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2021-07-12

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Has the biggest test for the US stock market finally arrived? Can the performance support the valuation?

企业的业绩到底是继续大幅增长，还是出现断崖式下跌，这将是未来几个月的最大考验。

Has the biggest test for the US stock market finally arrived? Can the performance support the valuation?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":146654569,"tweetId":"146654569","gmtCreate":1626078219951,"gmtModify":1703752878620,"author":{"id":3583994288696392,"idStr":"3583994288696392","authorId":3583994288696392,"authorIdStr":"3583994288696392","name":"Elvan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff0e8b90b25bd323f5bb15ac247bd641","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146654569","repostId":2150302995,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150302995","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1626078007,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150302995?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 16:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Has the biggest test for the US stock market finally arrived? Can the performance support the valuation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150302995","media":"美股研究社","summary":"企业的业绩到底是继续大幅增长，还是出现断崖式下跌，这将是未来几个月的最大考验。","content":"It's time to meet everyone again this weekend. Although there were some intraday fluctuations last week, the three major stock indices still closed strongly higher. Even if there was a pullback, it reversed within the day, and the upward momentum was frighteningly strong.Next week is earnings season, and US stocks have already risen to such high levels that even an ugly daughter-in-law has to meet her parents. Whether corporate performance will continue to grow significantly or experience a precipitous decline will be the biggest test in the coming months. After all, no matter how much the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, the rise in stock prices will ultimately return to fundamentals in the long run.The most worrying thing last week was that even before the earnings season officially started, the FAAMG hit record highs. We experienced a similar scenario during the first-quarter earnings season, which started on April 15. The final result was a sell-off in May, with the Nasdaq pullback/retracement down 10% from its high.Let's first take a look at the first-quarter financial reports of the seven major Chinese and American tech giants:AAPL: Revenue of $89.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of 53.6%. Net profit was $23.63 billion, up 110% year-on-year.GOOG: Revenue was $55.314 billion, up 34% year-over-year, and net profit was $17.93 billion, up 162% year-over-year.MSFT: Revenue of $41.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19%; Net profit was $15.5 billion, up 44% year-on-year.Facebook: Revenue of $26.171 billion, a year-over-year increase of 48%; Net profit was $9.497 billion, a year-on-year increase of 94%.AMZN: Revenue of $108.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 44%; Net profit was $8.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 220%.BABA: Revenue of $29.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 64%; Net profit was $4.073 billion, up 18% year-on-year.Tencent: Revenue of $21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%; Net profit was US$5.147 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%.Seeing the data above, I believe everyone will share my thoughts: FAAMG's performance is truly terrifying, especially its profit growth. Alibaba and Tencent are completely different from each other, but even with such financial reports, they all failed in the end. At that time, the market was already worried about the unsustainability of its growth.Why was the first-quarter financial report so strong? On the one hand, the United States was not yet under complete lockdown in the first quarter of last year, and internet giants had not yet ushered in an opportunity to accelerate growth, resulting in a relatively low overall revenue base. However, in the first quarter of this year, they continued to enjoy the benefits of the pandemic, which naturally led to explosive growth. On the other hand, the US government has issued too much money, and people earn more without working than if they did. In addition, with the vaccine now available, various retaliatory consumption is rampant, which is also conducive to boosting