While Kioxia ruling out deeper

While Kioxia ruling out deeper SK Hynix ties and resisting further NAND price hikes introduces a temporary pricing headwind, it does not mean the structural memory supercycle is over. SK Hynix and Samsung’s finished inventories dropping below 10 days—coupled with HBM4 production cannibalizing standard DRAM wafer capacity—highlights unprecedented physical supply constraints across AI datacenters. Kioxia’s strategy to protect long-term market share may cap short-term spot price spikes in NAND, but severe structural tightness in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and enterprise DRAM continues to underpin SK Hynix's structural earnings power.

Memory Stocks Diverge — Is the Price-Hike Narrative Fading?

Memory came apart Tuesday, a day after moving as a bloc: Micron +0.39% to $927.60, SK Hynix −0.46% to $174.83, SanDisk −1.36% to $1,530.89, Western Digital about −4%, Seagate about −5%. SanDisk refinanced its credit facility, which sharpens the valuation argument in a group priced on prices going up. Micron holding its ground says the demand side has not gone with the rest; Micron also reports Sept 30, the next real read on quotes and orders. One price-increase story cannot carry five names moving in three directions — some part of it is wrong. Is the memory reflation thesis still one story?

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LisaEffie
09-10
LisaEffie
HBM and enterprise DRAM tightness still looks structural to me. HBM4 starts are eating standard DRAM wafer slots, so even flat AI demand keeps baseline supply tighter than people think

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