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2023-03-20

‌[惊讶] ‌

Besides not including rate hike, the Federal Reserve will report on another major event this week.

关键时刻，美联储正盯紧这四个指标。

Besides not including rate hike, the Federal Reserve will report on another major event this week.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on March 22.<b>In addition to announcing whether there will be a rate hike, there will likely be a report on the Federal Reserve's oversight of the banking and financial system.</b></p><p>Research shows that the Federal Reserve's regulatory reports, meeting minutes, and financial condition reports reveal near-real-time stress indicators that the Fed monitored during previous crises, which are related to how policymakers will respond to the current banking crisis.</p><p><b>Here are four indicators related to this banking crisis that could influence the Federal Reserve's final decision:</b></p><p><b>I. Bank Financing Cost Indicators</b></p><p><b>Stock prices are a major focus for the Federal Reserve in assessing banks' funding costs.</b>Local banks face greater pressure than large banks because they are subject to stricter regulations, enjoy better capital and liquidity requirements, and have easier access to capital markets. The pressure on local banks can become a driving force for large banks in times of crisis. Because once small banks show instability, a large amount of deposits will be transferred to large banks, which is why the stocks of leading banks also perform relatively better.</p><p>During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve considered the interest rate spread between 30-day financial and non-financial AA commercial bills as another indicator for measuring bank financing costs.<b>This indicator is particularly important during the financial crisis, as banks' short-term credit costs increase when faced with capital and liquidity shortages.</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the banking crisis, interest rate spreads fluctuated relatively moderately, only widening by 7 basis points after the Credit Suisse crisis, which is still within the normal historical range. The SVB incident did not have a significant impact on them.<b>The cost of 30-day financing for financial companies has not become more expensive.</b></p><p><b>II. Financial System Risk Indicators</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve uses financial market surveillance tools to regulate banks, among which,<b>Large banks are a key focus of regulation</b>。 Page 10 of the Federal Reserve's regulatory and compliance report released in November presents the following two real-time risk indicators.</p><p><b>First, the Federal Reserve obtains the average \"market leverage ratio\" by dividing a bank's market capitalization by the sum of its market capitalization and total liabilities.</b>Pressure on stock prices will naturally lead to a decrease in market leverage.</p><p><b>The second is the average credit default swap (CDS) spread of large banks studied by the Federal Reserve.</b>The spread has risen slightly since the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank. Although the risk signal is red, it has only risen to the level of last October and may not have reached the warning level. However, large banks will undoubtedly benefit from this local bank collapse again.</p><p>Not only large banks, but the entire financial industry is paying close attention to CDS spreads by the Federal Reserve. In 2008, the Fed reviewed 179<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>The CDS spread index.<b>Although it has risen slightly in recent days, the interest rate spread is still very low compared to last year.</b></p><p><b>III. Private Credit Cost Indicators</b></p><p>Even if this credit crisis is due to a temporary liquidity shortage, the financing situation of the entire real economy will be affected.<b>To monitor credit conditions in the real economy, the Federal Reserve will closely monitor the spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury Bond, paying close attention to risk premiums and the broader cost of capital.</b></p><p>Given that corporate bond spreads widened to 35-40 basis points after SVB's collapse, corporate capital costs rose slightly, which will also be included in regulatory considerations.<b>However, it remains to be seen whether the interest rate spread will widen to a warning level, and it may not lead to a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy.</b></p><p><b>IV. Lower Frequency Indicators</b></p><p>In addition to the market-based real-time monitoring indicators mentioned above, the Federal Reserve also considers a range of lower-frequency data, including:<b>Bank senior credit officer surveys, capital adequacy and liquidity indicators based on quarterly results reports and performance, and stress test results.</b>。</p><p>although<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse of Credit Suisse triggered market panic, but based on current research, the possibility of financial risk spillover is unlikely, at least compared to past crises.<b>The Federal Reserve should hold a similar view, expecting the same signal from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March, with the most likely outcome being a 25 basis point rate hike.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Besides not including rate hike, the Federal Reserve will report on another major event this week.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBesides not including rate hike, the Federal Reserve will report on another major event this week.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-20 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>At this critical moment, the Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on these four indicators. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on March 22.<b>In addition to announcing whether there will be a rate hike, there will likely be a report on the Federal Reserve's oversight of the banking and financial system.</b></p><p>Research shows that the Federal Reserve's regulatory reports, meeting minutes, and financial condition reports reveal near-real-time stress indicators that the Fed monitored during previous crises, which are related to how policymakers will respond to the current banking crisis.