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Intel's most important recent news centres on its foundry comeback: the 18A node has officially entered mass production with reported ~80% yield, and Q2 results beat expectations substantially. That combination has made it one of the strongest chip stocks this year, though the rally has also pushed valuation to demanding levels.

Key information

1. 18A node reaches mass production (2026-09-22) At the 2026 Intel Technology Innovation and Ecosystem Conference in Suzhou, Intel's CMO Annie Shea Weckesser said Intel 18A has entered mass production, with the enhanced 18A-P in risk trial production and 14A progressing well; risk production of internal products is planned for H2 2027

Tonghuashun

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. 18A (1.8nm) competes directly with TSMC's N2 and Samsung's SF2

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2. 18A yield ~80% — a key milestone Analyst estimates (Jeff Pu, 2026-09-15) put 18A yield at about 80% for Q2 2026, up from around 20% for the server CPU project (CWF) in June — better than expected

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East Money

. This is viewed as the first quantitative proof that Intel's manufacturing competitiveness is being rebuilt, crossing the roughly 70% profitability threshold

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3. Q2 earnings beat (reported earlier, still highly relevant) Q2 revenue was $16.1B, ~$1.8B above consensus; non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 was nearly double analyst expectations. Data center & AI revenue grew 59% YoY to $6.3B, and foundry revenue reached $5.8B — CEO Lip-Bu Tan called it the strongest revenue growth quarter in over 15 years

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4. Foundry customer traction Reported engagements include Microsoft on 18A, AWS adopting Intel for AI chip manufacturing, and reports of a preliminary foundry agreement with Apple; NVIDIA, Broadcom and AMD are testing or evaluating 18A

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5. Market reaction and positioning Intel shares are up more than 230% YTD, including a 12%+ single-day gain on 2026-09-22 amid strength in the Philadelphia Semiconductor index

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Tonghuashun

. In the past 30 days analysts have raised 2026 EPS estimates 32 times, and the 2027 EPS consensus has been lifted from $1.51 to $2.04

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. Latest close: USD 123.00, down 3.45% on 2026-09-26, with after-hours at USD 122.95.

Risk notes

Valuation is stretched: at roughly USD 123, the stock trades around 80x the next-12-month EPS estimate of ~USD 1.14, falling to about 45x on 2027E EPS of USD 2.04 — the current price already embeds a successful foundry turnaround

Tonghuashun

. Any execution slip could trigger a sizeable multiple compression.

The 80% yield figure is an industry estimate , and Panther Lake compute dies are relatively small; the larger test is whether external customers commit in volume, especially on the 14A node — a commercial, not just technical, question

East Money

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Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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