SanDisk Crashes 14% — Do China's New Trade Barriers Kill the Flash Story?

SanDisk plummeted 14.25% Tuesday and extended losses another 3.23% after hours, as sector peer Western Digital faced reports of new Chinese market barriers, layered on top of SK Hynix's revenue miss — prompting traders to declare "the AI memory trade is unraveling." Options implied volatility surged sharply, signaling markets pricing in major two-way swings ahead of earnings, while a 43x P/E multiple against a 7x forward estimate creates a stark valuation disconnect. With narrative and valuation in open conflict, is this selloff an overreaction or the first crack in a collapsing bubble?

avatarMO75
07-30
$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ When will this start  rebounce to all time high 
The rise of China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is fundamentally challenging the traditional narrative of the global memory market, which has long been dominated by US and South Korean giants like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix. While CXMT may not completely "unchart" or rewrite the entire global memory paradigm overnight—especially at the bleeding edge of AI hardware —its rapid ascent is rewriting the rules of engagement for US semiconductor firms. 1. Meteoric Market Share Gains CXMT has scaled at a pace that caught Western markets off guard. Driven by massive domestic demand and an upcycle in the memory sector: * CXMT’s global DRAM market share climbed from roughly 3% to around 8%. * Its blockbuster IPO on Shanghai’s STAR Market raised nearly $10 billion, briefly catapulting
avatarL.Lim
07-29
Any orcl fans out there still refusing to accept that it is flaming out hard and that Larry is just using it as a money printer for himself now. There is absolutely no basis for his constant dividend declarations when they are struggling so hard and constantly need investors to fund their rubbish
avatarL.Lim
07-29
I feel that aapl lucked their way into avoiding the fall into the AI hole. They likely saw it was the next big thing, tried to do something (like most of their side quests) then bombed out. Thing is, aapl always retreats to what is safe, so they made the call to put a stop to whatever in house project they had, then started onboarding from external companies. Once you avoid the pressure of having to constantly be the number one AI model, you don't have to sell your house, and can better focus your efforts elsewhere
avatarSPOT_ON
07-29
BUY THE MOST UNDERVALUED STOCK ADOBE NOW

Memory stocks continue to sell off. Is it the bottom pit now or there is still room to drop?

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. The market continue its broad sell off of the tech sector into second day of this trading week. Seems like no micro sector is spared from this bloodbath. Is this the end of the bleeding, or there is much more to come? I would stay out of the tech sector for now, and wait for industrial/whales money to flow back. @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  
Memory stocks continue to sell off. Is it the bottom pit now or there is still room to drop?
The selloff looks more like a cycle reset than a confirmed cycle peak. CXMT's DRAM expansion raises legitimate oversupply concerns, especially for commodity memory, but AI demand remains concentrated in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), where SK Hynix and Micron still hold technology advantages. The key question is whether new Chinese capacity can meaningfully pressure premium AI products or mainly lower-end DRAM. With SK Hynix reporting this week and SanDisk next week, guidance will matter more than headline earnings. If management confirms robust AI demand, HBM pricing and healthy customer commitments, this pullback could prove a mispricing. If they instead signal weakening pricing power and slowing orders, the market may conclude the memory upcycle has peaked. This earnings season should pro
D. The next leg of the tech market will likely depend on execution, not just hype. AI compute demand remains strong, but investors are increasingly asking whether massive capex can translate into sustainable earnings and free cash flow. Nvidia's ecosystem is still the benchmark, while Apple's earnings will show whether capital-efficient models continue to command a premium. DUV qualification and financing conditions will also influence how quickly new capacity comes online. Technical breakthroughs spark the cycle, compute scale enables it, but cash-flow quality ultimately determines who sustains premium valuations. The winners will be companies that can convert AI investment into durable profits, not just higher spending.

