To The Moon

$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$   $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   $Micron Technology(MU)$   The Federal Reserve paused. Rates remain: 3.75%-4.00% The obvious trade would be: Fed stops hiking → yields fall → buy growth → everything rallies. I think that is too simplistic. Because buried inside the Fed decision was a much more important signal. The vote was: 10-2. And BOTH dissenters

Core PCE inflation is 3.1%. In the five cycles since 1990, the Fed has not once started cutting with core PCE inflation at 3% or above. At the same time, US debt is nearly back to 1946 levels. Those two facts pull against each other. Here is what the long record says about each, and a scorecard you can run on any indebted government. 1. THE 3% LINE I looked at the six major cutting cycles from 1989 to 2024, measuring core PCE inflation in the month before each first cut. Since 1990, the highest reading at a first cut was 2.9%, in Sep 2024. The last first cut with core PCE inflation at 3% or more was Jun 1989, at 4.4%. Today core PCE inflation is 3.1%, and the last hike was only 1.5 months ago. Across the six major cutting cycles from 1989 to 2024, the Fed held at its peak for a median 7.5

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ announced earnings yesterday after market close, followed by the fed decision to hold rate. Google got absolutely smashed on market open, posting the biggest drop in one day in it’s history of existence. The debt that AI spending accumulated is put on the pedestal and scrutanized again. The “feel good” feeling and renewed optimism in tech because of news that Anthropic IPO is impending basically got wiped out in less than a day time. This proves that even mega caps are struggling to justify the debt they are accumulatin

$Strategy(MSTR)$   $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   $Micron Technology(MU)$    The Federal Reserve just held rates at 3.75%-4.00%. Stocks finished higher. And the easy conclusion is: Fed stopped hiking = buy risk assets. I think that is too simplistic. This was not a dovish pivot. It was closer to a hawkish pause. Economic growth remains strong. Inflation remains elevated. And two policymakers actually wanted another 25bp hike. So I am not positioning for: “Cheap money is back.” I am positioning for something more interesting: “The cost of money may have stopped getting worse.” Those a

$iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$   $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   $Micron Technology(MU)$   The Federal Reserve paused. Rates remain: 3.75%-4.00% The obvious trade would be: Fed stops hiking → yields fall → buy growth → everything rallies. I think that is too simplistic. Because buried inside the Fed decision was a much more important signal. The vote was: 10-2. And BOTH dissenters

Core PCE inflation is 3.1%. In the five cycles since 1990, the Fed has not once started cutting with core PCE inflation at 3% or above. At the same time, US debt is nearly back to 1946 levels. Those two facts pull against each other. Here is what the long record says about each, and a scorecard you can run on any indebted government. 1. THE 3% LINE I looked at the six major cutting cycles from 1989 to 2024, measuring core PCE inflation in the month before each first cut. Since 1990, the highest reading at a first cut was 2.9%, in Sep 2024. The last first cut with core PCE inflation at 3% or more was Jun 1989, at 4.4%. Today core PCE inflation is 3.1%, and the last hike was only 1.5 months ago. Across the six major cutting cycles from 1989 to 2024, the Fed held at its peak for a median 7.5

$Strategy(MSTR)$   $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   $Micron Technology(MU)$    The Federal Reserve just held rates at 3.75%-4.00%. Stocks finished higher. And the easy conclusion is: Fed stopped hiking = buy risk assets. I think that is too simplistic. This was not a dovish pivot. It was closer to a hawkish pause. Economic growth remains strong. Inflation remains elevated. And two policymakers actually wanted another 25bp hike. So I am not positioning for: “Cheap money is back.” I am positioning for something more interesting: “The cost of money may have stopped getting worse.” Those a

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ So $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ announced earnings yesterday after market close, followed by the fed decision to hold rate. Google got absolutely smashed on market open, posting the biggest drop in one day in it’s history of existence. The debt that AI spending accumulated is put on the pedestal and scrutanized again. The “feel good” feeling and renewed optimism in tech because of news that Anthropic IPO is impending basically got wiped out in less than a day time. This proves that even mega caps are struggling to justify the debt they are accumulatin