QQQ Drops 1%+ — Can Elevated Yields Break the Tech Bull?

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) closed down 1.07% Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also retreating as elevated Treasury yields remained the primary headwind for growth stocks; investors shrugged off news of Trump easing Iran sanctions. Session rotation was pronounced — high-beta sectors led by semiconductors bore the brunt as funds locked in tech gains. With yields and the AI thesis in direct conflict, is this tech pullback a healthy rotation — or the first crack in a mid-cycle bull market?

avatar程俊Dream
10-23 18:51

Live Highlights: U.S. Stocks' Last Dance Before Q4 Risks Erupt and 3 Top Trades

Last night, I hosted a livestream on Tiger Futures to discuss shifts in the broader U.S. stock market. I covered the U.S. Dollar Index, including its historical patterns and outlook, and shared trading strategies for currencies, crude oil, and gold. If you missed the session, watch the replay here >> 美股指新一輪的上升浪終於開始了？標普的反彈目標位會達到多少？ Below, I have summarized the key market insights and trading views by topic, so those who missed the session can quickly understand my current outlook. First, a brief introduction: Cheng Jun is a professional trader and guest lecturer at CME Group. He previously served as General Manager of Gold Hea
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Live Highlights: U.S. Stocks' Last Dance Before Q4 Risks Erupt and 3 Top Trades
avatarTiger_Futures Pro
10-21

Futures Positioning Watch: US Index Shorts Retreat as Oil Bsulls Rush for the Exit

What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch?  The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately.   The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital.   For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke
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Futures Positioning Watch: US Index Shorts Retreat as Oil Bsulls Rush for the Exit
avatarKristyyy
10-20
It's been awhile 🥳
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avatarOwen_trading room
10-20

The Worst of the Selloff May Be Over: Straddle Profit Taken,Time to Sell Puts💹

English version： The first thing I did this week was not look for a new trade. I closed the straddle I had put on Nvidia last week. The table below summarizes the positions before I flattened the trade. The contrast was striking. The NVDA 227.5 call cost 4.39 and had fallen to 0.24, a loss of 94.53%. The put at the same strike and expiration cost 3.97 and had risen to 13.63, a gain of 243.61%. One leg was almost worthless, while the other had nearly tripled. Together they left the account with a profit of $2,530.50. That is the point of a straddle: you are betting on a large move, not on direction. Once the volatility has been realized, you should not overstay the trade. $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
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The Worst of the Selloff May Be Over: Straddle Profit Taken,Time to Sell Puts💹
avatarLordJatonyas
10-16
It's certainly an opportunity to buy the dip now, but one has to consider the risk-to-reward of many of these AI positions. For example, if you're buying the dip on $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$   which was already at $1T, even if it climbs to become a $3T company (and that would be saying a lot), you'd only have gained 3x while exposing yourself to a potential trend reversal. The latest macroeconomic numbers aren't helping either as we're approaching the Peak of the business cycle, I think buying the dip would be a short term play.
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avatarTiger_Futures Captain
10-15

Weekly Futures Options Watch: Bulls Beware! Massive Deep OTMNasdaq Put Trade Emerges

Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str
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Weekly Futures Options Watch: Bulls Beware! Massive Deep OTMNasdaq Put Trade Emerges
avatarderickt
10-04
$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ is here to stay 
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avatarLiverpoolRed
10-04
A for the answer
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avatarTiger_comments
10-04

HDD Stocks Plunge 10%: Are Seagate and WDC Losing Their Scarcity Premium?

HDD stocks took a sharp hit in the latest session. $Seagate Technology(STX)$ and $Western Digital(WDC)$ both fell about 10.2%, even as the broader tech market held up much better. This was not a broad AI hardware selloff. The pressure was concentrated in HDD names, and the trigger came from Toshiba. Toshiba reportedly plans to invest around ¥60 billion to expand its Philippine operations and roughly double HDD capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027 compared with 2025 levels. The company is also targeting a much larger share of the global HDD market over time. That immediately raised a key concern for investors: if the industry’s No. 3 player starts adding meaningful capacity, how long can Seagate and W
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HDD Stocks Plunge 10%: Are Seagate and WDC Losing Their Scarcity Premium?
avatarAqa
10-02
Choice B, 100K-200K, which means the U.S. job market still growing, but at a more moderate pace. Thank you & big ‘Like’ @TigerEvents 👍🏻
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avatarFlameless Phoenix
10-01
Good News Still Needs Follow-Through My takeaway from Wednesday's session is that a reassuring headline is not enough. Cooler inflation gave the market a reason to rally, but buyers struggled to hold the move. I care more about that reaction than the story I wanted the market to tell. These are my risk-review and watchlist plans for the next session, not a report of orders placed or trades completed. The contrast between the indices and the broader market keeps me cautious. Technology offered some support, yet participation elsewhere remained weak. Rising longer-term bond yields added another complication. I do not need to settle the whole macroeconomic debate before managing a trade; I need to notice when the conditions around it are becoming less forgiving. EMBJ is the first holding I wa
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avatarPawsAndProfits
10-01

