financial markets in 2007, I have accumulated more than 15 years of experience in live margin trading, with a particular focus on foreign exchange, gold, and futures. I previously served as General Manager and Content Director of Wallstreetcn’s Gold Headlines. I am currently a special lecturer for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and a member of the expert network of Gerson Lehrman Group.

The core views presented in this course are as follows:

• Although this 25 bp hike came roughly one quarter earlier than the market’s previous consensus expectation, it had already been largely priced in. A positive weekly close would suggest that the negative catalyst has been absorbed and that markets remain relatively firm; a weak weekly close after an intraday rally would indicate that further consolidation is still needed.

• Long-end Treasury yields remain the key market variable: declining yields would help stabilize markets, while a sustained move in the 10-year yield above 5% could transmit bond-market stress across broader asset classes. The base case for the next one to two months is range-bound recovery and trading-driven mean reversion, with greater caution warranted after November.

• U.S. equities may offer buy-on-dip opportunities; gold is tactically bearish at elevated levels, with its larger correction not yet complete; crypto is better watched than traded aggressively; crude oil remains constructively biased over the medium term; and long EUR exposure may be worth monitoring.

1. Fed Rate Hike: A Strong Weekly Close Would Signal Resilience

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp, roughly one quarter earlier than the market’s prior consensus expectation of a December hike. This broadly aligned with the earlier assessment.

However, the market had already priced in the decision to a considerable extent during the one to two weeks preceding the meeting, particularly through options activity. Most risk assets had also come under pressure in advance. As a result, the impact of this hike is likely to be concentrated in the short to medium term rather than necessarily marking a broader trend reversal.

The key now is the weekly close:

• A positive weekly close would suggest that the negative catalyst has been largely absorbed, leaving the market relatively constructive.

• A rally that fades into a weak weekly close would indicate that the market still needs further repair and consolidation.

2. Long-End Treasury Yields: Falling Yields Stabilize Markets; Renewed Strength Revives Rate and Valuation Pressure

The earlier-than-expected hike was driven less by inflation or labor-market data than by persistent upward pressure in long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, which effectively forced the Fed to adjust policy sooner.

On the day of the decision, both 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields declined, indicating that the policy move had at least temporarily helped ease pressure at the long end of the curve.

The path of long-end yields remains critical:

• Continued declines in 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields would support market stabilization.

• A renewed rise in long-end yields would revive concerns over further tightening and place valuation pressure back on risk assets.

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3. Policy Outlook: December Hike Risk Remains

The market is still assigning roughly an 88% probability to another rate hike in December:

• The probability of a 25 bp increase is around 50%.

• The probability of a 50 bp increase is around 38.6%.

Therefore, while the current hike has been delivered, the risk of further monetary tightening has not been fully priced out.

In addition, under Warsh’s leadership, the Fed has not provided a clear dot-plot-style forward guidance framework. The press conference lasted only 30 minutes, unusually brief by recent standards, and policy communication has become less predictable than during the Powell era. This raises the difficulty of forecasting the policy path and warrants caution over the risk of a larger-than-expected hike.

4. Core Market Indicator: Whether the 10-Year Treasury Yield Holds Above 5%

The most important market indicators remain the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, with the 5% level on the 10-year yield especially important.

The 5% area corresponds both to highs seen around the 2007–2008 global financial crisis and to the high zone reached during the previous tightening cycle. If the 10-year Treasury yield breaks above and holds above 5%, stress in the bond market could spread to equities, gold, crypto assets, and other risk assets.

Absent the following signals, the market is likely to remain range-bound:

• U.S. Treasury yields holding above 5%.

• A material escalation in the Middle East.

• Broad technical breakdowns across risk assets.

If these risk signals emerge, the appropriate response would be to adopt a more defensive stance and reduce exposure to risk assets.

5. Broad Market View: Near-Term Range-Bound Recovery, but Significant Fourth-Quarter Reversal Risk

Over the next one to two months, the market is expected to remain in a range-bound recovery phase. This rate hike alone is unlikely to alter the broader market trend, but risk assets also lack the conditions needed for a one-way bull market.

The current range-trading framework can remain in place through October. November may become an important inflection window. Key fourth-quarter variables include the midterm elections, developments in the Middle East, long-end Treasury yields, and the Fed’s subsequent policy decisions.

After November, it would be prudent to reduce exposure to larger directional positions and assess how these political and economic variables develop before determining the next trading direction.

