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2021-06-19

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While the Federal Reserve is turning hawkish, Goldman Sachs is once again bullish on gold: an excellent defensive asset.

受美联储政策决议影响，本周多个市场剧烈波动，黄金大跌，但高盛表示继续看好黄金后市，并预测未来几周内黄金价格将出现上行逆转。

While the Federal Reserve is turning hawkish, Goldman Sachs is once again bullish on gold: an excellent defensive asset.

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One of its studies states:</p><p><span>Gold did not experience strong growth under previous inflationary conditions, which may mean that demand for gold is limited, whether as a defensive asset or an inflation hedge.</span></p><p><span>But this is not the case, for two reasons.</span></p><p><span>First, as our interest rate strategists have pointed out, the current 10-year break-even inflation rate appears too low compared to the inflation path predicted by our economists.</span><span>In fact, this means that there will be almost no inflation risk premium in the coming years.</span></p><p><span>Secondly, if the Federal Reserve's short-term inflation expectations come true, rate hike will begin to become an unnecessary obstacle to the global recovery, damaging economic growth expectations and increasing the defensive value of gold.</span></p><p>In addition, regarding the commodities and crude oil markets, Goldman Sachs also stated:</p><p>Commodity prices have recently fallen due to the Federal Reserve's decision to bring forward its rate hike forecast to 2023, presenting a buying opportunity for investors. The bullish argument for commodities is neither about inflation risks nor about the Federal Reserve's forward guidance. Instead, it's about scarcity and strong real-world demand.</p><p>Driven by strong demand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00001\">Changhe</a>Given the lack of elastic supply, we believe the resulting physical scarcity could push Brent crude oil prices to an average of $80 in the third quarter and potentially surge above that level.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs also expressed the views of Bitcoin.</p><p>With the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices since last year, more and more people are calling it \"digital gold\".</p><p>Goldman Sachs disagrees with this view, with Jeff Currie, its head of commodities research, stating during an appearance on CNBC's \"Squawk Box Europe\" on Tuesday:</p><p>While both gold and cryptocurrencies are seen as tools to hedge against rising prices, cryptocurrencies are not a substitute for gold, but rather a substitute for copper.</p><p>Gold is generally considered a safe-haven asset, but Bitcoin and copper both appear to be risky assets. Cryptocurrencies are alternatives to risky inflation hedges, not risk-averse inflation hedges.</p><p>Unlike gold prices, which began to decline after reaching new historical highs last year, Bitcoin hit a previous historical high of $18,000 in November 2020, surpassing its previous high of $18,000 in December 2017. After a brief correction, it continued to break through, and finally rose to a high of $64,000 per coin in April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/96db662a-7eb2-4689-a725-d1720ef161a0.png\"/></p><p>As of press time, Bitcoin has fallen below $36,000, down more than 40% from its April high.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>While the Federal Reserve is turning hawkish, Goldman Sachs is once again bullish on gold: an excellent defensive asset.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhile the Federal Reserve is turning hawkish, Goldman Sachs is once again bullish on gold: an excellent defensive asset.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 19:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Gold prices plummeted this week after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly adopted hawkish stances, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>However, they maintained their bullish stance.</p><p>Gold prices fell more than 6% this week, marking their biggest weekly drop since March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/7bfee0f9-fe40-428e-9f7a-b3fd14de302f.png\"/></p><p>Gold prices reached an all-time high of $2,075.47 per ounce on August 7, 2020, surpassing the earlier high of $1,920.3 per ounce reached on September 6, 2011, but have not broken through this high since and have remained below $2,000 per ounce for a long time.