Markets Rebound Day After Rate Hike — What's Driving the Rally?

Stocks took back Wednesday's Fed day and more: QQQ +1.73% to $716.92, SPY +1.13% to $762.60, the S&P 500 +1.14% to 7,637.76, against Wednesday's 0.45% decline. The lift came from outside the Fed. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell, which says the labor market is not cooling the way the rate path assumes, and oil kept sliding, easing inflation pressure. Yields fell and megacap tech led. The uncertainty everyone waited on is behind the market now. But the dot plot still points to one more hike this year, and only the hike already delivered is in the price. What is the market betting on?

avatarLanceljx
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A. Treasury yields keep falling. The post-Fed rally looks encouraging, especially with semiconductors leading, but I think yields are the key confirmation signal. If the 10-year can move sustainably below 5%, valuation pressure on growth and tech stocks should ease and give the rally more room. For now, I see this more as a rebound that still needs confirmation rather than the start of a clear new rally. Oil and the Fed remain important because either could push yields higher again.
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avatarhighhand
10:47
C. everything else is news used to justify stock market movement
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avatarDaveths
10:20
Tiger Brokers just sent me a gold brick for 2026. My investment thesis is paying off in more ways than one 😏🥇 #TigerBrokers
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avatarProsperousG
01:50
Still bullish overall. JH and MZ continues to push the AI and chip narrative.
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avatarSuccess88
09-18 20:12
Expected should be ok. Actually I like interest rate high a bit
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avatarTiger 123
09-18 19:58
C. 💻 Tech and semiconductors stay strong Brent fell 2.7% to $105.83 after Saudi Arabia began moving more crude through Oman, partially relieving the immediate supply squeeze. Hormuz traffic, however, remains extremely depressed. The post-Fed market is stabilising: global equities rebounded as Treasury yields retreated and Brent eased to $104.82, although both borrowing costs and energy remain restrictive. The important investment message is that the macro shock has eased slightly,e no hard evidence of AI infrastructure demand rolling over. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ just reported perhaps the strongest confirmation: Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was +221% YoY and +54% QoQ, with Q4 AI semiconductor revenue guided to +236% YoY. Q3 FCF was $13.7B, or 46% of r
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avatar吉3186
09-18 19:54
For my view: C. Tech & semiconductors stay strong I see this as more likely a short-term rebound first, not yet proof of a new strong rally. Why? 10-year yield below 5% → helps growth stocks. Oil falling → reduces inflation pressure. AI/chips strong → brings investors back to NVDA, AMD, MU, INTC. But the Fed is still hawkish, with rates at 3.75%–4.00%. If the 10-year yield goes back above 5%, tech stocks could face pressure again. What I would watch: Yield ↓ + Oil ↓ + AI earnings ↑ = rally has a better chance to continue. If only tech rebounds for a few days while yields rise again, it may be just a relief rally. Bottom line:  I would not chase aggressively yet. Watch Treasury yields and AI/chip strength first.
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avatar苏36
09-18 18:29
A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling I’d pick A — but the deeper story is not that the Fed suddenly turned dovish. The Fed just raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, while signaling inflation remains elevated. Thursday’s rally was more about financial conditions. When the 10-year yield slipped back below 5%, the discount-rate pressure on long-duration tech stocks eased. Falling oil added another layer of relief by reducing inflation concerns. That explains why semiconductors led the rebound: when yields fall, high-growth companies with strong earnings expectations can re-rate quickly. The real test now is whether the 10-year can stay below 5%. If yields rise again, Thursday’s relief rally could quickly face another valuation squeeze. My vote: A — yields are the key variable to watch.
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avatarKentzw
09-18 18:07
A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling. For me, the bond market is the key signal. If yields continue to ease, that could support valuations and give growth stocks more room to run—even with the Fed still sounding relatively hawkish.
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avatarD1ane
09-18 17:52
I’d pick A — falling Treasury yields. If yields keep easing, that could give growth and tech stocks more breathing room even with the Fed staying cautious.
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avatarWallStreet_Tiger
09-18 17:50