the performance of technology stocks.After entering the second quarter earnings report, we will encounter this double negative feedback. In the second quarter of last year, the revenue of internet giants began to accelerate due to the impact of the pandemic dividend, with a very large revenue base. However, in the second quarter of this year, due to the disappearance of the pandemic dividend, the revenue growth rate may slow down. Several states in the United States have begun to stop issuing subsidies, which is somewhat detrimental to consumption growth. Compared to the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of technology stocks is bound to slow down, or rather, return to normal.FAAMG has currently reached record highs, with gains exceeding 20% in the past two months, and is likely to continue rising in the coming week. When the earnings report is released, can they still hold their high levels? When the Nasdaq was at 14,000, such strong first-quarter performance ultimately failed to hold up. Before the release of second-quarter tech earnings reports, the Nasdaq is likely to have already risen to the 15,000-15,200 range. However, at this level, we are entering a phase of slowing revenue growth. Can the company's performance growth support the current high valuation? I am very worried that the market will experience another sell-off at the end of April, leading to a deep correction.Leaving aside the distant details, let's talk about AMZN. During the recent Prime Day holiday, Amazon's annual promotional revenue only grew by 9%, and institutions lowered their expectations for Amazon's second-quarter revenue growth to 28%, while their expectations for third-quarter revenue growth were 22%. Imagine a company's stock price rising from $3,000 to $3,800, but its revenue growth rate dropping from 44% to 28%. Can such an increase be sustained? What I'm most worried about is whether consumption can maintain the same high growth as in the first quarter after the US relief subsidies stop being distributed.My analysis above was after the 20th, because FAAMG's financial reports are basically released after the 20th. Next week will mainly feature bank stock earnings reports, which should be very stable at this stage. After all, bank stocks have been adjusting for two months in advance and haven't risen much recently. Now is the time to take advantage of positive earnings reports to surge. Therefore, our target price remains unchanged, and the Nasdaq continues to rise to the 15,000-15,200 range. You can even be more optimistic and aggressive.According to Refinitiv data, the banking sector is expected to generate explosive results in the second quarter as earnings in the financial sector of the S&P 500 index doubled year-over-year. Major banks recently announced they would increase their dividend payouts after the Federal Reserve praised lenders as all 23 banks passed the central bank’s stress test.Bank stocks led Wall Street's sell-off on Thursday as some investors reduced their holdings amid an unexpected drop in U.S. Treasury Bond yields. They then immediately hit back on Friday, saying strong earnings results could help stabilize an industry shaken by heightened concerns about slowing growth.For the Banks sector (including these major Banks, which account for approximately 45% of total financial sector revenue), Zacks expects second-quarter revenue to grow by +190.8%.With such strong profit growth expectations, I think it's unlikely we'll see a sharp drop in bank stocks next week. As long as bank stocks don't fall, the three major stock indices will inevitably continue to surge mindlessly. It should only be a matter of time before the Nasdaq breaks through 15,000 for the first time. But after the mindless surge next week, you might want to consider reducing your positions. The reasons have already been explained quite clearly above.The current market remains very optimistic. Callie Bost, senior investment strategist at investment firm Ally Invest, said, \"Economic growth may have performed exceptionally well in the second quarter. Earnings growth may slow, but analysts still expect S&P 500 companies to achieve double-digit earnings growth in the next two quarters. It's crucial not to lose confidence in the market just because the strongest economic growth may be over.