Why CXMT’s Blockbuster Debut Is a Warning for Micron and the US Memory Industry

$Cxmt Corporation(688825)$’s 466% Shanghai debut transformed a Chinese semiconductor company into an immediate stock-market giant. More importantly for US investors, the listing gives China’s largest domestic DRAM producer billions of dollars to expand capacity and challenge Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. CXMT sold shares at 8.66 yuan and closed its July 27 debut at 49 yuan after reaching 55.03 yuan. The company raised 57.92 billion yuan, or approximately $8.6 billion, while its market capitalization reached roughly $488 billion. Only 6.73% of the enlarged share count was freely tradable, which likely amplified the price increase. Reuters’ report on CXMT’s trading debut provides the offering and float data. CXMT manufactures DRAM used in smartpho
Why CXMT’s Blockbuster Debut Is a Warning for Micron and the US Memory Industry

CXMT Can Rally More Than 1,200% on Market Share Win, Nomura Says

China's memory-chip bellwether $Cxmt Corporation(688825)$. can extend its blockbuster stock market debut to rally 1,239% from its initial public offering price as it wins market share over time. The stock jumped as much as 535% to 55.03 yuan in its first day of trading in Shanghai, making the company China's largest listed firm onshore. Formerly known as ChangXin Memory Technologies, the firm sold shares at 8.66 yuan apiece via the IPO. "We expect CXMT's market share gain to accelerate considering that the global supply of memory is unlikely to ease in the coming years," analyst Donnie Teng wrote in a note, assigning a buy rating and a 116 yuan target. "Strong demand for agentic AI will drive a more than sevenfold increase in gl
CXMT Can Rally More Than 1,200% on Market Share Win, Nomura Says
China disruptor to the memmory space
avatarShyon
07-28
I would choose B, while keeping D in mind. I'm still bullish on the AI infrastructure ecosystem because I believe we're in the early stages of AI adoption. Nvidia, TSMC and the broader semiconductor supply chain continue to have strong long-term demand. The financing concerns around Nvidia are worth monitoring, but they don't change my long-term view. China's immersion DUV progress is strategically important, but the real test is customer qualification, production stability and repeat orders—not just the first machines. I'll be watching execution rather than headlines, as successful mass production would be a meaningful milestone for the semiconductor industry. Apple reclaiming the top spot shows the market is placing greater value on cash flow and capital efficiency. I believe the next w

AI Memory Stocks Repricing: CXMT’s Record A-share Debut vs Micron / SanDisk

$美光科技(MU)$   $长鑫科技(688825)$   CXMT (688825.SH) became one of the most closely watched semiconductor listings in China. IPO price: RMB 8.66First-day close: RMB 49.00First-day gain: about 465.82%Market cap: about RMB 3.28tn The key question is not only the first-day rally. It is whether China’s DRAM asset should be valued in the same conversation as global AI memory and storage peers, such as Micron, Western Digital and SanDisk. On 2025 revenue, CXMT looks expensive. But on 2026H1E annualized revenue and profit, the valuation story becomes more comparable. This is why CXMT’s debut is not just an IPO event. It is a global AI memory valuation test across AI memory demand, domestic substitu
AI Memory Stocks Repricing: CXMT’s Record A-share Debut vs Micron / SanDisk
I am going out on a limb as the comment I spent 10 minutes writing ended up being totally incorrect, I was of the impression that the article here was to praise the micro chip company nvidia but it was apple (which I sold all of 2 weeks ago) that was getting the seal of approval instead of my opinion that the chip company (cc's, jk , I need a psych ward) made a dramatic 180 and increased 5% , mind my babbling I do have something to say of substance, I'm going to put my eggs into the basket case of the synthetic data and data labelling providers and it's not hard to find out five of the ones I am referring,, that list will lead U to IBM and Amazon but this A is for another company that I'm throwing it all up and into by my only feeling and not any research, but when I do spend my 10k USD on

China’s DUV Push, Apple’s Record High, Nvidia’s 5% Drop: Is Big Tech Being Re-Ranked?