Stocks Rally After Fed Hike as S&P 500, Nasdaq Post Best Day in Six Weeks

Wall Street staged a sharp rebound on September 17, just one day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 1.14% to 7,637.76, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite jumped 1.69% to 26,418.30, giving both indexes their strongest session in roughly six weeks. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.61% to 51,778.04, while the Russell 2000 added about 0.6%. The rebound came despite the Fed raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and signaling that more tightening could follow. Instead, investors found relief in two developments: T
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Stocks Rally After Fed Hike as S&P 500, Nasdaq Post Best Day in Six Weeks
avatarKentzw
09-18 16:26
Interesting disconnect: Arc gets major institutional names involved, yet the stock still sells off. That suggests the market may be demanding more than partnerships — actual adoption, transaction growth and earnings diversification could be the next proof points.
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avatarKentzw
09-18 16:10
I’m watching C — higher for longer. Even if we don’t see another hike soon, rates staying elevated can still put pressure on valuations and keep volatility high. For me, the key is whether inflation cools enough to give the Fed room to ease without reigniting price pressures.
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avatarKentzw
09-18 13:59
🔥 FED HIKED. STOCKS DIDN’T CARE. That’s what caught my attention Thursday. The Fed just raised rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, with policymakers still signalling another hike could come this year. Yet stocks ripped higher: 🚀 Nasdaq +1.69% 📈 S&P 500 +1.14% 📉 10Y Treasury yield back to ~4.93% 🛢️ Brent crude ~1% lower And jobless claims came in at just 196K, pointing to continued labour-market resilience.  So what is the market actually saying? Maybe the trade isn’t “Fed is dovish.” Maybe it’s: “As long as oil and long-term yields keep coming down, investors can look through the hike.” But here’s the catch 👀 Markets were still pricing about a 53% chance of another October hike on Thursday.  Is this the start of a bigger risk-on move, or are investors getting too comfortable with the Fed’s ha
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avatarD1ane
09-18 13:44

#🔥 FED HIKED. STOCKS RALLIED. WHAT IS THE MARKET SEEING?

The Fed just raised rates. And the market basically said: “Okay… now what?” 👀 Thursday delivered a powerful rebound: 📈 Nasdaq-100 +1.73% 📈 S&P 500 +1.14% 📈 SPY +1.13% 📈 QQQ +1.73% The S&P 500 recovered Wednesday’s Fed-day decline and closed at 7,637.76, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.69%.  But the interesting part wasn’t the Fed. 🛢️ OIL FELL Brent dropped to around $104.82, easing some of the inflation pressure that had been pushing yields higher.  📉 YIELDS FELL The 10-year Treasury yield dropped back below 5%, ending around 4.93% after briefly crossing 5% following Wednesday’s decision.  👷 JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL Initial claims dropped to 196,000, below expectations of roughly 207,000. That creates an interesting combination: Stronger labour data + lower oil + lower yields = a much easi
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#🔥 FED HIKED. STOCKS RALLIED. WHAT IS THE MARKET SEEING?
avatarLanceljx
09-18 13:08
I’m voting C. Whether the Fed hikes once more matters less to me than how long rates stay elevated. If “higher for longer” becomes firmly priced in, I’d watch Treasuries most closely. Long yields near 5% affect almost everything else: equity valuations, borrowing costs, the dollar and even gold’s opportunity cost. Stocks can still rally if earnings and AI growth remain strong, as we saw after the September hike. But persistently high long-term yields would keep pressure on expensive growth stocks. So for me: watch the bond market first, then see how equities react.
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avatarLanceljx
09-18 13:02
I think the Senate setback is still the main overhang, but not the whole story. Arc launching with BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard and DTCC is meaningful for Circle’s long-term infrastructure story, while higher rates can support its huge reserve-income business. Yet neither immediately solves what the market wants: regulatory clarity and diversification away from interest income. The interesting part is that the GENIUS Act framework for stablecoins still exists, so Tuesday did not break Circle’s core business. CRCL may simply be getting repriced for regulatory uncertainty plus its heavy dependence on reserve income. I’m watching whether Arc can turn those big institutional names into actual usage and revenue.
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avatarLanceljx
09-18 12:58
I think the market is betting that the Fed can tighten without breaking the economy. Jobless claims remain strong, while falling oil and Treasury yields are easing inflation and valuation pressure. Tech benefits most if long yields stay contained. The risk is that this becomes a “good news is bad news” trade again. A resilient labour market gives the Fed room to hike further, and the dot plot still points to another hike this year. For now, investors seem more comfortable with higher rates as long as growth holds and oil keeps cooling.
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avatarTiger_comments
09-18 11:37

Japan Hikes Rates: Is the Cheap-Yen Era Ending?

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. The move passed by a 7-2 vote and was broadly expected by markets. The bigger question now is not the 1.25% level itself, but how far the BOJ is prepared to go from here. This matters far beyond Japan. For years, the yen has been one of the world’s cheapest funding currencies. Investors could borrow at very low Japanese rates and move that capital into higher-yielding assets elsewhere — U.S. stocks, bonds, emerging-market currencies and other risk assets. That is the basic logic behind the yen carry trade. As Japanese rates rise, that trade becomes less attractive. If the yen also strengthens, investors face both higher funding costs and FX losses. That is why every BOJ tightening cycle
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Japan Hikes Rates: Is the Cheap-Yen Era Ending?
avatarCL Leong
09-18 10:42
FED has raised 25 BP (0.25 % interest rates) and projected 1 more interest rates hike by this year in higher interest environment there will be slower in borrowing because the borrowing cost is getting more expensive, we will review the earnings of companies in the next Quarterly results Rates hike have to happen according toe FED in order to curb inflation. But it is also great that it has raised the rates, market is more stable knowing what to expect the next few months, which is more expensive interest rate going into 2027 For now , look for strong cash flow companies or companies that can generate huge cash flow and low debt , hint hint $G...., $M....
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