\"This round of mindless surges is largely related to the continuous decline in the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond of US Treasury bonds. If you can't make money in the bond market, money will naturally flow into the stock market. Data provider EPFR said that $580 billion flowed into global equity funds in the first half of 2021, a record high.Bank of America further analyzed that if the rate of capital inflows remains unchanged for the remainder of this year, global equity fund inflows in 2021 will exceed the total of the past 20 years. Driven by continuous capital inflows, major global stock indices have climbed to record highs in the past week.Although many people are currently very afraid of heights, we need to get used to this situation where global stock markets are constantly breaking records. Companies such as BlackRock, State Street, UBS Asset Management, and JPMorgan Chase Asset Management predict that the stock market will continue to rise in the second half of this year, and some institutions have even given a target price for the S&P 500 to rise to 5,000.To put it bluntly, although the US stock market may experience significant fluctuations after late July, given that it has risen so much in such a short period of time, many people will definitely take advantage of the earnings reports to run away. However, as long as the Federal Reserve does not tighten its policies, the overall upward trend of the US stock market is unlikely to change.As for how to plan for the second half of the year? Between June 23 and 30, CNBC surveyed about 100 chief investment officers, equity strategists, and portfolio managers who manage funds on Wall Street. Nearly 70% of respondents expected value stocks to outperform growth stocks in the next quarter. At the industry sector level, most investors (67%) believed that financial stocks would be the biggest winners in the second half of the year, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's gradual reduction in discussions about buying bonds, inflation, corporate profit margin pressures, and tax increases.We remain bullish on US stocks, but investing requires a cyclical mindset. Technology stocks have already risen to this level and are likely to enter a phase of slow growth, while value stocks may make a comeback. After the 20th, US stocks may not necessarily plummet. It's just that technology stocks are risky. Perhaps a large-scale portfolio adjustment will completely alleviate the potential risks.Of course, it is too early to predict these things now, after all, the market is constantly changing, and such a scenario cannot be ruled out during this earnings season in the US stock market. After FAAMG released its earnings report, AMZN, NFLX, ASML, GOOG, SHOP, LRCX, and ADBE all announced stock splits, or any of these giants announced a stock split, which would lead to a mindless surge in tech stocks. In particular, AMZN is highly likely to release its first financial report after taking office, and then give investors a big gift. It really is unknown where the US stock market is going to rise.Therefore, we should seize the present, not overthink it, and not worry about the huge bubble in the US stock market. In the coming week, we should focus on going long on bank stocks and seize the opportunities here first. As for the possible pullback in technology stocks, it should be seen as a new opportunity to buy in.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has the biggest test for the US stock market finally arrived? Can the performance support the valuation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas the biggest test for the US stock market finally arrived? Can the performance support the valuation?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n美股研究社 \n2021-07-12 16:20\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt's time to meet everyone again this weekend. Although there were some intraday fluctuations last week, the three major stock indices still closed strongly higher. Even if there was a pullback, it reversed within the day, and the upward momentum was frighteningly strong.Next week is earnings season, and US stocks have already risen to such high levels that even an ugly daughter-in-law has to meet her parents. Whether corporate performance will continue to grow significantly or experience a precipitous decline will be the biggest test in the coming months. After all, no matter how much the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, the rise in stock prices will ultimately return to fundamentals in the long run.The most worrying thing last week was that even before the earnings season officially started, the FAAMG hit record highs. We experienced a similar scenario during the first-quarter earnings season, which started on April 15. The final result was a sell-off in May, with the Nasdaq pullback/retracement down 10% from its high.Let's first take a look at the first-quarter financial reports of the seven major Chinese and American tech giants:AAPL: Revenue of $89.