Congrats to $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ for delivering P3 results for the cancer vaccine 🧬 Even though I'm no longer a shareholder, I'm genuinely happy to see the trial succeed. That said, the price reaction makes no sense to me. A Phase 3 win was fairly likely given the clear efficacy shown in Phase 2. Now the real challenge is scaling this personalized therapy into a $10B+ franchise to justify a $40B valuation (50/50 split with Merck). At the end of the day, between $25 and $100 basically nothing has changed. If anything, CMV failed and Norovirus is at risk. We'll see how it plays out, but looking back, I'd make the same call to sell and redeploy into better opportunities. Then again, watching how the market's been behaving lately, som
Moderna Doubles in a Day on mRNA Cancer Vaccine Data — Still Chaseable?
Moderna +176.97% to $174.38; Merck +12.60%. Their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine intismeran autogene plus Keytruda hit both survival endpoints in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 melanoma trial — the platform's first Phase 3 oncology win. BofA took its target to $170 from $40, yet the 23-analyst consensus is still Hold at $78.78, most models unrevised. Shorts lost an estimated $4.8bn. Against that: full data unpublished, LTM revenue $2.23bn and falling 27.6%. Chase the platform, buy Merck for the royalty, or wait for the data?
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