Bull: Rocket is gaining share even in a tough market. Q3 adjusted revenue was $2.57B, adjusted EBITDA $748M and adjusted EPS $0.15 (above the $0.13 estimate), with its highest profit margin in nearly five years despite mortgage rates reaching a three-year high. The Mr. Cooper and Redfin acquisitions created a combined servicing and origination platform with record recapture rates, and management targets about $540M of synergies. If rates fall, refinancing volume and operating leverage could surprise to the upside.
Bear: Q4 revenue guidance of about $2.2B came in roughly 14% below consensus. Earnings are rate-dependent and cyclical, GAAP profit ($709M) is inflated by non-cash servicing-rights marks, and all-stock acquisitions diluted shareholders heavily. Revenue declined about 6.8% a year over five years, and integration could run late or over budget.
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Open | 0.63 2Lot(s) | +3.18% Holding |
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- BlancheElsie·07:220.15 EPS beat matters more here. Near five-year high margin in this rate backdrop says the platform is already working, not just waiting on cutsLikeReport