Like other health insurers, CVS Health stock has notched a strong run this year, bouncing back from cost woes in the Medicare Advantage program. When the company reports earnings Wednesday, investors will get a better sense of whether -- and where -- the rally has room to continue.
Shares are already up nearly 32% in 2026, compared with the S&P 500's 13% gain.
UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo says investors could see upside in two segments: health services, which houses the company's Caremark pharmacy-benefit manager, and health care benefits, its Aetna insurance arm.
"We would expect management to raise the guide by any 2Q beat given management's overall conservative nature," Caliendo wrote in a July research note.
While the health services segment faces a roughly $500 million headwind embedded in guidance, the tone from executives has been positive, Caliendo wrote, saying that it "reflects confidence" in the segment's trajectory.
Wall Street analysts expect adjusted earnings per share of $1.85 on revenue of $100.028 billion, according to a FactSet poll. Both estimates would represent increases from the same quarter last year, when the company delivered adjusted EPS of $1.81 on revenue of $98.915 billion.
In May, CVS raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance by 4% to a range of $7.30 to $7.50.
The current consensus of $7.45, according to FactSet, lands at the higher end of that range. UBS last month raised its full-year EPS estimate to $7.59 and lifted its price target to $122 from $115.
CVS shares rose 6% after the company reported first-quarter results, as investors looked for signs of a recovery in its health insurance business.
During the May earnings call, chief financial officer Brian Newman said the company was pleased with Aetna's performance. Pockets of "core outperformance" weren't reflected in the updated guidance, Newman said, because it was still early in the year.
Leerink Partners analyst Michael Cherny called it a "strong start" to 2026 for the insurance business, which he said is making progress toward target margins in Medicare Advantage.
"We remain positive on CVS heading into 2Q as each segment appears set up well to execute and the potential for meaningfully higher out-year earnings power remains in place," Cherny wrote in a client note last month. Leerink raised its price target to $119 from $110.
