To The Moon

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Options on futures are derivatives linked to futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal positioning across expiries and strikes, offering insight into market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance zones. However, they should not be treated as simple bullish or bearish signals.

Today, we analyze changes in large options-on-futures trades and open interest on October 20 versus October 19. This is the latest available dataset and provides insight into positioning and risk appetite.

The latest data show mixed positioning. S&P 500 front-month puts recorded the largest increase in open interest. Nasdaq puts remained dominant, while some longer-dated calls were reduced, indicating a defensive stance across equity indices. In crude oil, the put advantage narrowed as open interest rose on both sides. Gold and silver calls remained dominant, although investors also added longer-dated puts. Higher open interest may reflect hedging, spread trades, or option writing. Therefore, the data are better suited to assessing risk appetite and key price zones than predicting outright market direction.

S&P 500: Strong Put Positioning Signals a Defensive Near-Term Bias

As of October 20, total open interest in S&P 500 futures calls and puts stood at 1.4892 million and 3.3048 million contracts, respectively. Daily volume reached 238,200 calls and 663,100 puts, while open interest increased by 77,300 and 395,200 contracts. Puts led in existing positions, trading volume, and new positions. As a result, the put-to-call open interest ratio rose from 2.06 to 2.22.

Most new positions were concentrated in near-dated puts expiring from October 21 to 23. The October 23 put with a 5,750 strike traded 44,900 contracts and added 44,700 in open interest. Puts with strikes from 6,100 to 6,425 also recorded volumes of 35,000 to 39,100 contracts, with nearly matching increases in open interest. Meanwhile, the October 21 call with an 8,150 strike traded 17,700 contracts and added 17,600 in open interest. Open interest in the 8,050 call fell by about 1,200 contracts.

Recent market developments help explain this positioning. Gains in Eli Lilly and other healthcare heavyweights pushed the S&P 500 healthcare sector to a record high. However, concerns over AI capital spending, financing costs, and earnings delivery continued to weigh on technology stocks. Capital rotated into healthcare, financials, and defensive sectors. This suggests that non-technology heavyweights still support the index, although wider sector dispersion could amplify near-term volatility and encourage defensive positioning.

Large Trade of the Week: October 23 Put at 5,750

The contract traded 44,937 lots and added 44,747 in open interest, the largest increase among the listed contracts. The close match between volume and open interest growth points to substantial new positioning. Meanwhile, the October 21 call at 8,150 added 17,648 contracts, indicating two-way positioning in near-dated options. The overall structure remains defensive. However, open interest changes do not reveal whether positions were bought or written, so they cannot confirm an outright bearish bet. Investors should monitor whether put positioning extends into later expiries. If put additions slow while call open interest continues to rise, the defensive interpretation should be reassessed.

$标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $迷你标准普尔500(.XSP)$ $三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares(UPRO)$ $三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion(SPXL)$ $两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares(SDS)$ $2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares(SSO)$

Nasdaq 100: Puts Remain Dominant as December Call Positions Decline

As of October 20, total open interest in Nasdaq 100 futures calls and puts stood at 78,600 and 121,500 contracts, respectively. Daily volume reached 24,600 calls and 27,100 puts, while open interest increased by 5,700 and 9,700 contracts. Puts led in existing positions, volume, and new positions. The put-to-call open interest ratio edged up from 1.53 to 1.55.

New positions were concentrated in near-dated October contracts. The 27,000 put, QN4V6, traded 451 contracts and added 404 in open interest. The 29,350 and 29,500 puts traded 370 and 508 contracts, while open interest rose by 299 and 271. On the call side, open interest in the 30,000 and 30,100 strikes increased by 156 and 140 contracts.

Meanwhile, the December 31,500 call traded 5,257 contracts but lost 265 in open interest. The December 32,000 call also shed 135 contracts. This points to heavy turnover and reduced longer-dated bullish exposure.

This positioning aligns with greater volatility in technology valuations, given uncertainty over Nvidia’s China business and the financing pressure signaled by falling CoreWeave bond prices. However, open interest changes alone cannot identify trade direction. The current structure suggests a near-term defensive bias. Investors should monitor whether put additions continue and longer-dated call positions recover. If put additions slow and longer-dated call open interest rebounds, the defensive view should be reassessed.

Large Trades in Focus: October Put Additions and December Call Reductions

The October 27,000 put traded 451 contracts and added 404 in open interest, showing a clear increase in near-dated downside exposure. In contrast, the December 31,500 call traded 5,257 contracts but lost 265 in open interest, so heavy volume did not create new positions. Together with increased open interest in near-dated calls, this suggests a shift in positioning across expiries. The short-term bias remains defensive. Any sustained rebound will require both stronger prices and continued growth in call open interest.

$美光科技(MU)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $微软(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$ $苹果(AAPL)$

WTI Crude Oil: Put Dominance Narrows as Two-Way Positioning Continues

As of October 20, total open interest in WTI crude futures calls and puts stood at 1.0296 million and 1.1642 million contracts, respectively. Daily volume reached 123,500 calls and 83,700 puts, while open interest increased by 28,400 and 29,400 contracts. Existing positions remained slightly skewed toward puts, with the put-to-call open interest ratio holding near 1.13. However, call volume was about 1.48 times put volume, indicating much stronger trading activity.