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of 53.6%. Net profit was $23.63 billion, up 110% year-on-year.GOOG: Revenue was $55.314 billion, up 34% year-over-year, and net profit was $17.93 billion, up 162% year-over-year.MSFT: Revenue of $41.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19%; Net profit was $15.5 billion, up 44% year-on-year.Facebook: Revenue of $26.171 billion, a year-over-year increase of 48%; Net profit was $9.497 billion, a year-on-year increase of 94%.AMZN: Revenue of $108.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 44%; Net profit was $8.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 220%.BABA: Revenue of $29.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 64%; Net profit was $4.073 billion, up 18% year-on-year.Tencent: Revenue of $21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%; Net profit was US$5.147 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%.Seeing the data above, I believe everyone will share my thoughts: FAAMG's performance is truly terrifying, especially its profit growth. Alibaba and Tencent are completely different from each other, but even with such financial reports, they all failed in the end. At that time, the market was already worried about the unsustainability of its growth.Why was the first-quarter financial report so strong? On the one hand, the United States was not yet under complete lockdown in the first quarter of last year, and internet giants had not yet ushered in an opportunity to accelerate growth, resulting in a relatively low overall revenue base. However, in the first quarter of this year, they continued to enjoy the benefits of the pandemic, which naturally led to explosive growth. On the other hand, the US government has issued too much money, and people earn more without working than if they did. In addition, with the vaccine now available, various retaliatory consumption is rampant, which is also conducive to boosting the performance of technology stocks.After entering the second quarter earnings report, we will encounter this double negative feedback. In the second quarter of last year, the revenue of internet giants began to accelerate due to the impact of the pandemic dividend, with a very large revenue base. However, in the second quarter of this year, due to the disappearance of the pandemic dividend, the revenue growth rate may slow down. Several states in the United States have begun to stop issuing subsidies, which is somewhat detrimental to consumption growth. Compared to the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of technology stocks is bound to slow down, or rather, return to normal.FAAMG has currently reached record highs, with gains exceeding 20% in the past two months, and is likely to continue rising in the coming week. When the earnings report is released, can they still hold their high levels? When the Nasdaq was at 14,000, such strong first-quarter performance ultimately failed to hold up. Before the release of second-quarter tech earnings reports, the Nasdaq is likely to have already risen to the 15,000-15,200 range. However, at this level, we are entering a phase of slowing revenue growth. Can the company's performance growth support the current high valuation? I am very worried that the market will experience another sell-off at the end of April, leading to a deep correction.Leaving aside the distant details, let's talk about AMZN. During the recent Prime Day holiday, Amazon's annual promotional revenue only grew by 9%, and institutions lowered their expectations for Amazon's second-quarter revenue growth to 28%, while their expectations for third-quarter revenue growth were 22%. Imagine a company's stock price rising from $3,000 to $3,800, but its revenue growth rate dropping from 44% to 28%. Can such an increase be sustained? What I'm most worried about is whether consumption can maintain the same high growth as in the first quarter after the US relief subsidies stop being distributed.My analysis above was after the 20th, because FAAMG's financial reports are basically released after the 20th. Next week will mainly feature