Markets see roughly a 40% prob-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

CPI and PPI Both Cool — How Much Further Can U.S. Stocks Run?

S&P 500 +0.65% to a record 7,798.99, through 7,800 intraday; Nasdaq +0.81%, QQQ +1.16%, Dow +0.13%. Soft inflation did it: July CPI 3.4% YoY and 0.1% MoM, PPI at 4.2% against 4.9% expected and 5.5% prior, pushing the odds of an extended Fed pause higher. Burry disclosed a bigger QQQ put position, positioning for "a larger leg down," while desks warned against chasing into the next earnings cycle. Add to tech, rotate into gold and defensives, or wait for earnings?

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