To The Moon

US stock futures moved higher while crude oil pulled back as investors assessed the latest geopolitical situation involving Iran and prepared for a series of central bank rate announcements scheduled for this week.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6%, and S&P 500 contracts added 0.4% following a decline in the benchmark on Friday. Brent crude fell more than 1% to approximately $115 per barrel, stepping back from its highest settlement since April. President Donald Trump indicated it is "getting to be decision time" regarding whether to pursue an agreement with Tehran or restart attacks, as threats from Iran and the Houthis against Americans in the Middle East escalate.

Asian stocks were poised for a mixed opening, with gains in US futures providing some cushion while recent softness in technology shares acted as a drag. An index of chipmakers last week recorded its longest streak of weekly declines since November, casting doubt on the staying power of any recovery in the artificial intelligence sector.

The dollar held broadly stable against its Group-of-10 counterparts on Monday after finishing last week weaker. Treasuries had surrendered some of their earlier advances on Friday as US technology stocks and French bonds found stability. The euro was quoted higher early Monday after France avoided a downgrade from Moody's Ratings.

Investors are entering a critical period as renewed geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation and vulnerabilities in the artificial intelligence trade test risk appetite approaching November. Central-bank decisions in the US, euro zone and Japan this week will deliver the next challenge, with policymakers weighing the threat of higher energy costs against signs of stress across financial markets.

"We stay tactically risk-off until mid-Nov," Michael Hartnett, strategist at Bank of America Corp., wrote in a note to clients. "Expect down-in-yields, down-in-stocks, down-in US dollar trade."

The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023 and signaled another increase was likely this year. While US inflation has remained elevated, officials have indicated little urgency to move again this week, with economists and investors expecting the next increase in December.

Geopolitical risks are also likely to remain elevated heading into next month. Trump has suggested US strikes on Iran could resume after the Nov. 3 midterm elections, while officials have warned the period between the vote and the new Congress taking office could be particularly dangerous.

The US is reducing diplomatic and military staffing in parts of the Middle East as threats from Iran and the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen increase. The Houthis have repeatedly targeted Riyadh airport, which reopened Sunday for commercial flights.

"All indications point to a resumption of war and a major bombing campaign, although the timing remains uncertain," said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, an expert on the Middle East at the Brookings Institution.