bank stock earnings reports, which should be very stable at this stage. After all, bank stocks have been adjusting for two months in advance and haven't risen much recently. Now is the time to take advantage of positive earnings reports to surge. Therefore, our target price remains unchanged, and the Nasdaq continues to rise to the 15,000-15,200 range. You can even be more optimistic and aggressive.According to Refinitiv data, the banking sector is expected to generate explosive results in the second quarter as earnings in the financial sector of the S&P 500 index doubled year-over-year. Major banks recently announced they would increase their dividend payouts after the Federal Reserve praised lenders as all 23 banks passed the central bank’s stress test.Bank stocks led Wall Street's sell-off on Thursday as some investors reduced their holdings amid an unexpected drop in U.S. Treasury Bond yields. They then immediately hit back on Friday, saying strong earnings results could help stabilize an industry shaken by heightened concerns about slowing growth.For the Banks sector (including these major Banks, which account for approximately 45% of total financial sector revenue), Zacks expects second-quarter revenue to grow by +190.8%.With such strong profit growth expectations, I think it's unlikely we'll see a sharp drop in bank stocks next week. As long as bank stocks don't fall, the three major stock indices will inevitably continue to surge mindlessly. It should only be a matter of time before the Nasdaq breaks through 15,000 for the first time. But after the mindless surge next week, you might want to consider reducing your positions. The reasons have already been explained quite clearly above.The current market remains very optimistic. Callie Bost, senior investment strategist at investment firm Ally Invest, said, \"Economic growth may have performed exceptionally well in the second quarter. Earnings growth may slow, but analysts still expect S&P 500 companies to achieve double-digit earnings growth in the next two quarters. It's crucial not to lose confidence in the market just because the strongest economic growth may be over.\"This round of mindless surges is largely related to the continuous decline in the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond of US Treasury bonds. If you can't make money in the bond market, money will naturally flow into the stock market. Data provider EPFR said that $580 billion flowed into global equity funds in the first half of 2021, a record high.Bank of America further analyzed that if the rate of capital inflows remains unchanged for the remainder of this year, global equity fund inflows in 2021 will exceed the total of the past 20 years. Driven by continuous capital inflows, major global stock indices have climbed to record highs in the past week.Although many people are currently very afraid of heights, we need to get used to this situation where global stock markets are constantly breaking records. Companies such as BlackRock, State Street, UBS Asset Management, and JPMorgan Chase Asset Management predict that the stock market will continue to rise in the second half of this year, and some institutions have even given a target price for the S&P 500 to rise to 5,000.To put it bluntly, although the US stock market may experience significant fluctuations after late July, given that it has risen so much in such a short period of time, many people will definitely take advantage of the earnings reports to run away. However, as long as the Federal Reserve does not tighten its policies, the overall upward trend of the US stock market is unlikely to change.As for how to plan for the second half of the year? Between June 23 and 30, CNBC surveyed about 100 chief investment officers, equity strategists, and portfolio managers who manage funds on Wall Street. Nearly 70% of respondents expected value stocks to outperform growth stocks in the next quarter. At the industry sector level, most investors (67%) believed that financial stocks would be the biggest winners in the second half of the year, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's gradual reduction in discussions about buying bonds, inflation, corporate profit margin pressures, and tax increases.We remain bullish on US stocks, but investing requires a cyclical mindset. Technology stocks have already risen to this level and are likely to enter a phase of slow growth, while value stocks may make a comeback. After the 20th, US stocks may