Three very different technology stories hit the market in the same session. China reportedly began producing domestically developed immersion DUV lithography machines, pressuring ASML and the broader semiconductor-equipment sector. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell about 5% as investors questioned how deeply the chip leader may become financially involved with the companies buying its hardware. Meanwhile, $Apple(AAPL)$ reached a record closing high and reclaimed the title of the world’s most valuable listed company. Together, these moves suggest that the market is changing the way it values technology companies. The new questions are becoming clearer: Who controls a critical bottleneck? Who is taking on the financial r
China’s DUV Push, Apple’s Record High, Nvidia’s 5% Drop: Is Big Tech Being Re-Ranked?

CXMT's Blockbuster IPO Sparks Global Memory Selloff: Is the Market Overreacting?

China's DRAM champion CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) made a spectacular debut on Shanghai's STAR Market, with its share price soaring about 460% on the first trading day, pushing its market capitalization to around RMB 3.28 trillion (approximately US$455 billion). At one point, it briefly became the largest listed company in China's A-share market, highlighting investors' enthusiasm for China's semiconductor ambitions. $Cxmt Corporation(688825)$   The blockbuster listing immediately sent shockwaves across the global memory sector. Investors began repricing the outlook for future DRAM supply, triggering broad selling in memory stocks. On Monday: SanDisk (SNDK) fell about 11%, extending its decline to nearly 47% from its June peak.
CXMT's Blockbuster IPO Sparks Global Memory Selloff: Is the Market Overreacting?

Oil Crashed and the TACO Trade Worked—So Why Did Memory Stocks Get Destroyed?

Monday’s market looked completely contradictory. The United States paused its strikes on Iran, Brent crude briefly fell below $88, and oil dropped more than 8% in a single session. Normally, falling oil prices should ease inflation fears and support growth stocks. Instead, AI hardware was crushed. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ closed down about 11% after falling more than 13% intraday. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ lost roughly 5%, while $Western Digital(WDC)$ and $Seagate Technology(STX)$ declined around 4%. $Micron Technology(MU)$ was down more than 7% at
Oil Crashed and the TACO Trade Worked—So Why Did Memory Stocks Get Destroyed?
$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ for those who had followed me. Apologies for not being able to update due to some stuff going on as much as I want to reveal the trading tricks as much as possible I cannot tell you everything . Do follow for more hints 
I lean overreaction, but with a genuine warning embedded in it. Friday’s decline was not isolated to SanDisk. Memory and AI-hardware names were hit broadly, with Micron, Western Digital and Seagate also falling sharply as investors reduced exposure to one of 2026’s strongest trades. That makes the 10%+ move look partly like sector deleveraging and profit-taking rather than evidence that SanDisk’s fundamentals suddenly deteriorated. The bull case remains substantial. NAND pricing and AI/data-centre storage demand have improved dramatically, while analysts remain broadly positive. Recent consensus data still show a Buy rating, although the enormous US$1,000 to US$3,250 target range illustrates how uncertain the valuation has become. Wedbush has actually raised its estimates ahead of the 5 Au
avatarIsleigh
07-27

SanDisk Down 11%: Pre-Earnings Flush or Peak-Cycle Warning?

The uncomfortable answer first: this is probably both, and deciding which one dominates depends entirely on what August 5 delivers. SanDisk has now fallen roughly 31% in a month from its June all-time high, including Friday's 10.79% single-session drop that led the entire memory complex lower. The stock is at $1,471 premarket, up 2.47% as buyers step back in. Options traders are pricing a 25% move in either direction on August 5 earnings. Goldman Sachs has a $2,200 target with a Buy rating. The bear case targets $1,027 if NAND pricing rolls over. That is a 24x spread between bull and bear, which means the market has no consensus on what SanDisk actually is: AI infrastructure compounder or cyclical memory stock at the wrong point in the cycle. What Caused Friday's Drop There was no company-
SanDisk Down 11%: Pre-Earnings Flush or Peak-Cycle Warning?