苏36
08-20 16:11
If I had to choose, I’d rather own the “toll collector” in the memory cycle than the companies forced to absorb higher costs.

The key point is that rising memory prices are no longer an isolated semiconductor story. They are spreading downstream—from smartphones to GPUs and AI infrastructure. Xiaomi’s adjusted profit fell 42.6% year over year as higher memory costs squeezed margins, while Intel’s Arc Pro B70 prices have reportedly risen sharply in some markets.

That tells me pricing power currently sits upstream. But I would not blindly chase memory stocks after their huge run. The better strategy is to own the suppliers with strong pricing power, healthy balance sheets and long-term AI demand, while avoiding companies whose margins are being compressed.

In short: follow the money upstream, but wait for valuation to give you an entry point. The Treasury’s intervention may calm bonds temporarily, but it does not solve the underlying memory shortage.

@Marktomarket [正经]

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Comments

  • snoozii
    08-20 16:42
    snoozii
    Valuation is still the whole game here. Memory names already price in a lot, and any growth wobble this earnings season can turn into a nasty multiple reset fast
  • NormaHansen
    08-20 16:42
    NormaHansen
    HBM is where the squeeze really shows up. In AI servers that memory bill is getting chunky, so upstream pricing power still looks stronger than the box builders
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