I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Value vs. Near-Term Supply Shock 1. Long-term bull case unchanged, but short-term price under four layers of pressure ① tactical concerns over the upcoming lock-up expiry; ② AI business uncertainty; ③ potential Tesla merger complexity; ④ lower-than-expected passive index buying. As the lock-up expiry passes, the stock is expected to stabilize at some level. 2. Valuation: SOTP stress test suggests AI business is nearly free At the current price of approximately $108/share (~$1.4 trillion valuation), a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) stress test suggests that just the Space + Connectivity segments alone already support the bulk of the value: Space, benchmarked against Blue Origin, is valued at roughly $390–650 billion; Connectivity is conservatively valued at over $748 bil

I. Fundamentals Citi maintains a Buy rating, naming AMD its top growth semiconductor pick for the second half of 2026. Q2 revenue is expected at $11.3 billion / EPS $1.66, and Q3 revenue at $14.0 billion / EPS $2.28 — both above consensus, driven primarily by upside in server CPUs and AI GPUs. Data center sales for 2026 are projected at $33.7 billion (+103% YoY). Meta has emerged as a key new customer (custom MI450, six-year gigawatt-scale deal with ~$15 billion revenue per GW). AI sales are expected to reach $33 billion in 2027 and $50.8 billion in 2028. TAM has been significantly revised upward: AI accelerators to $1.4 trillion by 2030, data center CPUs to $220 billion (both with CAGRs exceeding 45%). Risk: The stock is already fully priced, with capacity sold out, limiting near-term ups

Noteworthy Points 1. AMD and SPCX Report Earnings After the Close on 8/4 (Tuesday) Given that both ARM and INTC delivered earnings beats, AMD, as the leading competitor in the same space, is unlikely to post numbers inferior to those two. Furthermore, AMD's post-earnings price movement will likely have a knock-on effect on ARM and INTC (sector-linked co-movement). 2. SPCX: High Growth Potential, But Two Near-Term Wildcards While SPCX possesses extremely high growth potential, two factors warrant attention: On 8/6 (two trading days after earnings), $116 billion in locked-up shares will become eligible for sale — the potential selling pressure should not be overlooked; On 8/3, Elon Musk echoed a follower's view on X that "this is a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity" — a bullish sentiment

I. Spending + Debt Issuance + Cash Flow Risks For this earnings report, Amazon faces the risk of upward revisions to capital expenditures or operating cash flow falling short of expectations. Competition for retail market share remains intense, which could further pressure retail margins. Amazon commands a significant share of the credit market, coupled with persistent oversupply from ongoing bond issuance — its credit performance is expected to lag behind the sector. Amazon is projected to add another $25–35 billion in debt by the end of 2026. Even the bond market is pricing in risks from Amazon's debt issuance and spending — this originates from the same valuation-killing dynamic seen with META and GOOGL. The make-or-break factor on the equity side is whether AWS growth can justify these

I. Core Perspective: Apple's Key Factor Is Not Capex, but Expectation Realization Unlike MSFT / META / GOOGL, Apple is not a story of heavy AI spending and compressed free cash flow — it is a cash cow by nature. Therefore, for this earnings report, the specific numbers are not the most critical factor. The key question is: Apple has already risen 16.88% this month — have the good news already been priced into the stock? The current price sits at approximately 32x FY27 P/E, approaching valuation peaks. That is the true variable that will determine post-earnings price direction. June quarter iPhone likely beat slightly, but September quarter gross margin guidance may be on the low side, with gross margins expected around 46.8% (consensus 47.4%). Services growth faces headwinds, with the App

I. Fundamentals: Revenue and EPS Expected to Beat Consensus Q2 results are expected to beat consensus on both revenue and EPS, with additional upside to EPS driven by the cost-cutting effect of a 10% headcount reduction in May and a 49% month-over-month decline in job postings during Q2. AI integration + external compute sales are emerging as new growth drivers. Based on rumors that Meta may reach a compute leasing agreement with Anthropic, the market has priced in an additional $5 billion in AI compute revenue expectations by 2027. The bull case is well-rounded (stable advertising + AI monetization + cost reduction + reasonable valuation). However, like Microsoft and Google, Meta is one of the heaviest capex spenders among tech giants — with both AI infrastructure and Reality Labs burning

