AI is absorbing enormous amounts of DRAM, HBM and NAND, while new capacity takes years to build. That gives $MU and $SKHY unusual pricing power.
But I wouldn’t confuse “sold out” with “risk-free.” CXMT is already expanding advanced DRAM production, while memory is still a cyclical industry.
For me, the real signal is simple: watch whether strong pricing translates into sustained margins and cash flow. If MU’s September 30 results confirm that, the thesis gets stronger. If demand or pricing disappoints, today’s high expectations could amplify the downside.
Memory isn’t just a capacity story anymore—it’s a test of whether AI demand can permanently reshape the cycle.
@WallStreet_Tiger [思考]
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- fuddie·09-23 19:12HBM demand is the part people still underrate. A GPT-5 scale training run can eat 2-3x the HBM of the prior wave, and inference has barely started showing up in memory numbers.LikeReport
- BarbaraWillard·09-23 19:12That 24 to 30 month buildout lag is what the market still underprices. Supply can stay tight longer, but September margins and cash flow still have to do the heavy liftingLikeReport