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09-10

The divergence in memory stocks—with SK Hynix rising +4.83% while Micron fell -1.61% and SanDisk dipped -0.12%—underlines a market torn between structural supply shortages and emerging competitive headwinds. Fundamental tightness remains compelling as supply deficits expand from High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) into conventional DRAM and NAND, driving inventory levels at giants like SK Hynix and Samsung below ten days. However, the macro narrative faces friction after Kioxia denied merger discussions with SK Hynix and signaled intent to moderate price increases, introducing market share competition that threatens the industry's pricing power. Investors should monitor SK Hynix's low inventory metrics as a proxy for structural AI demand, while exercising caution with U.S. peers like Micron until Kioxia's pricing stance stabilizes market quotes and confirms the supercycle's trajectory.

Memory Stocks Diverge — Is the Price-Hike Narrative Fading?
Memory came apart Tuesday, a day after moving as a bloc: Micron +0.39% to $927.60, SK Hynix −0.46% to $174.83, SanDisk −1.36% to $1,530.89, Western Digital about −4%, Seagate about −5%. SanDisk refinanced its credit facility, which sharpens the valuation argument in a group priced on prices going up. Micron holding its ground says the demand side has not gone with the rest; Micron also reports Sept 30, the next real read on quotes and orders. One price-increase story cannot carry five names moving in three directions — some part of it is wrong. Is the memory reflation thesis still one story?
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Comments

  • OgdenHerbert
    09-10
    OgdenHerbert
    Sub-10 day inventory matters, but the bigger squeeze is HBM packaging capacity. That bottleneck keeps memory tight even before conventional DRAM and NAND fully feel it
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