Comsumer spending did not slow down despite hotter inflation numbers and rate hikes. When

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So consumer spending was better than market estimate today, resulting in a continue bullish sentiment in equities. However, it might be a short term catalyst as macro issues such as oil price war, inflated treasury yield prices and countries being inflection inside of collaboration d/t Trump strategy to cause tension and divison. Coupled with the traditional “bearish” period coming up as fund managers rebalance their portfolios, let’s see if indices can continue breaking new high, or fall like a knife.[Spurting] @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]
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Comsumer spending did not slow down despite hotter inflation numbers and rate hikes. When
avatarTiger_Futures Pro
09-30

Macro Strategy Weekly:Treasury Yields Above 5%,How to Position for a Potential Long-Bond Rebound?

Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon
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Macro Strategy Weekly:Treasury Yields Above 5%,How to Position for a Potential Long-Bond Rebound?
avatarLanceljx
09-30
A. Below 100K. My prediction is around 90K jobs added in September. The labour market does not look like it is collapsing, but hiring appears to be cooling despite relatively low layoffs. For the bonus question, I think Treasury yields move first if payrolls significantly beat expectations. A strong jobs print could quickly shift expectations towards tighter Fed policy, pushing yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Stocks, especially rate-sensitive growth and tech names, could then come under pressure as higher yields are priced in.
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avatarMathematical Money
09-30
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   The Nasdaq Held. The Long Bond Didn't. My Calls Followed The Wrong One. Mathematical Money | September 30, 2026 The question going round is whether elevated yields break the tech bull. I think that's the wrong place to be looking, and I can show you why using my own book rather than theory. Start with what actually happened The 30-year Treasury yield touched just above 5.6% on Monday, the highest since June 2002, and the 10-year sits around 5.24%. Now look at what that did to two different things over the last three months. TLT, the long-dated Treasury ETF, is down about 9.5%. QQQ is up about 0.2%. Three months. The bond market has been repriced violently and the Nasdaq has gone sideways — Monday's 0.9% slip in QQQ is
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avatarnerdbull1669
09-30

Yields, AI Infrastructure, and the Tech Bull Market

Elevated Treasury yields are applying significant valuation pressure on tech stocks. We saw QQQ drops more than 1%. So in this article, we would like to share our comprehensive analysis of valuation pressure, balance sheet strength, and strategic ETF allocation to look at whether elevated yields would break the tech bull. 1. Introduction: The Yield-Valuation Tug-of-War The relationship between fixed-income markets and equity valuations has once again taken center stage. When benchmark sovereign yields climb, the gravitational pull on risk assets intensifies. Recently, a swift upward repricing in Treasury yields triggered immediate defensive selling across growth equities, pushing major benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF ( $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
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Yields, AI Infrastructure, and the Tech Bull Market
avatarJovyJoseBulos
09-30
Interesting and should look into it 
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avatarMillionaireTiger
09-29

[Winning Trade] One Tiger Made $42K on TQQQ — Now What?

The Nasdaq is back at record highs, AI stocks are leading again, and one Tiger investor is sitting on a US$42,309 gain in TQQQ. Congrats to the @mushrooz who is up US$42,309 on TQQQ. The latest Nasdaq rally has been driven by more than just another round of AI hype.Semiconductors, memory and mega-cap tech have all participated. AMD, Intel and Arm surged in the same session earlier this month, while names like Micron and SanDisk later joined the move. Investors are still betting that AI spending has further to run, and that more of that spending will eventually show up in revenue and earnings. That matters because the biggest concern around AI has never really been whether companies would spend. The concern was whether all that spending
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[Winning Trade] One Tiger Made $42K on TQQQ — Now What?
avatarTiger_Futures Captain
09-29

Big Options Bets: Nasdaq 30,900 Puts Build as Gold Bulls Defend $4,200—Which Side Are You On?📈📉

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti
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Big Options Bets: Nasdaq 30,900 Puts Build as Gold Bulls Defend $4,200—Which Side Are You On?📈📉
avatarmatthew_more
09-29

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