not necessarily plummet. It's just that technology stocks are risky. Perhaps a large-scale portfolio adjustment will completely alleviate the potential risks.Of course, it is too early to predict these things now, after all, the market is constantly changing, and such a scenario cannot be ruled out during this earnings season in the US stock market. After FAAMG released its earnings report, AMZN, NFLX, ASML, GOOG, SHOP, LRCX, and ADBE all announced stock splits, or any of these giants announced a stock split, which would lead to a mindless surge in tech stocks. In particular, AMZN is highly likely to release its first financial report after taking office, and then give investors a big gift. It really is unknown where the US stock market is going to rise.Therefore, we should seize the present, not overthink it, and not worry about the huge bubble in the US stock market. In the coming week, we should focus on going long on bank stocks and seize the opportunities here first. As for the possible pullback in technology stocks, it should be seen as a new opportunity to buy in.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9f05ab18a70559b03deab3f261ff27d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150302995","content_text":"又到了和大家周末见面的时候，上周虽然盘中经历了一些震荡，但三大股指仍然强势收涨，即使有回调也在日内就形成了反转，上涨动能强势的可怕。\n下周即将迎来财报季，美股已经涨到如此高的位置，丑媳妇也得见爹娘，企业的业绩到底是继续大幅增长，还是出现断崖式下跌，这将是未来几个月的最大考验，毕竟美联储再如何放水，股价的上涨长期还是要回归基本面。\n上周最让人担心的一件事，那就是财报季还没正式开启，FAAMG就纷纷创下了历史新高，类似的剧情我们刚刚在4月15日开启的一季度财报季就曾经历过，最后的结果是迎来了Sell in May，纳指从高位回撤了10%。\n在这里，我们还是先来感受下中美七大科技巨头的一季度财报吧：\nAAPL：营收896亿美元 同比增长53.6%。净利润236.3亿美元，同比增长110%。\nGOOG：营收553.14亿美元，同比增长34%，净利润179.30亿美元，同比增长162%。\nMSFT：营收417亿美元，同比增长19%；净利润155亿美元，同比增长44%。\nFB：营收261.71亿美元，同比增长48%；净利润94.97亿美元，同比增长94%。\nAMZN：营收1085亿美元，同比增长44%；净利润81亿美元，同比增长220%。\nBABA：营收291亿美元，同比增长64%；净利润40.73亿美元，同比增长18%。\n腾讯：营收210亿美元，同比增长25%；净利润51.47亿美元，同比增长22%。\n看到上面这组数据，相信大家应该和我一样的想法，FAAMG的业绩真是强的可怕，尤其是利润增长，阿里和腾讯真完全不是一个级别，但就是这样的财报，最后全部都是见光死，市场当时已经开始担忧增长不可持续的事了。\n一季度财报为什么这么强劲？一方面，去年一季度美国还没有全面封锁，互联网巨头还没有迎来加速增长的契机，营收基数整体比较低，今年一季度则仍然在继续享受疫情红利，自然就出现了爆发式增长；另一方面，美国政府发钱实在发的太多了，不上班比上班挣得还要多，再加上疫苗已经出来，各种报复性消费铺天盖地，这也有利于科技股的业绩提振。\n进入二季度财报之后，我们会迎来这种负向的双重反馈。去年二季度，互联网巨头的营收在疫情红利的影响下开始加速增长，营收基数非常大，今年二季度则因为疫情红利的消失，营收增速有可能会放缓；美国多个洲已经开始停止发放补助，这一定程度上又有点不利于消费增长。科技股的营收增速，相比一季度，势必会进入一个放缓阶段，或者应该说是回归常态。\nFAAMG当前都已经历史新高，在过去两个月时间，涨幅均超过20%，并且在未来一周，很可能继续涨下去，真到了财报公布的时候，它们还能在高位稳住吗？纳指14000的时候，一季度如此强劲的业绩，最后都没有撑住。二季度科技股财报来临之前，纳指很可能已经涨到了15000~15200这个区间，但在这个位置，我们迎来一个营收增速放缓的阶段，企业的业绩增长能够撑起当前的高估值吗？我很担心，市场会再经历一次4月末的卖出消息，从而进行一次深度的调整。\n远的不说，我们就来说下AMZN。刚刚过去的Prime Day，亚马逊年度促销的营收才增长了9%，机构对亚马逊二季度营收增长预期也下滑到了28%，对三季度的营收增长预期是22%。想象一下，一家公司的股价从3000美元涨到了3800美元，营收增速却从44%掉到了28%，这样的上涨能否持久。我最担心的，其实还是美国的救济补助停止发放之后，消费还能保持一季度那样的高增长吗？\n我上面的分析那是20号之后的事，因为FAAMG的财报基本都在20号之后。下一周主要是银行股财报，这个阶段应该是非常稳定的。毕竟银行股已经提前调整了两个月时间，最近也没怎么涨，现在正是借着财报利好暴力拉升的时候。所以我们的目标价仍然不变，纳指继续看涨到15000~15200这个区间，你甚至都可以更乐观更激进点。\nRefinitiv 的数据显示，随着标准普尔 500 指数金融板块的收益同比翻番，银行业预计将在第二季度产生井喷式业绩。由于所有 23 家银行都通过了中央银行的压力测试，因此在美联储对贷方表示赞赏后，主要银行最近宣布将增加派息。\n银行股领涨华尔街周四的抛售，因为一些投资者在美国国债收益率意外下跌的情况下减持。然后他们在周五立即回击，强劲的盈利结果可能有助于稳定在对增长放缓的担忧加剧的情况下震荡的行业。\n对于 Banks 行业（包括这些主要银行，约占金融部门总收益的 45%），Zacks预计第二季度收益将增长 +190.8%。\n这样的强劲利润增长预期，我想下周很难看到银行股暴跌的情况，银行股只要不跌，那三大股指必然继续无脑暴涨，纳指首次突破15000，应该就是时间问题了。但经历下周无脑暴涨之后，或许你该考虑减仓的事，至于原因，上面已经说得相当清楚了。\n当前的市场其实仍然非常乐观，投资公司Ally Invest的资深投资策略师卡莉·波斯特（Callie Bost）表示，“在第二季度里，经济增长可能取得了极好的表现。盈利增长可能放缓，但分析师仍旧预计标普500指数成分股公司的盈利在未来两个季度将实现两位数增长。不能因为经济最强劲的增长可能已经过去，就对市场失去信心，这一点至关重要。”\n这一轮的无脑暴涨，很大程度上和美债十年期国债收益率的不断走低有关系，债市赚不到钱，钱自然就纷纷涌向了股市。数据提供商EPFR表示，2021年上半年流入全球股票基金的资金达到5800亿美元，创下了历史最高。\n美国银行更是给出了进一步分析，如果今年剩余时间里资金流入速度保持不变，2021年全球股票基金的资金流入数将超过过去20年的总和。持续流入的资金推动，全球主要股指在过去一周接连攀升至创纪录高位。\n虽然很多朋友当前非常恐高，但我们要习惯这种全球股市不断刷新纪录的情况。贝莱德、道富、瑞银资管、摩根大通资管等公司预计，今年下半年股市将继续上涨，现在甚至有机构给出标普涨到5000的目标价了。\n说白了，虽然可能7月下旬之后，美股会迎来比较大的波动，毕竟在极短的时间涨了这么多，肯定会有很多人借财报获利跑路的，但只要美联储政策不收紧，美股整体继续往上的趋势怕是不会改变。\n至于下半年该如何布局？在6月23日至30日期间，CNBC对华尔街约100名管理资金的首席投资官、股票策略师、投资组合经理进行了调查，近70%的受访者预计，下个季度价值型股票的表现将好于成长型股票，在行业板块层面，大多数投资者(67%)认为，金融类股将在下半年成为最大赢家，这主要因为美联储逐渐减少买债的讨论、通胀、企业利润率压力及加税。\n我们仍然看涨美股，但投资必须要有周期性布局思维，科技股已经涨成这样，并且很有可能会进入一个缓慢增长阶段，而价值股有可能再次重新王者归来。20号之后，美股不一定会暴跌，只是说科技股有风险，或许我们进行一次大规模的调仓，就彻底缓解了可能面临的风险呢？\n当然，现在预测这些都为时尚早，毕竟市场一直是在变化的，美股这次财报季不排除会有这样的剧情。FAAMG财报发完之后，AMZN、NFLX、ASML、GOOG、SHOP、LRCX、ADBE纷纷宣布拆股，或者这其中任何一家巨头宣布拆股，那都会带着科技股继续无脑暴涨。尤其AMZN概率不小，新CEO上任的第一份财报，然后送给投资者一份大礼，那美股这真不知道要涨到哪里去了。\n所以我们还是要把握当下，不要想太多，也不要去担心美股泡沫已经巨大，未来一周重点做多银行股，先把这里的机会抓到再说。至于科技股可能的回调，那也要看成是新的上车机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"03086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3658,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}