I. Fundamentals: AI Execution Remains the Core Debate Microsoft reports Q4 FY26 results after the close on July 29. Market focus centers on three points: Azure growth following new capacity rollouts, the pressure of capital expenditures on margins and free cash flow, and M365 Copilot adoption rates along with broader AI monetization capability. Azure year-over-year growth is the key metric to monitor, with company guidance at 39–40%. FY26 Q4 capital expenditures (including leases) are expected to reach $42 billion, up 32% quarter-over-quarter and 74% year-over-year, compressing free cash flow from $25.5 billion last quarter to $14.4 billion. M365 Copilot added 5 million paid seats in FY26 Q3, bringing the total to 20 million, with AI annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $37 billion, up

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Visibility Improves, Valuation Attractive SK Hynix is signing more amended long-term agreements with hyperscale data center customers, covering both DDR5 and NAND. Contract terms exceed five years, with approximately 60–70% of expected volume/pricing already locked in, significantly boosting future earnings visibility — this serves as micro-level confirmation of the large-capex-backed memory storage thesis. This earnings report is expected to deliver unprecedented operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won. Yet, with such strong expectations, the stock has still plunged dramatically, indicating that near-term market sentiment has completely broken down. II. Volatility Estimates and Scenarios Monday's pre-market reference price was 154.57, with implied movement o

📊 Noteworthy Points Market Main Theme: Capex Concerns Have Not Yet Been Fully Priced In The AI narrative is still present, but the market has begun to question the monetization ability of massive capex, putting pressure on valuations. The widespread decline following last week's earnings reports from several tech giants suggests that the valuation-killing logic of "full expectations + capex concerns" has not yet run its course. Earnings from similar tech stocks this week (META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN) are likely to remain under pressure, with the prevailing direction still leaning toward Sell Call. Watch Whether Post-Earnings Pullback Stocks Break Below Forecast Ranges Tesla, Google, and INTC have already dropped significantly after earnings (TSLA 380→313, GOOGL 352→320, INTC 105→92). If they fa

I. Fundamentals: Two Engines Determine Valuation The core focus of this earnings report is whether the two main threads — Server CPU and Foundry — can deliver a turning point. 1. Server CPU: The Core Engine for Earnings Growth Although declining PC sales pose a headwind, Intel is offsetting this with stronger CPU pricing power and AI demand. More critically, Agentic AI is expected to significantly boost server CPU demand, with the GPU/CPU ratio projected to drop from 2× to 1.1–1.4×. Leveraging the strong stickiness of x86 in the enterprise sector, Intel is well-positioned to become a key beneficiary of enterprise-grade Agentic AI. Server CPU revenue is projected to grow at a 28% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. 2. Foundry Business: A Turning Point Has Emerged Front-end manu

I. Fundamentals: Strong Deliveries Come at the Cost of Profit and Cash Flow Tesla's overall Q2 deliveries beat expectations, and the full-year delivery guidance was raised. However, gross margins and EPS are expected to come under pressure and trend lower, while capex has breached $25 billion and free cash flow has turned negative. The market's real focus is no longer on car sales, but rather on the execution of Robotaxi rollouts and the production ramp of Optimus. Whether Tesla can build a moat in physical AI is the true make-or-break factor for this valuation. Key Data: Deliveries (raised): 2026 raised from 1.57M → 1.67M units; 2027 from 1.82M → 1.86M units. Capex: 2026 expected at $26.8B, with FCF loss of approximately $11.4B, in line with company guidance. Robotaxi: Launched in Miami o

I. Fundamentals: Shine Fading Slightly, but the Giant Is Still Doubling Down Google's AI product Gemini has seen its reputation and rankings slip somewhat this year, but that hasn't dampened the market's long-term optimism toward the company: Buffett has placed a heavy bet on it and publicly voiced his support in a CNBC interview. Google is set to report earnings after Wednesday's close (7/22), and the results will carry significant weight for the broader market. Investors will be laser-focused on two main threads: capital expenditure and cloud revenue. However, one thing to keep in mind: expectations may already be fully priced in. Without a surprise, the post-earnings stock reaction is likely to be loud but shallow – though spillover effects could still ripple through the semiconductor s

Part 1: Market Recap July 16: S&P 500 closed at 7,533.77, up only +0.46% month-to-date in July. But during the same period, Micron (MU) plunged 26% in July, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) crashed 17.21%. The root of this semiconductor crash lies in the Korean stock market — as of today, the KOSPI index has plunged 19.53% in July. Part 2: The Three Early Warning Signs of the Crash 1️⃣ Option Warning Signs (Smart Money Was Already Moving) June 18 | DRAM saw a large bearish trade: buying the 8/21 expiry 60 Put$DRAM 20260821 60.0 PUT$  , with 50,000 contracts traded, notional value $21.75 million, still open. Same day | MU also saw a large bearish trade: buying the 6/18 expiry 990 Put

