$Microsoft(MSFT)$ OCT30 545C in play.

Zone: $529.22 to $536.68

Invalidation: close under $524.43

Objectives: $551.15, then $565

The math: up 3.4% to the first objective and 6.0% to the second, against 1.6% risk on the invalidation, better than 3.5 to 1 to the second.

Picture a floor in an old house that everyone keeps jumping on and it just will not give. That is this swing setup. Microsoft dipped into the 524 to 526 dollar area three times in the last week and buyers held it each time, and it closed at 532 dollars and 95 cents near the top of its range, which in plain words means people would rather hold into the October 28 report than sell a dip that refuses to break. The levels do the talking here, with room first to the October high near 551 dollars and then toward 565 dollars if the report gives buyers a reason to pay up.

One thing worth watching: that 524 dollar floor on any dip before October 28, because the whole idea rests on it holding one more time.