9/15 Pre-Market: Triple Witching Convergence

OptionsBB
09-15

I. Key Events

Friday 9/18 Triple Witching: Massive Open Interest Expiring
Stock prices tend to converge toward the largest open interest zones (Gamma pinning effect). For specifics, refer to individual stock options GEX analysis (⚠️ note the App upgrade). → Directional flexibility is limited this week, making range-bound/seller strategies more suitable.

Software ETF (IGV) Surges 5%, Cybersecurity Leads
JPMorgan believes AI is pushing cybersecurity from "optional spending" to "mandatory investment." Watch for pullback opportunities in PANW and CRWD.

Crude Oil Maintains High-Level Volatility Above 100
Trump stated on 9/14 that "Iran is eager to reach a deal, and the U.S. is open to it." → A de-escalation signal; oil's upward momentum may weaken — watch for a spike-and-retreat.

Citi: Wednesday's Rate Hike Characterized as "Calibration/Fine-Tuning," Viewed as a Dovish Hike
Citi's research team expects the 25bp hike on 9/17 to be a "calibration" rather than a continuation of an aggressive tightening cycle. → A dovish hike; if the market interprets it as such, the negative is exhausted and risk appetite may recover.

II. Notable Block Trades (Directional Signals)

Buy Side (Clear Direction)

  • TSLA (Tesla) Bought the 2027-06-17 expiry 290 Put, volume 10,000 contracts, notional $21.55 million (largest of the day). Long-dated bearish hedge.

  • VIX (Volatility Index) Bought the 2026-12-16 expiry 21 Call, volume 22,500 contracts, notional $5.197 million. Betting on a volatility rebound / turning-point warning.

  • GLD (Gold ETF) Bought the 2026-11-20 expiry 430 Call, volume 15,000 contracts, notional $9.15 million. Bullish on gold.

  • XOM (Exxon Mobil) Bought the 2026-12-18 expiry 190 Call, volume 10,000 contracts, notional $3.3 million. Bullish on energy.

  • GLW (Corning) Bought the 2026-10-16 expiry 165 Call, volume 7,350 contracts, notional $3.8588 million. Bullish.

Index Bearish Buys (Hedging Against Broader Market Pullback)

  • QQQ (Nasdaq ETF) Bought the 2026-10-16 expiry 713 Put, volume 4,646 contracts, notional $6.969 million (sweep order). Post-Triple-Witching pullback hedge.

  • SPY (S&P ETF) Bought the 2026-10-16 expiry 724 Put, volume 5,721 contracts, notional $2.2598 million (speculative). Same-direction hedge.

Sell Side (Premium Collection / Range Bets)

  • TSM (TSMC) Sold the 2026-10-16 expiry 420 Put, volume 6,301 contracts, notional $9.5145 million. Collecting premium/taking assignment below 420.

  • GDX (Gold Miners ETF) Sold the 2028-12-15 expiry 75 Put, volume 4,500 contracts, notional $4.7385 million. Long-term bet it won't break below 75.

  • XLY (Consumer Discretionary ETF) Sold the 2027-01-15 expiry 115 Put, volume 5,000 contracts, notional $3.1 million.

  • XLF (Financial ETF) Sold the 2026-09-30 expiry 55 Put, volume 13,500 contracts, notional $310,500.

  • CVX (Chevron) Sold the 2026-11-20 expiry 240 Call, volume 3,200 contracts, notional $924,800. Capping upside.

Combo/Structure Trades

  • CRWV (CoreWeave) Multiple two-sided sells: Sold the 2026-10-30 expiry 55 Put (two trades of 6,500 contracts each) + sold the 2026-10-09 expiry 97 Call, 102 Call, and the 2027-03-19 expiry 135 Call. Likely a short strangle/wide strangle, betting on range-bound oscillation.

One-sentence read: Index-side Put buying for hedging (SPY/QQQ) + stock-side seller premium collection (TSM/GDX/CRWV/XLE) coexist — institutions expect a defensive broader market around Triple Witching with individual stocks range-bound, consistent with the "Triple Witching convergence" theme. TSLA's large long-dated bearish Put is worth noting.

Today's one-sentence approach: Triple Witching convergence week — options expiration pinning + dovish rate-hike expectations → limited market flexibility, range-bound bias. Strategically, keep index Put hedges, sell premium at support levels on individual stocks (referencing block trades: TSM 420, GDX 75, XLE 66). Watch for cybersecurity pullbacks in PANW/CRWD and gold dip-buying. ⚠️ For specific convergence ranges, refer to GEX analysis.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the underlying at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • MariaEvelina
    09-15
    MariaEvelina
    AI makes security spend sticky, but margin is the part I care about here. CRWD can keep growing and still get hit if R&D stays this hot lol
  • T20211222001
    09-15
    T20211222001
    TSLA max pain around 255 fits the pin pretty well. For this setup, wide short strangles make more sense than forcing direction
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