To The Moon

📈SPDR Gold Shares prices had been in a powerful uptrend through the second half of 2025, rallying from around $300 to a peak near $500 in late Jan 2026. That advance ended with a sharp reversal, and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (O87) spent the following five months in a persistent downtrend, grinding from the highs down to a July low around $360

In more recent price action, top-tier remisier Joey Choy notes that momentum has started to shift. The ETF has recovered off those lows and is now consolidating near the $400 support zone, an area that repeatedly acted as support during the earlier uptrend and has since flipped into resistance

👨‍🏫Read on for an explanation of Joey’s view on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF and where it could be headed from here​​​​​​​:

*Joey’s view does not represent that of Macquarie’s

$GLD US$(O87.SI)$ is one of the world's largest physically backed gold ETFs, offering investors direct exposure to the spot gold price without the need to hold or store the metal. It trades on SGX in US dollars, making it a convenient way for Singapore investors to gain gold exposure alongside their existing equity holdings.

From a broader perspective, GLD had been in a powerful uptrend through the second half of 2025, rallying from around $300 to a peak near $500 in late Jan 2026.

That advance ended with a sharp reversal, and the ETF spent the following five months in a persistent downtrend, grinding from the highs down to a July low around $360.

In more recent price action, momentum has started to shift. The ETF has recovered off those lows and is now consolidating near the $400 support zone, an area that repeatedly acted as support during the earlier uptrend and has since flipped into resistance.

This test is a significant development, as a successful reclaim would signal a transition from the corrective phase back into trend continuation.

Supporting this move is a new 1GT Bullish signal that emerged prior to the breakout early Aug, highlighting where buyers stepped back into the market as prices stabilised.

The rally since that signal has been decisive, with the 20-day moving average (green line) turning up and price holding above it.

Directly overhead sits the 100-day moving average (red line) currently in line with prices effectively acting as another support with the 200-day moving average (blue line) still sloping up above prices and the 100-day moving average.

Looking ahead, a sustained move through that band would put the next key upside level around the $450 resistance in focus.

Beyond that, the $500 area marks the February 2026 high and would be the next major reference point.

For a firm uptrend confirmation, one can look out for the 100-day moving average (red line) to cross back above the 200-day moving average (blue line), aligning with the short-term trend sloping upwards.

On the downside, a failure to hold the $400 area would suggest the rally was a relief bounce within the broader correction, with the $360 as the next support.

​​​​​​​So, how does one take a position in SPDR Gold Shares to ride the uptrend further with lower initial capital outlay?

Investors who wish to be exposed to potential short term upside moves in SPDR Gold Shares can consider using a SPDR Gold Shares call warrant, to magnify the share price return using lesser capital compared to a direct share investment in the underlying share and without the risk of margin calls.

But how will the warrants perform based on this view?

One tool an investor can use to simulate the warrant performance before entering into it is the Warrant Calculator tool on the Macquarie Warrant Singapore website www.warrants.com.sg.

​​​​​​​To use it, one needs to enter the specific warrant of interest. In this case, there is only one structured call warrant $SPDR GLD US MBeCW270120(EXQW.SI)$ and one put warrant $SPDR GLD US MBePW270120(SQGW.SI)$ after selecting the underlying drop down of “SPDR Gold ETF”

Those who are looking to enter into a long or bullish position when the Gold ETF stays above $400 can simulate the price of the call warrant EXQW using this tool. Update the “Underlying Price Entry” to say $404 (price as of 3PM on 17 August), you would see a simulated warrant bid price at $0.064:

Source: Warrant Calculator, https://warrants.com.sg/tools/warrantcalculator/EXQW

To simulate your returns if the Gold ETF went toward $450 from here, move “Underlying Price Target” to $450 – 11.4% higher from the entry price, and move “Date” to a later day.

For example, if you move the date to 30 days later on 16 September, call warrant EXQW will make gains of 68.8% to $0.108, six times more than the Gold ETF’s % move (assuming all pricing factors remain unchanged):

​​​​​​​Keep moving the “Date” slider until you see the simulated potential returns of the warrant matching a similar 11.4% return of the Gold ETF. In this case, in 101 days on 26 November, the warrant will only generate less returns of 10.9% gains – less than that if you bought into the Gold ETF. The maximum holding period for this warrant is therefore, 101 days from the date of purchase on 17 August.

This is because, the warrant holding cost known as time decay, has eroded the geared returns of the warrant. The longer an investor holds onto a warrant, the more time decay will set in. Therefore, the sooner the underlying takes to reach the Target Exit Price, the higher the geared returns a warrant investor will be able to enjoy.

Those who are bearish on the Gold ETF and think they may head lower below $400 toward the next support level of $360 can use the Calculator with the put warrant SPDR GLD US MBePW270120 (SQGW) , by changing the “Underlying Target Price” to $360 to observe the price increase in the put warrant.

It is important to note that gearing offered by warrants work both ways, meaning a warrant will produce magnified losses should their view on the underlying be wrong. The above exercise of using the Warrant Calculator to find out one’s maximum holding period is essential before entering into any warrants, as part of a prudent warrant investors’ risk management strategy.

The sharing on how one can take a position using warrants has been contributed by Macquarie Warrants Singapore who is the issuer of these warrants listed on SGX.

Joey's original article and disclaimers can be found here: https://joeychoy.beehiiv.com/p/spdr-gold-shares-is-450-the-next-stop-for-gold