</p><p><b>Here are four indicators related to this banking crisis that could influence the Federal Reserve's final decision:</b></p><p><b>I. Bank Financing Cost Indicators</b></p><p><b>Stock prices are a major focus for the Federal Reserve in assessing banks' funding costs.</b>Local banks face greater pressure than large banks because they are subject to stricter regulations, enjoy better capital and liquidity requirements, and have easier access to capital markets. The pressure on local banks can become a driving force for large banks in times of crisis. Because once small banks show instability, a large amount of deposits will be transferred to large banks, which is why the stocks of leading banks also perform relatively better.</p><p>During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve considered the interest rate spread between 30-day financial and non-financial AA commercial bills as another indicator for measuring bank financing costs.<b>This indicator is particularly important during the financial crisis, as banks' short-term credit costs increase when faced with capital and liquidity shortages.</b></p><p>Following the outbreak of the banking crisis, interest rate spreads fluctuated relatively moderately, only widening by 7 basis points after the Credit Suisse crisis, which is still within the normal historical range. The SVB incident did not have a significant impact on them.<b>The cost of 30-day financing for financial companies has not become more expensive.</b></p><p><b>II. Financial System Risk Indicators</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve uses financial market surveillance tools to regulate banks, among which,<b>Large banks are a key focus of regulation</b>。 Page 10 of the Federal Reserve's regulatory and compliance report released in November presents the following two real-time risk indicators.</p><p><b>First, the Federal Reserve obtains the average \"market leverage ratio\" by dividing a bank's market capitalization by the sum of its market capitalization and total liabilities.</b>Pressure on stock prices will naturally lead to a decrease in market leverage.</p><p><b>The second is the average credit default swap (CDS) spread of large banks studied by the Federal Reserve.</b>The spread has risen slightly since the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank. Although the risk signal is red, it has only risen to the level of last October and may not have reached the warning level. However, large banks will undoubtedly benefit from this local bank collapse again.</p><p>Not only large banks, but the entire financial industry is paying close attention to CDS spreads by the Federal Reserve. In 2008, the Fed reviewed 179<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>The CDS spread index.<b>Although it has risen slightly in recent days, the interest rate spread is still very low compared to last year.</b></p><p><b>III. Private Credit Cost Indicators</b></p><p>Even if this credit crisis is due to a temporary liquidity shortage, the financing situation of the entire real economy will be affected.<b>To monitor credit conditions in the real economy, the Federal Reserve will closely monitor the spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury Bond, paying close attention to risk premiums and the broader cost of capital.</b></p><p>Given that corporate bond spreads widened to 35-40 basis points after SVB's collapse, corporate capital costs rose slightly, which will also be included in regulatory considerations.<b>However, it remains to be seen whether the interest rate spread will widen to a warning level, and it may not lead to a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy.</b></p><p><b>IV. Lower Frequency Indicators</b></p><p>In addition to the market-based real-time monitoring indicators mentioned above, the Federal Reserve also considers a range of lower-frequency data, including:<b>Bank senior credit officer surveys, capital adequacy and liquidity indicators based on quarterly results reports and performance, and stress test results.</b>。</p><p>although<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The collapse of Credit Suisse triggered market panic, but based on current research, the possibility of financial risk spillover is unlikely, at least compared to past crises.<b>The Federal Reserve should hold a similar view, expecting the same signal from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March, with the most likely outcome being a 25 basis point rate hike.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=108658&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0209981cdff7fe62e7a2c1dc992cd7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=108658&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2320157725","content_text":"关键时刻，美联储正盯紧这四个指标。美联储主席鲍威尔将于3月22日召开新闻发布会，除了宣布是否加息外，很可能还会报告美联储对银行业和金融体系的监管状况。据研究显示，通过美联储的监管报告、会议记录和金融状况报告，可以看到美联储在先前危机中监控的近实时压力指标，关系到决策者将如何应对当前的银行业危机。以下是四个与此次银行危机相关且可能影响美联储最终决策的指标：一、 银行融资成本指标在评估银行的资金成本方面，股价是美联储的一大关注点。与大型银行相比，地方银行面临的压力更大，因为大型银行受到更严格的监管，享受更好的资本和流动性的要求，而且更容易进入资本市场。地方银行的压力在危机时又会成为大型银行的动力。因为小银行一旦表现出不稳定性，大量存款就会转移流入大银行，这也是为什么头部银行的股票相对表现也会更好。2008年的金融危机中，美联储就曾考虑30天金融和非金融AA级商业票据的利差，将其作为衡量银行融资成本的另一个指标。这一指标在金融危机中尤为重要，因为面临资本和流动性短缺时，银行短期信贷成本加大。此次银行危机爆发后，利差波动相对温和，仅于瑞信危机后扩大了7个基点，仍处于正常的历史区间内，SVB事件对其影响并不大。金融公司的30天融资成本并未变得更高昂。二、金融系统风险指标美联储使用金融市场监控工具监管银行，而其中，大型银行是监管重点。11月美联储公布的监管和规范报告的第十页展示了下列两个实时风险指标。第一是美联储通过将银行市值除以市值与总负债之和得到平均“市场杠杆率”。股价的压力自然会导致市场杠杆率有所下降。第二是美联储研究的大型银行的信用违约掉期（CDS）平均利差，自SVB和签名银行倒闭以来，该利差略有上升。尽管风险信号亮红，但只是上升至去年10月的水平，可能并未触及警戒水平。不过大型银行无疑会再次从此次地方银行爆雷事件中受益。不仅仅是大型银行，整个金融行业的CDS利差都备受美联储关注。2008年，美联储审查了179家金融机构的CDS利差指数。虽然最近几天略有上升，但与去年相比，利差仍然很低。三、民间信贷成本指标即便此次信贷危机是由于暂时的流动性紧张，整个实体经济的融资状况也将受到影响。为了监控实体经济的信贷状况，美联储将紧盯企业债与美国国债的利差，以密切关注风险溢价和更广泛的资本成本。鉴于SVB倒闭之后，企业债券利差扩幅增至35-40个基点，企业资本成本略微上浮，这也将纳入监管考虑之一。不过，利差是否扩至触及警戒水平还有待考量，或不会导致美联储政策转向。四、较低频的指标除了上述基于市场的实时监控指标之外，美联储还考虑了一系列较低频数据，包括：银行高级信贷员调查、基于季度业绩报告和业绩的资本充足率和流动性指标、以及压力测试结果。虽然硅谷银行和瑞信爆雷引发了市场恐慌情绪，不过就目前研究来看，金融风险外溢可能性不大，至少相比于过去的危机概率很小。美联储应持类似观点，预计3月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议释放出相同信号，最有可能的结果是加息25个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":1,"NQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":1,"PSQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6078,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}