Here's my 2030 $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ estimate: -> $950M in revenue in 2030 (41% CAGR from today / midpoint of management guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins (bull case) -> $330M in EBITDA -> 30% EBITDA margins (base case) -> $285M in EBITDA -> $330M in EBITDA multiplied by 30x EBITDA (bull case) gives us a $9.9B EV (vs $2.4B today) -> $285M in EBITDA multiplied by 25x EBITDA (base case) gives us a $7.1B EV (vs $2.4B today).

3 highest conviction themes long-term are: 1. Robotics -> $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$: Perception play growing ~49% YoY. -> $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$: Pure humanoid bet. -> $Regal Rexnord(RRX)$: A way to ride the 300x boom in actuators. -> $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: Higher risk (feels like a venture bet) but a 4D LiDAR on robotics. Can even include $Micron Technology(MU)$ in this basket. And then extend this out to rare earths, critical metals etc as well...

Two names I think people need to understand more: 1. $Aehr Test(AEHR)$: -> Now given back nearly all of earnings gain (which was +40%). -> So many names map back to $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ -> Guiding for $140M (midpoint) which is ~170% growth from FY26 expected revenue for 20x sales. -> Not cheap...but certainly a big opportunity when you take into account $100M backlog too. 2. $Fluence Energy, Inc.(FLNC)$: -> Now given back more than the Q1 earnings jump -> FY26 revenue guidance is $3.2B - $3.6B and the current MC is $2.5B. -> And then there's $5.6B in backlog which DOES NOT include the hyperscaler p

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I always take what Elon says with a pinch of salt but directionally he's been correct almost every time. Here's what he's saying on the robotics future: 1. Reinforced Optimus will be potentially the biggest product ever. -> Optimus 3 targets 1M units/year -> Optimus 4 targets 10M units/year Think of the numbers on that in terms of potential revenue: Assuming ~$30k value and selling all units (very broad assumption): -> Optimus 3 = $30B/year -> Optimus 4 = $300B/year Longer term remember Elon calls the revenue potential "north of $10 trillion." Probably early. Very early. But directionally he's consistently correct and this has to give you some confidence in the robotics future:

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Just as bullish on $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost). A reminder on how I see it at $180+ -> $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA. -> $Cognex(CGNX)$ traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth). -> Give $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B. > Add in $250M in net cash -> 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some ai trading ideas with you! 1 $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ is nearly back at highs after the space / high beta sell off. Reminder: Set to hit $150M in revenue by FY29 which means it's growing ~32% CAGR over the next 3 years. Whilst trading at 8x sales vs a company like $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ at 32x sales. Again, not making the claim that $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ should trade in line with $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ but for similar growth forecasts, I'm not sure the difference should in multiple for be fo

Probably worth a read for those who have lost a bit of faith in robotics plays like $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ at $2.5B MC or Harmonic Drive (6324) at $4.3B MC or $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$. Note this is just a look at US TAM & this a more bullish take. ~170 million Americans are employed * $65k average salary = $11T (today). There is no world where robots replace humans entirely but figuring out a fair % is the way to do it. By 2040: Here's the key industries (not an exhaustive list): 1. Manufacturing: ~12.8M workers at avg wage $58k -> total wage pool of $740B. -> $BMW.NE, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$,

Actually stop for a second and think where we are in the AI cycle. 1. CPO with $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$, $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$, $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$, $Lumentum(LITE)$ etc is a 2027-2029 story. -> We have some CPO names trading less than 3x 2027 revenues with revenues growing ~12x over the next 18 months. 2. Neoclouds like $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ is a 2025-2030 onwards story. Jensen literally said "take care of you." -> $27B

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ over the last 5 years: +65% $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ over the last 5 years: +95% This is one of the best businesses in the world lagging the market. Here's how I value AWS alone If AWS grows at just 15% CAGR for the next 7 years, they'll have $286B in revenue in 2032. At 45% operating income, that brings in $128.7B in operating income. With a conservative 15x multiple you're looking at a $1.9T Cloud business over the next few years. The total $AMZN valuation today is $2.25T. I don't think $AMZN is a 3-4x opportunity. But it's a solid way to compound your money over a 5-year period.Image

Here's what you need to know about this 10x opportunity $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ ImageI've been investing into $LMND for a long time now and I've built the position to be the biggest in my portfolio now. I'd love to welcome counter arguments to the below thesis so please do come forward and attack the name if you disagree... I have a big position in $LMND now (relative to the size of my portfolio) purely because I believe the opportunity ahead when they inflect to profitability will be huge. To be honest, it's one of the few names in the market that I feel very comfortable loading up on at today's prices. I write about $LMND in alot of my newsletter and my spreadsheets for my paid subs so here goes. This one is long but I hope it helps a few of you:

The stock market saw the biggest intraday swing ever today. We are hours away from the largest economy in the world levying a 104% tariff on the second largest economy in the world. Bond yields are now above 4.2% - higher than Liberation Day. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Fwd PE is 18x. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is now trading at a Fwd PE similar to 2009. It's an incredible opportunity. Here's a one-page investment thesis:Image