SK Hynix (SKHY) has seen extreme volatility since its listing, with IV surging to 130% — a classic setup where fundamentals are solid but short-term panic prevails, often creating opportunities for deep OTM option sellers. This post walks you through the fundamental logic, market sentiment, and the complete trade setup behind a Sell Put. Part 1: Why Won't It Fall Much? HSBC's report laid out the current situation in the Korean stock market clearly: the market is indeed facing the risk of a "Minsky moment" due to high leverage — the leverage factors that drove stock prices higher over the past few months are now reversing, and the daily rebalancing of single-stock leveraged ETFs amplifies selling pressure during downturns. HSBC estimates that if stock prices fall another 10%, just SK Hynix

The highlight of earnings season is here: TSMC reports on Thursday (July 16). This post takes you from fundamentals, volatility calculations, and large order signals all the way to strategy positioning for three scenarios — a complete guide on how to trade earnings without stepping on landmines. Part 1: Fundamentals — What Is the Market Watching? TSMC is a company that reports monthly results, so revenue and profit are public information that has largely been priced into the stock price well in advance. Market expectations for this report are very high: full-year revenue guidance is expected to be raised to 40%, gross margin above 67%, 2026 capex raised to $56 billion, with total capex over 2026–2028 expected to reach $206 billion. The two most closely watched metrics are gross margin and

Earnings season is here, and many traders want to use options to catch big moves. But earnings options are exactly where most people get burned: they get the direction right, yet still lose money. Today we'll cover two key things: how to properly estimate earnings-related volatility, and how to understand IV Crush — "the buyer's enemy and the seller's friend." Part 1: Volatility Is Not a Gut Feeling How much a stock will move after earnings isn't something you need to guess — the market has already priced in the expected range. The calculation is straightforward, using the ATM Straddle: Straddle Price ≈ At-the-Money Call Premium + At-the-Money Put Premium Market's Expected Move ≈ Straddle Price ÷ Current Stock Price This is your baseline: only when the actual price move exceeds this number

$TSLA$ Key News: Cybercab autonomous electric vehicle enters mass production at the Texas factory, aiming to increase utilization to 50-60 hours per week. Energy segment emerges as a new growth driver; Shanghai energy storage factory operational; $200 billion budgeted for AI and Energy sectors in 2026. FSD advances localized training in China, though constrained by regulations, using existing data for tuning. Options Analysis: Current Implied Volatility (IV) is relatively high, indicating market expectation for significant price movement. Overall sentiment leans bullish. This Week (2/13): Expected to swing widely within $400 - $430. Next Week (2/20): The range may widen to $395 - $440. Key Support: $400 - $405. This interval has highly concentrated put option (PUT) open interest, forming a

Hello everyone. Today, I'd like to use the Ctrip stock crash incident to discuss managing short put positions.What Happened:💡 Cause: On January 14th, based on China's Anti-Monopoly Law, the State Administration for Market Regulation formally launched an investigation into Ctrip for suspected abuse of market dominance.💡 Impact on Stock Price: Ctrip's US-listed stock (Ticker: TCOM) closed at $75.68 on January 13th and plummeted 17% to close at $62.78 on January 14th. Ctrip's Hong Kong-listed stock (Ticker: 09961) closed at HKD 569 on January 14th and fell sharply intraday, down 20% to HKD 452 on January 15th.💡 Impact on Business: Ctrip issued an announcement stating that all company operations are normal and that the investigation has not yet had a material impact on its business.Changes in

$TSLA$Key News:Analyst New Street raised Tesla's target price to $600 (from $520), maintaining a Buy rating, expected to boost the stock price.Tesla stock fell 4.14% to $432.96, primarily due to BYD outselling Tesla in two major European markets (Germany) (BYD surged to 23,306 units, Tesla declined to 19,390 units), sparking market concerns.Options Analysis:Current Implied Volatility (IV) is very high, indicating market expectation for sharp price swings. Sentiment is slightly bullish, but institutions have already bought large put options for hedging, increasing volatility risk.This Week (1/9): Expected to swing widely within $425 - $450.Next Week (1/16): The range may widen to $420 - $460.Key Support: $420 - $430. $430 is this week's key support; $420 is a dense defensive line for next w