6. Crypto Assets: Range Trading, With Focus on Key Levels

Crypto assets have already priced in a substantial amount of prior upside, and the era of the “three engines” is over. Their speculative characteristics now outweigh their investment value, while the long-term narrative has weakened. A return to a full-fledged bull market is therefore unlikely in the near term.

That said, crypto assets have led broader risk-asset moves by roughly one to three months this year. They often reflect shifts in market risk appetite before other asset classes and therefore remain an important leading indicator.

Bitcoin is unlikely to break decisively below 58,000 in the short term. The 100,000 level has shifted from support to resistance, and Bitcoin is expected to trade primarily in a 60,000–80,000 range. Ethereum is showing more pronounced signs of limited upside momentum.

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Key levels and scenarios to monitor:

• If crypto assets collectively make new September highs, avoid chasing the move; gold and U.S. equities may offer alternative opportunities in the same broader directional environment.

• If Ethereum breaks below 2,200 and Bitcoin falls below 68,000, risk assets should be avoided across the board.

• Trading directly within the current range offers limited risk-reward. It is preferable to remain patient and wait for a clear breakout before participating.

7. Gold: Tactical Bearish Bias at High Levels; the Larger Correction Is Not Over

Gold’s long-term bullish case remains intact, supported by the gradual erosion of U.S. dollar hegemony and the continued accumulation of gold by global central banks.$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $白银主连 2612(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2612(SILmain)$ $100盎司白银主连 2612(SICmain)$

However, gold’s current valuation is not especially compelling. It has also remained highly correlated with risk assets this year and has not established an independent safe-haven trend. Therefore, conditions are not yet in place for a long-term strategic allocation.

Two confirmation signals are needed before considering a longer-term allocation:

• Gold attracts clear capital inflows and trades independently when risk assets experience a significant sell-off.

• The gold-to-silver ratio rises back above 80.

Neither signal has emerged so far.

From a tactical perspective, the preferred approach is to maintain a bearish bias at elevated levels. Short-term long trades within the range may also be considered, but only as short-horizon trades. The larger-scale correction in gold is not yet complete.

8. U.S. Equities: Still Relatively Strong, With Buy-on-Dip Opportunities

U.S. equities remain relatively strong. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are consolidating near elevated levels and have not yet shown meaningful technical breakdowns. The broader structure remains one of range-bound upside.

There may still be opportunities for periodic upside extensions, but conditions do not support a one-way acceleration or a sustained, broad-based bull market. Higher rates, policy uncertainty, and fourth-quarter risks are likely to constrain the upside.

The preferred approach is to look for long opportunities after pullbacks rather than chase strength or hold large directional positions. If Treasury yields continue to rise, crypto assets sell off sharply, or the weekly close turns meaningfully weak, the strategy should shift toward selling risk assets into rallies.$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2609(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2609(MYMmain)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2609(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2609(MESmain)$ $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ $波动率短期期货指数ETF(VIXY)$ $1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares(UVXY)$

9. Crude Oil and FX: Constructive Oil Bias; Watch the Euro

The broader view on crude oil remains bullish. Although a near-term correction remains possible, the situation in the Middle East has not been fundamentally resolved, leaving room for further upside in oil prices.

In foreign exchange, the current view is bearish on both the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, while long EUR positions may be considered. FX is relatively less correlated with broader risk assets and can therefore be monitored as a more independent trading theme.$WTI原油主连 2611(CLmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2610(MCLmain)$ $小原油主连 2610(QMmain)$ $欧元主连 2612(EURmain)$ $英镑主连 2612(GBPmain)$ $加元主连 2612(CADmain)$ $日元主连 2612(JPYmain)$

10. Trading Framework for the Next One to Two Months

The overall approach is to focus on mean reversion and range trading rather than large, one-way directional positions:

• Favor buying U.S. equities on pullbacks.

• Use range-trading strategies in gold, with a tactical bearish bias at elevated levels.

• Remain patient in crypto until a clearer directional break emerges.

• Maintain a medium-term constructive view on crude oil while accounting for near-term consolidation risk.

• Monitor potential long EUR opportunities.

If Treasury yields continue to rise, crypto assets decline sharply, the weekly close weakens, geopolitical tensions escalate, or risk assets broadly break down, shift decisively to a defensive posture and reduce or avoid risk-asset exposure.