ShawnLLS
10-26 21:14

$ServiceNow(NOW)$ up 14.7% in eight sessions, straight into Wednesday's print

ServiceNow closed at $158.96 on 23 Oct, up 14.7% from $138.61 two weeks ago. Q3 results are Wednesday 28 Oct after the close.

Analysts drove most of the move. Barclays raised its target to $160 from $134, Wells Fargo to $190 from $175, Piper Sandler to $175 from $140, and Bernstein to a Street-high $266 from $248. RBC set $176 and Mizuho has Outperform at $170. There was also a new NVIDIA partnership on an enterprise AI agent, and AI contract value is above $1bn. The stock is now about 3% above the MarketBeat consensus target of $153.90, and J.P. Morgan's target is $150. The business hasn't changed, and my scorecard is still 73/100.

The run-up is the risk. After Q1, the stock fell about 17% on report day despite a beat and raise, and options imply a move of about 10% this time. At $159 it trades at about 39× 2026 and 32× 2027 non-GAAP earnings.

What Wednesday has to show:

Subscription revenue of about $3.98B, up 20.6%, against the $3,975–3,980M guide.

Organic cRPO growth. Reported cRPO should be about 19.5%, but organic is closer to 17.4%, down from about 19% in Q2.

GAAP operating margin of at least 8%, against 31% non-GAAP.

Q4 cRPO guidance. J.P. Morgan says 19–20% organic would signal confidence, and 17–18% would delay the re-rating.

My sell-put gates at $158.96:

200-day SMA: pass, about 39% above.

Zone: Full Green, about 17% above a rising 50-day.

Volatility: confirm live. IV is elevated into the print, and it will fall after.

Earnings: fail. 28 Oct is confirmed.

Sizing: one contract fits. A strike near $140 needs $14,000.

The window for the 18 Dec monthly opens 3–18 Nov. Strikes of $135–140 work on today's numbers. A $140 put is 0.18 delta at 45% IV and pays 15.3% annualised, or 0.15 delta at 40% IV. If Wednesday moves the price 10%, every number moves with it, so I recompute on 3 Nov. Assigned there, my net cost would be about 32–34% below fair value.

So it's no trade until 3 Nov, and no new money before the print.

Personal framework, not investment advice.

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Comments

  • jazzyloo
    11:12
    jazzyloo
    Q1 already showed a beat and raise can still get hit 17%. Up 14.7% into print, waiting until Nov 3 still feels cleaner
  • HJWWW
    11:55
    HJWWW
    Gogogogogogogogogogogogogogo
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