NBIS: MY 2030 Estimate

Here's my 2030 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ estimate:

-> 5GW capacity is contracted by YE 26 with 1GW capacity to be deployed per year from FY 27.

-> Mid-term ACV is ~$20-25M as per management (for reference it used to be ~$12M).

So a BULL case model would look something like this:

5.2 GW connected capacity by 2030 on a blended ARR/MW of $14M (that's a realistic haircut on utilization, mix, and timing vs the $20-25M forecasted.

5,200 MW * $14M = $72.8B ARR

With EBITDA margins forecasted to stabilize near 45%... we're then looking at ~$32.7B in EBITDA.

Bull case multiple: 25x

Base case multiple: 18x

Bear case multiple: 13x

25x * $32.7B -> $817B

18x * $32.7B -> $588B

13x * $32.7B -> $425B

Or go more conservative (which is fair) and go 13x * 75% of the forecasted EBITDA.

13x * $24.5B -> $318B

EV is currently $78B.