Stocks Still in an Uptrend, But Rising Rates Are Taking a Toll
Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:
-
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ remains in a healthy uptrend.
-
(but the equal-weighted S&P500 has seen a major correction)
-
The key driver of pain in the SPXEW is rising rates.
-
The Equity Risk Premium has fallen to generational lows.
-
Small Caps seeing heavily crowded shorts (short squeeze potential?)
Overall, the overarching trend remains up for stocks, but rising rates have inflicted severe pain on rate sensitive sectors. Continue to monitor downside risks for stocks as the cycle progresses, but also upside risk in small caps + other sectors…
1. Happy New Month!
The S&P500 closed September down slightly (-0.5% m/m), but is still up +11.8% YTD (+12.8% including dividends). Zooming out, the index remains above its 10-month moving average and is clearly still in a strong uptrend (this is what a bull market looks like).
2. Equal-Weighted Weighed-Down
however, the equal-weighted S&P500 closed September down -5% m/m, and has seen an almost -7% drawdown off the mid-Aug peak. Breadth has also plunged to the worst levels since the 2025 tariff-tantrum. And there is a very clear reason for this…
Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you.
With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets on edge this week, investors are once again thinking carefully about where to position next. There’s no one-size-fits-all choice in investing — and the same goes for Tiger Merch. This month’s hot picks are in, featuring the Tiger Toiletry Bag, Universal Travel Adapter, Tiger Umbrella and more favourites chosen by fellow Tigers.
Explore the Monthly Hot Picks in Tiger Coin Mall, now 12% OFF for a limited time.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
