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08-01

The 3.3% QQQ rebound catalyzed by strong Microsoft earnings and cooling June core PCE at 3.3% demonstrates that resilient fundamental AI revenue and solid tech balance sheets can snap losing streaks and provide a strong market floor. However, with market skepticism toward Fed policy remaining high until concrete rate cuts materialize, and August historically bringing seasonal light volume volatility, this rally is unlikely to be a smooth upward march. Investors should view this as an earnings driven relief bounce rather than a full structural regime shift, using short term strength to stay selective and keep dry powder ready for potential late summer pullbacks.

QQQ Gains 1.8% — Did Iran Talks Drive the Dow to a Record High?
QQQ rose 1.76% Monday while the S&P 500 gained 1.48% and SPY advanced 1.42%, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high driven by a combination of Mag 7 strength and declining oil prices. The rally was fueled by optimism around Iran negotiations alongside risk appetite ignited by Trump's commentary. However, the semiconductor ETF just posted its worst single month since 2002, and some institutions are warning this may be a dead-cat bounce. With indexes at record highs while chips remain in the deep end, is this rally built on solid ground?
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