Large trades and position growth were concentrated in December contracts. The $110 call traded 19,000 contracts and added 3,275 in open interest, while the $120 call traded 4,651 and added 2,331. The $86 put traded 3,514 contracts and added 2,723. Across several 2027 expiries, the $70 put also recorded consecutive open interest increases of about 850 to 1,695 contracts.

Meanwhile, the December $100 call traded 8,648 contracts but lost 787 in open interest. The $80 put traded 5,869 but lost 525. The January 2027 $110 call also shed 954 contracts, suggesting that some high-strike positions were being rotated or closed.

Crude oil remains highly sensitive to supply disruptions, demand expectations, and geopolitical risks. This positioning is consistent with expectations of greater two-way volatility, although it cannot confirm whether options were bought or written. Rebound positioning has gained momentum, but the overall stance remains cautious. Investors should watch whether call open interest continues to expand as oil prices rise. If call additions fade and put positions grow again, expectations for a sustained rebound should be lowered.

Large Trades in Focus: December $110 Call and $86 Put Both Add Positions

The December $110 call traded 18,993 contracts and added 3,275 in open interest. The $86 put traded 3,514 contracts and added 2,723. Both contracts showed stronger two-way positioning, although open interest growth alone cannot confirm active buying or a clear directional bet.

$美国原油ETF(USO)$ $马拉松原油(MPC)$ $WTI原油主连 2611(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2611(QMmain)$

Gold: Calls Remain Dominant as Longer-Dated Low-Strike Puts Gain Positions

As of October 20, total open interest in gold futures calls and puts stood at 634,000 and 262,200 contracts, respectively. Daily volume reached 25,193 calls and 14,971 puts, while open interest increased by 6,682 and 3,963 contracts. Calls led in existing positions, volume, and new positions. The call-to-put open interest ratio edged down from 2.43 to 2.42, leaving the overall structure broadly stable.

Large position increases were spread across medium and high-strike calls with different expiries. The December $4,380 and $4,200 calls traded 623 and 769 contracts, while open interest rose by 435 and 416. The January 2027 $5,000 call traded 485 contracts and added 383.

Meanwhile, open interest in the December $5,000 and $5,500 calls fell by 273 and 165 contracts. The January 2027 $4,800 call also lost 263. On the put side, the January 2027 $3,525 contract traded 501 lots and added 474 in open interest. In contrast, near-dated $4,000 and $4,050 puts lost 173 and 112 contracts.

Gold is highly sensitive to interest rates, the US dollar, and safe-haven demand. This structure is consistent with a bullish allocation, but open interest changes alone cannot confirm trade direction or continued upside. Calls remain dominant while risk exposure is being adjusted. Investors should monitor whether gold prices strengthen and call positions continue to expand. If prices weaken and put additions accelerate, the bullish view should be reassessed.

Large Trade of the Week: December 2026 $4,380 Call

Open interest in this contract increased by 435, the largest gain among calls that day. The December $4,200 call also added positions, indicating concentrated exposure in this strike range. The combination of trading volume and higher open interest makes these contracts worth monitoring, although active bullish buying cannot be confirmed without trade-side data. A stronger bullish signal would require higher gold prices and continued position growth at these strikes.

$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2612(MGCmain)$

Silver: Calls Remain Dominant as Near-Dated Positioning Becomes More Active

 As of October 20, total open interest in silver futures calls and puts stood at 69,194 and 31,584 contracts, respectively. Daily volume reached 3,514 calls and 1,908 puts, while open interest increased by 848 and 509 contracts. Calls led in existing positions, volume, and new positions. The call-to-put open interest ratio edged down from 2.20 to 2.19, leaving the overall structure broadly unchanged.

New positions were concentrated in November calls with strikes between $58.50 and $63. The $62.50 call traded 106 contracts and added 71 in open interest. The $58.50 and $59 calls traded 135 and 163 contracts, while open interest rose by 43 and 42.

Meanwhile, the November $58 call traded 92 contracts but lost 30 in open interest. The January 2027 $66 call also lost 24. On the put side, the March 2027 $52 and $58 contracts traded 50 and 40 lots, with matching increases in open interest. The November $57 put traded 155 contracts and added 34.

This structure points to active near-dated upside positioning alongside adjustments to longer-term risk exposure. However, open interest changes alone cannot confirm active buying or selling. Near-dated call positions are growing, while longer-dated puts are also gaining exposure. Investors should monitor whether silver prices strengthen and near-dated call additions continue. If prices weaken and put positions expand further, the bullish view should be tempered.

Large Trade of the Week: November 2026 $62.50 Call

The contract traded 106 lots and added 71 in open interest, the largest increase among the listed calls. Nearby strikes in the same expiry also gained positions, making this area a useful indicator of changes in near-dated exposure. However, the trade remains modest in size. Its significance will depend on continued position growth and stronger silver prices.

$白银主连 2612(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2612(SILmain)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $迷你白银主连 2612(QImain)$ $白银2610(SI2610)$ 

Overall, S&P 500 and Nasdaq put positions increased notably, suggesting stronger demand for downside protection. Crude oil positions grew on both sides, maintaining a two-way structure. Calls remained dominant in gold and silver, although longer-dated put protection also increased. Investors should watch whether these new positions persist. Risk appetite could improve if put positions recede and call additions accelerate. If downside protection continues to grow, markets are likely to remain defensive.