GOLD: The Overarching Trend of Gold Remains Bullish
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The past week saw a dramatic tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the global gold market. Gold opened at $4346 on Monday (August 11th), surging to a two-month high near $4450 mid-week. However, profit-taking led to a sharp 1.3% drop on Thursday, and further declines to a weekly low near $4310 on Friday. Just when bears thought they had the upper hand, unexpectedly weak US retail sales data reversed the tide, resulting in a textbook V-shaped reversal for gold prices, ultimately closing at $4375.80, a weekly gain of approximately 0.8%.
The weekly swing of approximately 140 points resulted in a bullish weekly candlestick with a long lower shadow, demonstrating the resilience of the bulls. This was a result of cooling US economic data, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Currently, bullish sentiment is clearly rising, but the future market remains heavily reliant on changes in Fed rate hike expectations. This week, the Fed meeting minutes will be a key focus. Gold continued to rise in Asian trading on Monday (August 17), breaking through 4,400 again and reaching a high of around 4,416.5. It is currently trading around $4,400. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
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Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$
The overarching trend of gold remains bullish, and during the Asian session, the market staged an extremely strong, one-sided rally along the midline. Although it has pulled back somewhat from the high of 4416.50,
on the H4 timeframe, it continues to trade within a very clear ascending channel or a high-level flag consolidation pattern. The lows are continuously rising, indicating that medium-term bullish forces still hold an absolute advantage.
The current 1-hour chart shows short-term consolidation, which is actually building momentum for the next major uptrend on the H4 timeframe. The key short-term support is currently at 4370–75; strategically, we should “favor buying on dips and be cautious about shorting against the trend”!
Last Friday’s Buy strategy can continue to be executed!
XAUUSD Buy: Around 4375, TP: 4430–4440, SL: 4355
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