To The Moon

Apple Has Reported, AMD Reports Tonight: Can the iPhone Upgrade Cycle and AI Orders Carry the Next Quarter? What the Numbers Say, and Which One My Sell-Put Gates Will Check

Written Tuesday 3 Nov, SGT. Apple numbers are from Monday's report. AMD reports after tonight's US close.

PART 1: APPLE HAS ALREADY ANSWERED

Apple reported fiscal Q4 results after Monday's close. It was John Ternus's first earnings call as CEO.

The beat:

- Revenue: $114.48 billion, up 12%, against $113.39 billion expected

- EPS: $2.10 against $1.99 expected (excluding a 5-cent tariff refund benefit)

- iPhone: $57.58 billion, up 17%, a record for a September quarter, against $56.54 billion expected

- Services: $31.57 billion, a record

- Mac: $10.79 billion, up from $8.7 billion

- Greater China: up 21%, a quarterly record, though still below what analysts wanted

- Operating cash flow: $28 billion, with $28 billion returned to shareholders

So yes, the iPhone upgrade cycle is real. Ternus told Reuters that Apple still can't meet demand for the iPhone Duo, and he gave no date for when supply will catch up.

The problem: memory costs.

- Gross margin was 47.9%, but that included about one point of tariff refunds that won't recur.

- December quarter gross margin guidance is 45% to 46%.

- Ternus called the memory situation "unprecedented" and said Apple expects memory prices to keep rising beyond the December quarter.

- Mac and iPad will stay supply-constrained in the December quarter, mainly because of memory.

- Services growth guidance of 8% to 9% came in below the roughly 10.7% analysts expected.

The stock closed Monday at $338.32, down 1.83%, then fell another 2.9% after hours to about $328.60.

So, can the upgrade cycle support next quarter's growth? On revenue, yes. Apple guided December quarter revenue up 7% to 10%, which would be its biggest quarter ever. On profit, the upgrade cycle is fighting memory costs, and memory is winning for now. This is the same supercycle we've been tracking for weeks, now seen from the buyer's side.

PART 2: AMD, TONIGHT

AMD reports after the US close tonight, which is about 6 AM Wednesday SGT. It has already had a brutal run into the report:

- Friday: -10.88% to $504.80, after Intel's PC warning

- Monday: -7.52% to $466.84

- That's about 18% lower in two sessions, before AMD has said a word

The bar:

- Consensus: EPS $1.95 on revenue of $13.09 billion

- Company guidance: about $13.0 billion, plus or minus $300 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of about 56%

- Options imply a move of about 8.95%, or roughly $45, in either direction. The last four reactions averaged 11.37%.

Can AMD's AI orders turn into profit and cash? Three things decide it.

1. The AI ramp. Helios and MI450 shipments started in September. Announced commitments include OpenAI (6 GW), Meta (up to 6 GW) and Anthropic (up to 2 GW). Susquehanna (Buy, $650 target) expects a bigger ramp in Q4 and the first half of 2027. Jefferies (Buy, $650) thinks Q4 revenue could reach $17 billion against the Street's $16.3 billion.

2. Margin. CFO Jean Hu has said AI chip margins run slightly below the company average during the ramp. If AMD guides below 56%, that's the cost of growing AI faster. The question is whether the market accepts that trade-off.

3. PCs. Client revenue was $3.1 billion last quarter, about 27% of sales. Intel now expects the PC market to shrink 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 because of memory prices. If AMD's client guidance holds up better than Intel's, it's taking share. If it doesn't, the PC slump is industry-wide.

There's also valuation. Even after the drop, AMD trades at roughly 120 times trailing earnings.

Which is more likely to beat expectations? Apple has already beaten on revenue and EPS but disappointed on margins. For AMD, the bar has dropped a lot: the stock fell 18% in two days, so a solid report plus a firm Q4 data center guide could spark a sharp relief rally. But a soft client guide or a margin cut could extend the selloff. Of the two, AMD has the higher chance of a positive surprise, simply because expectations have fallen so far.

PART 3: HOW I RUN THIS THROUGH MY SELL-PUT GATES

1. AMD tonight: BLOCKED.

I don't sell puts into an earnings report. With a ±9% implied move, that's a coin flip, not premium collection.

2. AMD after tonight: the structure gate PASSES.

At $466.84, AMD is still about 14% above its 200-day moving average of $409.20, even after the selloff. It's below its 50-day ($548.29), but my hard gate is the 200-day. Once the report is out, the next one isn't until around early February, so December expiries will have a clean calendar.

3. The SMA anchor is already known.

$409.20 x 0.98 = about $401. On Wednesday night I'll compare that with the one standard deviation floor from the live post-earnings volatility, take the lower of the two, and adjust so the delta lands between 0.15 and 0.25.

4. Size it before you get excited.

A $400 put ties up $40,000 of cash per contract. AMD is capped at 2% of my account, so one contract needs about $2 million. If that doesn't fit, the trade doesn't happen. A smaller account needs a cheaper name.

5. Apple: earnings done, calendar clean, but still has to pass the gates.

It still needs the 200-day check plus IV Rank of at least 40%, IV Percentile of at least 45%, and implied volatility at least 1.2 times historical volatility on the live chain. Implied volatility usually drops right after a report, which makes the premium thinner.

6. Wait for the volatility crush, then rerun everything.

My plan: let AMD report, let volatility reset, then check all the gates Wednesday night with 30 to 45 day expiries. Exits are set on day one: a 50% take-profit GTC, a stop at 2.5 times premium, and one roll at most.

My verdict

I don't bet on the print. If AMD sells off on the report but holds its 200-day, that's the fear I want to sell into. If it rallies 10% on great guidance, I let it go. Missing a rally costs me nothing.

Your turn: which one do you trust more for next quarter, Apple's iPhone cycle against rising memory costs, or AMD's AI orders against a falling PC market? And would you hold AMD through tonight's report?

This is my personal trading framework, shared for education. It is not investment advice. Options carry significant risk, including assignment and losses larger than the premium collected. Always verify live chain data and confirmed earnings dates before trading.

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