The key issue is that this selloff isn’t purely about Fed policy. Persistent inflation risks, higher oil prices, massive fiscal deficits, weaker foreign Treasury demand and growing corporate debt supply are all pushing the long end higher.
That makes this a classic “wait for confirmation” moment. If yields eventually stabilize around 5.5%–5.7%, long-duration bonds could offer compelling returns. But if inflation expectations continue rising, buying too early could mean sitting through another painful price decline.
For now, I’d favor short-duration Treasuries and cash, while gradually preparing to extend duration if yields spike further. The best opportunity may come when the market finally starts pricing peak long-term yields—not simply peak Fed rates.
@WallStreet_Tiger [微笑]
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