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10-07

Here is my personal take on whats actually happening behind the scenes:

The Classic Elon Playbook (Maximum Leverage):

Whenever Musk publicly anchors to a sole supplier, the clock starts ticking. Confirming talks with TSMC isn't just curiosity; it’s ruthless leverage. It signals to Intel: Deliver top-tier yields and aggressive wafer pricing, or watch the volume walk.  

TSMC Is the Unavoidable Tollbooth:

Bulls are right on the money here. Whether it’s custom silicon for autonomous fleets, high-throughput satellite comms, or Terafab scale, advanced packaging (CoWoS) and sub-3nm volume still lead back to TSMC. In the AI hardware gold rush, TSMC owns the pickaxes.  

Bears Have a Point, but Sentiment Rules:

Yes, a conversation is not a signed purchase order. But in semiconductor land, perception drives multiples. Intel needed Terafab as a trophy proof-of-concept for its external foundry turnaround; TSMC just reminded everyone who still runs the table.  

The Playbook:

$TSM: The monopoly moat remains rock-solid. Momentum and structural pricing power are on its side.

$INTC: Treat with caution. Until foundry execution produces locked-in customer deposits, headline risk will keep capping rallies.


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TSMC Profits Hit Record Highs — Why Is AI Hardware Still Being Sold?
TSMC fell 1.80% and Nvidia dropped 1.84% despite TSMC beating quarterly estimates. Revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, net profit hit NT$763.1 billion, and operating margin topped guidance at 58.7%. Bulls cite strong Q4 guidance and advanced-chip demand; bears warn that higher 2026–2028 capex could strain customer funding and AI returns. Should investors follow TSMC’s capacity execution and Nvidia orders, or wait for clearer capex payoffs?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • JimmyTurner
    10-07
    JimmyTurner
    CoWoS allocation is the part people still underrate. When the same capacity is split across AI and custom silicon, TSMC keeps the pricing power and everyone else fights for slots
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