SpaceX's First Earnings: AI Business Is Almost Free

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Value vs. Near-Term Supply Shock

1. Long-term bull case unchanged, but short-term price under four layers of pressure

① tactical concerns over the upcoming lock-up expiry;

② AI business uncertainty;

③ potential Tesla merger complexity;

④ lower-than-expected passive index buying.

As the lock-up expiry passes, the stock is expected to stabilize at some level.

2. Valuation: SOTP stress test suggests AI business is nearly free

At the current price of approximately $108/share (~$1.4 trillion valuation), a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) stress test suggests that just the Space + Connectivity segments alone already support the bulk of the value:

• Space, benchmarked against Blue Origin, is valued at roughly $390–650 billion;

• Connectivity is conservatively valued at over $748 billion;

• The midpoint of the two combined is about $1.35 trillion — roughly in line with the current market cap.

This means the market has assigned almost zero valuation to the AI business (which is expected to approach 2 GW of AI compute capacity by year-end). At this price, the risk-reward profile is attractive.

II. Volatility Estimates and Key Levels

Based on the current price of ~108 and IV of approximately 120%, this week's (expiring 8/7) implied move is approximately ±16.8%, corresponding to a range of roughly 90–127.

Combined with options data:

• Downside support: 105/110 → 100 (massive Put wall, defining floor), with a break below 100 targeting 95.

• Upside resistance: 120 (max pain) → 125 → 130 (large Call wall).

• On 8/6, $116 billion in locked-up shares will become eligible for sale — just two days after earnings and falling within this week's expiration window. This represents a massive new supply overhang that could cap any rebound, or even trigger selling, tilting the risk-reward balance decisively to the downside.

III. Unusual Block Trade Analysis

• Range rent collection combo: Sold the 8/21-expiry 120 Call$SPCX 20260821 120.0 CALL$ + sold the 105 Put $SPCX 20260821 105.0 PUT$ + bought the 90 Put $SPCX 20260821 90.0 PUT$ (9,874 contracts each). This is a short Call + Bull Put Spread (sell 105 / buy 90), betting on the stock oscillating in the ~105–120 range through August, with downside risk capped at 90 — a neutral range-bound premium-collection structure.

• 330 Call massive volume (suspect): Buy-side opening of 280,000 contracts of the 8/7-expiry 330 Call $SPCX 20260807 330.0 CALL$ (+188% OTM). However, 330 Call openings of over 100,000 contracts appear every week — it's highly likely these are sells that have been misclassified as buys by the system, and should not be taken lightly as a bullish signal.

• Longer-term bearish: Bought the 11/20-expiry 110 Put$SPCX 20261120 110.0 PUT$ , 3,000 contracts, notional $5.847 million — a medium-term downside bet/hedge.

• Summary: Overall block trades point toward range-bound oscillation with downside protection, consistent with the view of lock-up pressure capping upside.

IV. Three Scenarios and Corresponding Strategies (Illustrative, Not Recommendations)

Scenario 1: Range-bound oscillation (90–120)

Earnings in line, no major surprises. IV collapses sharply from 120% (IV crush). This would normally be a golden scenario for sellers — but the 8/6 lock-up expiry tilts downside risk significantly higher:

• Consider an Iron Condor / Bull Put Spread: Sell Puts below 100$SPCX 20260807 95.0 PUT$  and sell Calls above 125–130$SPCX 20260807 170.0 CALL$, and be sure to cap both ends with long legs (the 120 Call / 105 Put / 90 Put combo above is a template).

• ⚠️ With IV at 120% + lock-up expiry + negative Gamma, absolutely do not sell naked; keep positions small, and long-leg protection is a must.

Scenario 2: Breaks below 90 (lackluster earnings / lock-up selling pressure dominates)

Breaks below the 100 massive Put wall, with negative Gamma accelerating the move:

• For trend followers: Consider a Bear Put Spread, e.g., buy 100$SPCX 20260807 100.0 PUT$ / sell 90$SPCX 20260807 90.0 PUT$  , to control costs while shorting the downside.

• Don't catch the falling knife: lock-up supply shocks are difficult to predict. Wait for the lock-up to be digested, for the stock to stabilize, and for IV to subside — then sell Puts in staggered lots at strong support levels (such as 90 or lower) to position for long-term value.

• ⚠️ This is a non-trivial downside scenario for this week.

Scenario 3: Breaks above 120 (strong earnings beat + lock-up digested + government AI deal catalyst)

Would require strong positive catalysts + sustained sentiment (Musk's bullish comments) to follow through:

• Consider a Bull Call Spread, e.g., buy 120 / sell 130 (130 is a major Call wall — selling there collects premium).

• More conservatively: wait for a confirmed breakout above 120 that holds (especially after weathering the 8/6 lock-up expiry) before following the trend, to avoid false breakouts.

• 130 is a hard ceiling; the 330 Call is noise — don't treat it as a target.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is an observational analysis of public options data and a strategy illustration, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. SPCX's first earnings report + massive 8/6 lock-up expiry + negative Gamma + IV of 120% — multiple layers of uncertainty are stacked. Any price level is probabilistic. Investing involves risk; options are derivative products. In this environment, naked buying and selling carry exceptionally high risk.