For the next 30 days, I expect the 10-year yield to stay around 4.7%, with 5% possible if inflation and Treasury supply worsen. The 30-year has already hit a 19-year high, showing how serious the bond-market pressure has become.
The bigger threat to AI stocks is rising yields. AI debt issuance matters, but it is ultimately another channel through which higher financing costs can pressure valuations. Morgan Stanley expects global AI-related debt issuance to approach $570 billion this year.
My view: this is a valuation reset, not necessarily the end of the AI cycle.
@TigerObserver [正经]
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