Meta’s biggest challenge isn’t growth; it’s proving AI spending won’t permanently drag on profitability.

Advertising remains its cash-generating engine, while AI-powered recommendations and targeting can improve returns. Muse offers additional upside, but downloads are only the beginning. Retention, engagement and monetization will determine whether it becomes a genuine growth driver.

The real wildcard is capital expenditure. Meta’s planned $130–145 billion in 2026 capex raises the stakes considerably.

I expect strong advertising performance, but not necessarily a strong stock reaction. Even beating revenue estimates may disappoint investors if management signals higher spending without clearer returns.

My verdict: C. The market has priced in considerable AI optimism. Until Meta proves AI can generate incremental profits, a solid quarter may simply meet expectations rather than trigger another rally.

@Tiger_Earnings [得意]