</p><p>Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs stated that gold prices will experience an upward reversal in the coming weeks. One of its studies states:</p><p><span>Gold did not experience strong growth under previous inflationary conditions, which may mean that demand for gold is limited, whether as a defensive asset or an inflation hedge.</span></p><p><span>But this is not the case, for two reasons.</span></p><p><span>First, as our interest rate strategists have pointed out, the current 10-year break-even inflation rate appears too low compared to the inflation path predicted by our economists.</span><span>In fact, this means that there will be almost no inflation risk premium in the coming years.</span></p><p><span>Secondly, if the Federal Reserve's short-term inflation expectations come true, rate hike will begin to become an unnecessary obstacle to the global recovery, damaging economic growth expectations and increasing the defensive value of gold.</span></p><p>In addition, regarding the commodities and crude oil markets, Goldman Sachs also stated:</p><p>Commodity prices have recently fallen due to the Federal Reserve's decision to bring forward its rate hike forecast to 2023, presenting a buying opportunity for investors. The bullish argument for commodities is neither about inflation risks nor about the Federal Reserve's forward guidance. Instead, it's about scarcity and strong real-world demand.</p><p>Driven by strong demand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00001\">Changhe</a>Given the lack of elastic supply, we believe the resulting physical scarcity could push Brent crude oil prices to an average of $80 in the third quarter and potentially surge above that level.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs also expressed the views of Bitcoin.</p><p>With the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices since last year, more and more people are calling it \"digital gold\".</p><p>Goldman Sachs disagrees with this view, with Jeff Currie, its head of commodities research, stating during an appearance on CNBC's \"Squawk Box Europe\" on Tuesday:</p><p>While both gold and cryptocurrencies are seen as tools to hedge against rising prices, cryptocurrencies are not a substitute for gold, but rather a substitute for copper.</p><p>Gold is generally considered a safe-haven asset, but Bitcoin and copper both appear to be risky assets. Cryptocurrencies are alternatives to risky inflation hedges, not risk-averse inflation hedges.</p><p>Unlike gold prices, which began to decline after reaching new historical highs last year, Bitcoin hit a previous historical high of $18,000 in November 2020, surpassing its previous high of $18,000 in December 2017. After a brief correction, it continued to break through, and finally rose to a high of $64,000 per coin in April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/96db662a-7eb2-4689-a725-d1720ef161a0.png\"/></p><p>As of press time, Bitcoin has fallen below $36,000, down more than 40% from its April high.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633330\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GS":"高盛","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633330","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144670555","content_text":"本周，美联储意外放鹰后，黄金大跌，但高盛却坚持看多立场不变。\n金价本周累跌超6%，创自从2020年3月以来最大单周跌幅。\n\n金价曾于2020年8月7日创下2075.47美元/盎司的历史最高价，超过更早时于2011年9月6日创下的1920.3美元/盎司，但之后便再未突破这一高点，并长期位于2000美元/盎司价格下方。\n在此之际，高盛却表示未来几周内黄金价格将出现上行逆转。其一份研究称：\n\n在此前的通胀情况下，黄金并未出现强劲增长，这或许意味着无论是作为防御性资产还是通胀对冲，对黄金的需求都有限。\n但事实并不是如此，原因有二。\n首先，正如我们利率策略师指出的，当前的10年盈亏平衡通胀率，与我们的经济学家预测的通胀路径相比显得过低。事实上，这意味着未来几年几乎没有通胀风险溢价。\n其次，如果美联储对短期通胀的预期成为现实，加息将开始成为全球复苏不必要的阻力，损害经济增长预期，并提高黄金的防御性价值。\n\n此外，对于大宗和原油市场，高盛还表示：\n\n由于美联储决定将加息预测提前至2023年，大宗商品价格近期出现了下跌，这对投资者来说是一个买入机会。看涨大宗商品的论点既不是关于通胀风险，也不是关于美联储前瞻指引。而是关于稀缺性和强劲的实际需求。\n出于对强劲的需求增长和缺乏弹性的供应的考虑，我们认为由此造成的实物稀缺可能将推动布伦特原油价格在第三季度达到平均80美元，并可能飙升至该水平之上。\n\n此外，高盛也表达了比特币的看法。\n随着去年以来比特币价格的快速上涨，越来越多人称其为“数字黄金”。\n高盛则不认同该看法，其大宗商品研究主管Jeff Currie在参加本周二的CNBC节目《Squawk Box Europe》节目时表示：\n\n虽然黄金和加密货币都被视作对冲价格上涨的工具，但加密货币不是黄金的替代品，而更像是铜的替代品。\n黄金通常被视作一种避险资产，但比特币和铜都表现为风险资产。加密货币是风险性通胀对冲工具的替代品，而不是风险规避性通胀对冲工具。\n\n不同于金价自去年创下新的历史高位便开始萎靡的情况，比特币在2020年11月创下超过其2017年12月的1.8万美元的上个阶段历史高点后，经过了短暂回调后又持续突破，并最终在今年4月涨至最高6.4万美元/枚的历史高点。\n\n截至本文发稿，比特币跌至3.6万美元下方，较其4月的高点跌超40%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"GS":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SPY":1,"DOG":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"GCmain":1,"NQmain":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DUST":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".DJI":1,"NUGT":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"MGCmain":1,"GLD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4539,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}