One-sentence theme for today:
Storage earnings are wrapping up and entering a valuation re-pricing phase; gold is breaking out on rising rate-cut expectations; SPCX faces its first massive lock-up expiry. The common thread across all three: it's not a time to chase highs, but a stage to position cautiously at support levels via Sell Puts.
I. Storage Sector: Earnings Behind Us, Entering Valuation Adjustment Phase
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SanDisk (SNDK): Down ~10.7% pre-market, breaking below the 120-day moving average, with next-quarter revenue guidance below consensus.
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Western Digital (WDC): Down ~14% pre-market, still holding above the 120-day MA; results fell short of the elevated expectations set by STX's earnings.
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Key variable: SNDK disclosed an aggregate LTA revenue floor of $93.9 billion — establishing a valuation ceiling and triggering a sector-wide re-pricing.
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Approach: All five U.S.-listed storage names (SKHY, MU, SNDK, STX, WDC) have now reported earnings, with mixed guidance for next quarter. In the near term, the sector is in valuation adjustment mode — not a time to aggressively chase upside. However, the long-term value thesis remains intact, so staggered Sell Puts at strong support levels (with a willingness to take assignment) are a reasonable way to position.
II. Gold: Rate-Cut Expectations Ignite, Technicals Turn Bullish
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Spot gold surged 4%, driven by the probability of a September rate hold rising to 45% (i.e., rising rate-cut expectations). Technically, gold has reclaimed both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
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Approach: The trend is turning bullish, but after such a sharp rally, a retest of support levels is likely. Don't chase at current levels. On a pullback to support, use Sell Puts as a way to gain bullish exposure (GLD's strongest Put wall is around 350; a reference Delta of -0.20 is a reasonable equilibrium zone).
III. SPCX: First Massive Lock-Up Expiry Today
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Today (Thursday, August 6), approximately $101 billion worth of SpaceX shares faces its first lock-up expiry.
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Approach: First observe whether the stock can stabilize under selling pressure. If it holds key support (around 100) despite the massive expiry, then consider positioning via Sell Puts on dips. If it breaks below, don't catch the falling knife — wait for stabilization.
IV. Notable Block Trades (Where Smart Money Is Setting Defenses)
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NVDA: September 4-expiry 190 Sell Put$NVDA 20260904 190.0 PUT$ , opening 63,000 contracts, annualized yield ~11.24% → trader betting it's difficult to break below 190 before September.
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SPCX: September 18-expiry 70 Sell Put$SPCX 20260918 70.0 PUT$ , opening 20,000 contracts, annualized yield ~12.6% → betting it's difficult to break below 70 before September.
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How to read these: Both are Sell Puts at lower levels — collecting premium while drawing a floor. These can serve as reference anchors for selecting your own Sell Put strike prices.
V. The Core Theme: S&P 500 Sell Put (Policy Tailwind)
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The Trump Account (U.S. child savings and investment account) launched on 7/4, with 7 million accounts already registered. Funds are default-invested in S&P 500 ETFs (initial default: SPYM, alternatives include IVV, VTI, SPTM, ITOT).
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Since the account launch, the S&P 500 has risen 3% — and ongoing passive buying represents a structural tailwind.
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Approach: For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view on the S&P 500, using Sell Puts on SPY / S&P 500 ETFs to buy on dips is a more attractive alternative to chasing higher prices outright.
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy sharing, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts carry assignment obligations and asymmetric downside risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, and manage position sizes appropriately. Investing involves risk.
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